GREATEST JUMPING SHOW ON EARTH: It’s Cheltenham next week! Britain’s top tipster, Daqman, is getting ready for the action and from Tuesday to Friday, a week in advance of the festival, he prepares you, the punter, with a daily file of his stats and facts.
DAY-1 CHELTENHAM FILE TODAY: Which outsiders can you back and which favourites can you lay on next Tuesday’s opening card? Which trainers win which races? In what ratings parameters do the winners fall?
TODAY’S RACING: Daqman has three bets from Newcastle, Market Rasen and Southwell.
LAYS LOGIC IN SUPREME STRIKES
CHELTENHAM TUESDAY, March 11: LAYS LOGIC: Outsiders score and the favourite has been beaten 13 times out of 14 in the 4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (ex-Boodles), which in the last decade has had winners at 10-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (three times) and 80-1. The 1.20 Supreme is also fertile ground for laying the market leader.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Only two outright favourites have won in 15 seasons yet only one winner has been bigger than 9-1 SP since 2013. Winning ages: 5 and 6 are 14/15. Ratings (last 10 years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154, 153, 153, 148, 150, 147
Willie Mullins has won this seven times among 15 Irish winners out of the last 24 (17 had raced in bumpers); 23 of the last 26 winners had won the last day; 12 of the last 15 had won a Graded contest.
LAYS LOGIC: Recent losing favourites which were backable lays: Tullyhill (2024) 8th 11-4; Facile Vega (2023) 2nd 9-4; Asterion Forlonge (2020) 4th 9-4, Getabird (2018) 11th 7-4; Min (2016) 2nd 15-8.
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy) SP: 10 favourites (seven odds-on) have won in the last 14 seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7 (12 out of 13). Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151, 144, 164, 159, 162, 157.
Willie Mullins has won six out of 10; Nicky Henderson four of the last 14. Some 15 out of 17 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Eleven out of 14 had between three and five (completed) chase races, always in the first two.
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) Ages 7 and 8: nine out of 14. Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, 139, 143, 140, 146, 143
Twelve winners of the last 14 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; 12 out of 14 had won over at least 3m.
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) Eight SP favourites scored out of 14. Ages: no winners older than 7 unless a previous winner of the race.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142, 158, 148, 140, 159, 155. Trainers: Willie Mullins 10 out of 16; Henry De Bromhead two of the last five.
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) 10 winning favourites since 2010. Ages 6 and 7 won 11 out of 15.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159, 161, 165, 173, 169. Trainers: Nicky Henderson 6, Willie Mullins 5 in the last 15 years. Thirteen winners out of the 15 had previously won a Grade-1 hurdle.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Just one successful favourite in 14 years with most winners at enormous prices: 80-1, 40-1, 33-1 (three times), 25-1 (twice) and 18-1. That’s only since 2012.
Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, 138, 125, 137, 125, 122 with winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 9lb. Trainers: Gordon Elliott (3), Paul Nicholls (3). Ireland currently seven in a row.
LAYS LOGIC: 13 losing favourites sound good but recent favourites have started at up to 15-2, and you need strong nerves even with the short shots.
In 2023, Tekao (3-1 fav) going easily when mistake three out; 2022 Gaelic Warrior led last, beaten a short-head at 13-8 fav.
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup, now a novices handicap) In the four years 2015 to 2018, when run over 4m, this produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden. But since 2020 the race has been reduced to 3m 6f and this year it is no longer restricted to amateur riders.
Three SP favourites won (2011-13) and, though only one has scored in the last 10 years, the last four winners have been 7-2, 2-1, 10-11 fav, 15-8.
Ages: 7 and 8 are 10 out of 14. Twelve out of 15 had won over at least 3m.
PERSEVERING WITH PERCY
⭕ 2.05 Market Rasen, today Percy Veering is 3-8 over fences and ran well here last time over the shorter three mile trip when he had a good battle with favourite Pats Dream – just coming off second best (pair finished 13 lengths clear).
He was staying on to good effect and should be suited by this extreme trip.
Concetto was heading the 9.30am Betdaq Betting Exchange market. He’s down in the weights and Ben Smith takes off a further 8lb but needs to improve after a lacklustre run at Newcastle last time out.
Basford has plenty of placed efforts to his name but this looks a little tougher than his recent assignments and he looks more of a place prospect here.
GO WEST
⭕ 4.22 Newcastle: Westmorian’s fitness has to be taken on trust after a 272 day break but he’s won after a lengthy absence before and trainer Grant Tuer is in good form.
His career form when rated 70 (today’s mark) or lower is: 3112 and he might be the safest option in a race where Blackjack looks harshly treated after his recent course and distance win and Harry Did has been a beaten favourite in all four races he has been sent off market leader.
WONDERFUL NAP
⭕ 6.30 Southwell: James Fanshawe saddled a winner here last week and can do so again tonight with Wonder whose recent defeats at Wolverhampton read a lot better subsequently.
He was beaten six lengths by Roaring Legend in January but that one has won both his subsequent starts – the latest by five lengths at Lingfield.
He also bumped into one when third to Sax Appeal last time out – that one has been out again and won by just the 14 lengths !!!
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
2.05 Market Rasen (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win PERCY VEERING
4.22 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 4.0pts win WESTMORIAN
★ 6.30 Southwell (win 10, nap)
BET 9.1pts win WONDER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
