8-1 METEOR STREAKS HOME: My Meteor (WON 8-1), under a motionless Hayley Turner, such was her confidence, edged Daqman into the black with a 20-point win profit and a hefty place return on BETDAQ on lady-riders’ day at Carlisle yesterday.
FALLON FANCIED ON OUTSIDER: Daqman checks out each of the four English meetings today, two in the afternoon and two tonight, coming up with a nap which seems specially prepared for a race at Ffos Las and an 18.5 Kempton outsider, with Kieren Fallon booked.
LIGHT OF ASIA: THIS IS THE PLAN
FFOS LAS Since her defeat by Gabrial The Duke was on her first run of the season, and that she is now better off at the weights, Miss Blakeney (3.30) could reverse the placings at Salisbury in June.
But this 1m 4f winner needs a strongly-run race for her drop back to 10 furlongs, whereas Light Of Asia is stepping up to 10 after showing lack of finishing kick at a mile.
Light Of Asia’s yard is 50% in handicaps at Ffos Las and has turned the corner with a vengeance after a lean start to the season. Ed Dunlop’s current figures are 14141310, with six winners in six days last week.
Interesting that this race is the pick of four entries in four days for Light Of Asia, scattered around the country as if now is the time to press the button.
The choice is to make this solo trip to Ffos Las. But, even more interesting, all four entries were for 1m 2f races, confirming that the step up in trip is a solid plan.
Michael Bell won the first running of the fillies’ handicap (4.00) with one getting lumps of weight. He seems to have By Jupiter similarly poised, getting a concession all round, thanks to Cam Hardie’s claim: 6.0 on BETDAQ in a six-horse race sounds like value to me.
CATTERICK The North Yorkshire venue has become a speed benefit recently with seemingly very few horses able to come from off the pace. So look for those quick out of the traps.
Front-running tactics were deployed on Showtime Star (4.15) at Redcar last time out but he was caught in the closing stages on his handicap debut, finishing fourth. It was still a respectable effort and he has scope for further improvement, more so than most of his rivals.
The draw advantage is not as pronounced over six furlongs as it is over five furlongs here but, if given the choice you would always favour ‘low’, even in a small field.
The top weight Solar Spirit won this at 16-1 last year but it was soft ground then and is expected to ride much quicker today. Red Cape is a bigger danger.
He raced prominently over CD here last month and was pipped only a nose. He has since gone close at Redcar but the handicapper has rather heartlessly put the old boy (11 years) up 3lb for those defeats.
Tim Easterby, who won the 4.45 last year, has had two winners in two days and will be hoping the step up to seven furlongs will unlock a first win for the top weight, Margrets Gift, second in her last four starts. It’s worth a try as she was showing signs of staying on over six furlongs last time out when runner-up to Bearskin at Ripon.
A safer proposition however might be Marlismamma at the other end of the handicap, already proven over seven furlongs having run second to another of today’s rivals, Street Boss, at Thirsk last time out.
That was only a seller but, with a swing in the weights and Julie Burke taking a further 3lb off, Marlismamma must have every chance of turning that form around.
‘ROUGE’ IS HUGE AT BETDAQ 18.5
KEMPTON I would usually step into a Classified here, looking for a standout in the ratings, but tonight’s opener (6.00) has the entire field rated between 61 and 65. Get out of that!
Well, one answer may be that 14 of the 22 starters in the first two years of this race have been three-year-olds, but all were slammed by the older horses.
And, should we look at the top of the pile today, we find that Kieren Fallon’s mount, Rouge Nuage (6.00), drops from class 2 and class 4 handicaps to this lowly class-6. Yet 18.5 in the BETDAQ orange.
The maiden (6.30) is an interesting mix of fillies with experience and debutantes to keep one eye on in the BETDAQ market.
Momayyaz, second at Newmarket on debut, was comprehensively brushed aside (11 lengths) by Rapprochement but that one went on to contest a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood last week, his chance ruined when badly hampered.
Inflection who made a good debut here at Kempton in May (so that’s one box ticked in terms of handling the surface) and may have bumped into a good one when second to Roger Varian’s Synergise at Doncaster last time out.
I can’t have Moonvoy, who flopped at odds of 4-9 at Redcar last time out, failing to build on a promising Newmarket (Wood Ditton) debut.
Another favourite to oppose may be James Fanshawe’s Invasor Luck (8.00). Has had plenty of chances and may need to find a weaker race than this to lose his maiden tag.
Elbereth shaped with promise when third here on debut and Oisin Murphy’s mount is expected to improve significantly for that run, as most do from Andrew Balding’s stable.
Unfortunately, with a defection in the race, Elbereth has gone so short as to need a 14-pointer to land my required 20 points profit, so, instead, I shall double this one with the nap.
RIPON Almagest (8.15) won the two-miler last year off a 5lb lower mark, and there are two other CD winners in the field: Rosairlie, who was second to him in 2013, is worse off at the weights.
Mason Hindmarsh is the other CD winner, though his stable is without a single success this year. Deepsand could do with some rain.
The shape of the race seems to revolve around whether Sir Frank Morgan can get an uncontested led, as he did when beating Dr Irv at Catterick.
But, since Rosairlie and Dr Irv may remain neck and neck on the form of their 1-2 at Thirsk at this time last season, all the signs are that Almagest might be good enough, despite his weight.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points at BETDAQ offers taken)
BET 10pts win (nap) LIGHT OF ASIA (3.30 Ffos Las)
BET 4pts win BY JUPITER (4.00 Ffos Las)
BET 2.85pts win SHOWTIME STAR (4.15 Catterick)
BET 3pts win MARLISMAMMA (4.45 Catterick)
BET 1pt win and place ROUGE NUAGE (6.00 Kempton)
BET 5.5pts win INFLECTION (6.30 Kempton)
BET 4pts win ALMAGEST (8.15 Ripon)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double LIGHT OF ASIA (3.30 Ffos Las) and ELBERETH (8.00 Kempton)
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