FOUR NAPS UP OUT OF FIVE: Daqman had two 10-point hits yesterday, including his fourth best bet out of five, with Magical Roundabout (nap, WON 4-6) and Paddy Again (WON 10-11):
WON 9-4 SILVINIACO CONTI
WON 6-4 JOSSES HILL
2nd 11-8 AT FISHERS CROSS
WON 1-2 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE
WON 4-6 MAGICAL ROUNDABOUT
THAT’S 17 WINNING BETS IN FIVE DAYS: That kept up Daqman’s rapid-fire returns tally since the Aintree Festival, with 17 successful bets over five consecutive days.
TRIAL SEASON STARTS THIS WEEKEND: Today Daqman looks forward to Epsom, as the Guineas and Derby trials start at Newbury and Navan this weekend, followed by the Newmarket Craven meeting next week.
TOMORROW: DAQMAN GOES BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON
THURSDAY: DAQMAN’S SCOTTISH NATIONAL ABC GUIDE
FRI-SAT: DAQMAN CHALLENGE: 9-0 UP ON PRICEWISE
CLASSIC SEARCH: WHERE IS THE DERBY WINNER?
The 2014 Derby winner has already been beaten. Or at least there’s a 60% chance that he has. Even Sea The Stars, ranked sixth best Derby winner in 40 years, lost first time out – only fourth – at The Curragh in July 2008, though he was never defeated again in eight races.
Six of the last 10 Epsom heroes were beaten somewhere along their path to glory, three of them in their Classic year.
North Light, Pour Moi, Authorized and Sea The Stars were all beaten as juveniles, with Pour Moi losing again on his three-year-old reappearance.
Newbury and Navan kick off the three-year-old trials this weekend, with the Greenham in England and the Ballysax in Ireland, both on Saturday.
The Greenham has 20 left in, among them a Guineas punt over the weekend, Night Of Thunder, for the in-form Richard Hannon stable. Kingman (John Gosden) and Berkshire (Paul Cole) are among his likely Newbury opponents.
The Guineas and the Dante are the best Derby guides, though Ruler Of The World (Chester Vase) and Pour Moi (Prix Greffulhe) won different trials.
Dante winners of the Derby were North Light, Motivator and Authorized but Workforce was beaten, second at York. Guineas winners of the Derby were Camelot and Sea The Stars. Beaten in that first Classic at Newmarket were New Approach and Sir Percy, both runners-up.
KEY 2014 DERBY TRIALS (based on last 10 years): May 3 Saint-Cloud, Prix Greffulhe; May 3 Newmarket, 2,000 Guineas; May 8 Chester Vase; May 14 York, Dante Stakes.
KEY STATS (based on last 10 years): Only one winner in the decade was unraced at two. But just four winners took major two-year-old trials (Racing Post Trophy 2, Dewhurst 2, National Stakes 1), and only four were unbeaten in their careers.
The winners’ official ratings as they lined up for the Derby were: New Approach (126+), Camelot (121), Sea The Stars (121), Sir Percy (121), Motivator (117), Authorized (116), North Light (113), Pour Moi (113), Ruler Of The World (109), Workforce (108).
Five at the front of the market for this year’s race at Epsom on Saturday June 7 already have ratings as big or bigger than some of these winners. They are:
KEY RATINGS: AUSTRALIA (currently rated 117) entered for the 2,000 Guineas and Dante Stakes; KINGSTON HILL (rated 120) 2,000 Guineas, Dante Stakes; BE READY (rated 111) Greenham, 2,000 Guineas, Dante.
GEOFFREY CHAUCER (rated 112) Ballysax Stakes; 2,000 Guineas; Dante. BERKSHIRE (rated 113) Greenham, 2,000 Guineas, Dante.
* Look out next week for my ante-post bet on the 2,000 Guineas.
TODAY’S RACING:
Pontefract stage their first meeting of the new season and it’s a track I like. Quirky with an uphill finish.
There’s a decent class 2 handicap on the card too. The New Betting Hall Handicap at 4.15 for which 11 now go to post. The Luca Cumani trained Ajman Bridge being a significant non runner.
I like previous course and distance winners here at Pontefract but the two in this race, Easy Terms and Las Verglas Star, are both reappearing after lengthy absences and the fitness edge may lie elsewhere.
Romantic Settings for Richard Fahey (who won the race last season) has the class to win this but his ‘last of four’ effort on reappearance at Doncaster, even at a higher level, doesn’t inspire too much confidence. He was beaten nearly 28 lengths that day and although the step back in distance will help, I prefer the chances of Sennockian Star for the in-form stable of Mark Johnston. He finished 7th of 10 in the Winter Derby Trial race at Lingfield last time out, a Listed race in its own right. Sennockian Star seems versatile ground wise, one of his better efforts came on soft ground at York when second to Sam Sharp in a class 2 handicap at York. This is very much a grade he can win in and the trip is spot on. The BETDAQ price of 15 at the time of writing stands out as good value and I will go in win and place (around 4.0 at the time of writing).
For the nap, and a bid to extend the recent good run, I’m playing a little more speculatively.
At Southwell, Teajaybe stands out in the 3.30 race. He absolutely romped home over course, distance and same grade last time out beating Adili by eight lengths – and that was eased down too ! It’s no surprise to see him up 8lb in the weights but it might not be a sufficient anchor. Chief rival Honoured won a weak claimer as easily as his 1/12 starting price indicated he should last time out but I have big reservations about the trip for this one and I also think the handicapper has more control over him, unlike the selection who is trading around 2.86 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) TEAJAYBE (3.30 Southwell)
BET 2.5pts win and 2.5 points place SENNOCKIAN STAR (4.15 Pontefract)
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