AND THE WINNER IS? DAQMAN: And The Man (WON 7-2) gave Daqman another winning day yesterday – more than 10 points profit – with Taunton passing its inspection for more heavy-ground racing this afternoon.
ROLL ON THE NATIONAL FOR ROCKY: Today Daqman hopes for some ‘overs’ on the Grand National, finding a Rocky edge to stand on in the mud at 27.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
It’s the Rocky borrow show! The only point in ante-post betting is to get a bigger price than is likely on the day of the race. Round the world you’ll hear this called borrow, bonus, leverage, overs, and other names for the edge you obtain.
You can add words like trade, lay and hedge in these days of exchange betting, meaning that, if the price you ‘buy’ does shorten dramatically between now and the big day at Aintree on April 4, you can then sell, lay – whatever – to ensure a profit between the two prices, the offer you took and the new, much shorter one.
With one eye on the weights – due out at the beginning of February – I took 28.0 Rocky Creek for this year’s race. He was 29.0 when I confirmed his place in my Horses To Follow yesterday. He’s 27.0 as I write, so I’ll charge him to the account at a split-the-difference 28.0.
What is it about Rocky? Well, he’s a big, beautiful, clean jumping galloper who acts on any going and has already stayed the Hennessy trip, second at Newbury in November.
But the point I want to make, vis a vis the weights, is that he looks perfectly poised to show his Graded-race class, likely to be slotted into the handicap where the winners now come from.
In this age of taming the National, things have changed. Though Auroras Encore won with a featherweight last year, the new norm is a rating up to 157, with a weight up to 11st 6lb.
That’s the exact rating and racing weight of Neptune Collonges trained, like Rocky Creek, by Paul Nicholls, champion trainer at the time and leading this year’s table. Check out the four recent results before Aurora’s Encore:
157 Neptune Collonges (11st 6lb) in 2012
150 Ballabriggs (11st) in 2011
153 Don’t Push It (11st 5lb) in 2010
148 Mon Mome (11st) in 2009
So what can Rocky Creek hope for from the handicapper at the unveiling of the weights? Well, if he keeps him to his current mark, Rocky will race off 157 and could get 11st 6lb, so running as a dead ringer for Neptune Collonges. BUT…
There’s always a ’but’, isn’t there! In this case, several of them. Rocky Creek is only eight years old, and that age group has won just the one National in 25 years (Bindaree 2002).
The general trend in handicaps toward the youngsters as fences are altered has not happened in the National, with six of the last eight winners of a double-figure age.
Another ‘but’ is that ‘Rocky’ is lightly raced, even for his age, with just 10 career runs, only seven chases. Our benchmark for eight-year-olds, Bindaree, had had 15 rounds over fences.
Paul Nicholls and the Pipes, in particular, have got at many youngsters early in their careers, sometimes overfacing them, asking big questions too soon, but (and that’s a ‘but’ in our favour) sometimes producing a baby champeen.
Horses are trained to be raced and, so far so good, Rocky Creek has taken everything in his stride, jumping like an old hand. Whatever happens, I think the Nicholls’ army of punters will come for him – so will many others at the current offers – and I think the horse will fulfill our sole desire: come down sharply in price and give us some ‘overs’ to play with.
TAUNTON: Meanwhile, Rocky’s stable has sidestepped the mud across the county at Taunton today. Between Ditcheat and Taunton is a lake which we used to call The Levels. It’s level all right: level water; no sign of land!
Waldorf Salad (1.40) is the first one to oppose, set to carry 12st 5lb in the opener. ‘He’s as big as Basil Fawlty’, says Venetia Williams, ‘and will come into his own when he goes chasing.’
I’m going chasing after something to beat him, as he carries a 7lb penalty and tries to nip in under the radar with this quick outing within four days of his Huntingdon romp, likely to cop for a deal more than that when the handicapper’s verdict is known.
This ploy rarely works out. Though Salad is in no way green, it was a novices’ race he won at Huntingdon, and he was 28 lengths off the winner last time he tried an open handicap.
It was here at Taunton but it was over half a mile shorter. Is he unexposed at today’s 3m? Or is this another reason why they’re asking too much of him?
I shall have a pound on Comical Red (a massive 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning), who ran his best race to date last time out, and today has what I now call the David Bridgwater aids of adding blinkers or visors to a hood, the trick that worked for The Giant Bolster at the weekend.
Will Waldorf Salad wilt, out again so soon after Huntingdon? Lettuce pray that he does, and we get an outsider up.
I’m worried about the right-handed track for Venetia’s Moujik Borget (2.40). He has two ways of running, but consistently lugs to the left.
Like Moujik Borget, Get It On wins only when fresh.
So I fancy Decoy (6.8 on BETDAQ, as I write) to adopt a front-running role, now – with Mikey Ennis’s claim – racing off an 18lb lower mark than in September.
The promising Midnight Request (3.40) is napped to beat Come On Annie over the extra trip and at the difference in weights.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points each)
LAY 10pts WALDORF SALAD, and BET 0.8pts win and place COMICAL RED (1.40 Taunton)
BET 5pts win DECOY (2.40 Taunton)
BET 12.5pts win (nap) MIDNIGHT REQUEST (3.40 Taunton)
ANTE-POST: BET 1.1pts win ROCKY CREEK (Aintree Grand National at 28.0)
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