15.5 ARKLE BET ANTE-POST: Daqman today tilts at the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham with a 15.5 offer on BETDAQ which could halve in price after his final trial in February.
THE NAP IS A LOCAL HORSE: Daqman’s nap is a first-time runner in England, a hurdles debutant for the same trainer, Paul Nicholls, on one of his county courses at Taunton.
15.5 VIBRATO THE LIKELY ARKLE TRADE
Good vibrations. Only 42 days to Cheltenham, and the BETDAQ Arkle market for the opening day tells you all you need to know.
It says that Un De Sceaux is the proverbial good thing if he gets there and that only two horses are worth a pound against him – and any remaining hiccups he might have in those last 42 days – with one of them good value at 15.5.
Paul Nicholls declared last night that Vibrato Valtat (as low as 10-1 with one bookmaker) is his Arkle horse, with Ptit Zig going elsewhere.
Forget ‘Zig’, 14-1 in several places, but being cunningly offered at 25-1 by one firm, and forget, too, ‘nearly’ horses like Sgt Reckless who, at eight, is not going to match the lung-bursting pace that the young upstarts can put in at Cheltenham.
The last eight-year-old to win it was Sizing Europe, but he was on a fabulous five-timer of novice-chase victories.
No, there are two seriously good animals against Un De Sceaux and, once the Ptit Zig defection sinks in, Vibrato Valtat is the one they’ll want.
The other ‘seriously good’ is Josses Hill but 8.8 is just about right unless you think he can improve past Un De Sceaux. I don’t think so. I think you need a price but the price must be ‘too big’ and it must be about a horse with a proper chance.
Vibrato Valtat heads for Warwick on Saturday week, according to the trade paper this morning. An easy win there and this stamina-laden French-bred (17 times in the first three from 18 starts) will be half the current offers. That’s what ante-post betting is really all about.
GUY MAY HAVE LEARNED NEW TRICKS
You need a price when you can’t trust ‘em! As if to illustrate my point yesterday – that horses at a lower level can’t be relied on to repeat their form – my nap, The Musical Guy, laid down tools when the race started in earnest.
He was soon being ridden along on the second circuit, and Sam Twiston-Davies had to work hard (for nothing; he finished ninth) for the rest of the race.
This was in complete contrast to his trainer-father Nigel’s trade-paper verdict: ‘He’s improving with age.’
Yes, Nigel, he’s learned to think. ‘A thinker’ or a ‘character’ is a horse who learns to resists the rider’s aids, avoid the pressure, and sometimes pain, of a race, and/or do things his own way.
One of my horses was a thinker par excellence. He was ‘the business’ one day at Market Rasen; we even had a private photographer there to take pictures as we proudly led him in.
First time round, he was on a tight rein, looking like a winner in waiting. On the second circuit, coming up that rise on the far side, the jockey ‘asked him’ to join the leaders.
He merely tapped him with the whip. But the horse immediately sent out distress signals. Worse. He hung his off-fore leg (nearest to the cameras!) as if it was broken.
The rider immediately pulled him up and dismounted, fearing the worse, whereupon our ‘job horse’ sauntered off toward the rail and found a bit of long grass to chew on, turning wall-eyed to the jockey with a look of: Fooled ya!
Is he all right? we demanded urgently as the pair walked slowly back to the unsaddling enclosure after the race. ‘All right? He’s cleverer than me. He ought to be on the stage!’ came the reply.
I hasten to add that the jockey in question was beyond reproach, even though he was fond of telling the same joke at every celebratory party.
‘I’ve never stopped a horse,’ he would say, ‘ but I was once asked to make sure one had an easy. The trainer never asked me again, though.
‘Cos when I got off, after finishing about fifth, he said to me: ‘well, do you think you could have beaten those in front of you, if you’d wanted.
‘I don’t know about them, I told him. But I’d be worried about them boggers behind next time we meet!’
HOOFNOTE: Stable comment: ‘We’re hoping we can draw a line through The Musical Guy’s form yesterday. We’re looking at all the possibilities but his getting a massive bump early in the race could be the reason for a seeming lack of co-operation.’
LAC LOOKS ANOTHER PEARL FOR PAUL
TAUNTON: In the absence of Remiluc (2.30), Lac Leman and Polo appear to have their novice hurdle between them.
The Wylies’ buy from Germany – he won twice on the Flat – Lac Leman is already gelded by Paul Nicholls for this English debut and has the advantage of an 11lb weight pull on Polo.
Nicholls won this race in similar circumstances with a first-time import, Pearl Swan, in 2012, and Lac Leman was a short-priced favourite on BETDAQ this morning.
Polo is gradually finding his feet over hurdles but, as a winner on the Flat in France at 1m 4f, you’d expect him to need further than today’s 17 furlongs, though the soft ground will help a son of Sholokov (his progeny love it heavy), Polo being neatly named out of a Dashing Blade mare called Poule d’Essai.
Box Office (3.30) is another winner in France looking for a winning debut in England. He’s also another with a liking for ankle-deep mud. A son of Great Pretender, who is the sire of Ptit Zig. His penchant for a soft surface is another reason why Zig is unlikely to be at home against the top young chasers on the better ground at Cheltenham.
Box Office is only four, but that also applies to his nearest market rival Avel Vor, second here in early December but continuing his run as a bridesmaid since.
I tried to grab an early lay about Hawkhill but those shrewd operators in the BETDAQ green were already wise to the circumstances regarding this unchallenged Newton Abbot winner.
Whit has changed since that win in September is not only the ground (it was good that day) but the awful reversal of form for Tim Vaughan.
Tim hasn’t had a winner from 50 runners in 32 days (Racing Post stats) and connections know that there is something gone badly wrong: five of his last 10 starters have had SPs of 50-1, 100-1 (three times) and 200-1. Not much confidence there, then.
Best ‘reckless’ outsider of the day could be Pembridge (1.30) at 47.0 the win and 7.6 a place on BETDAQ this morning for a yard that goes well in events like this at Taunton.
Pembridge has done ’nothing’ over hurdles so far but leaps up a mile in trip and that could be the makings of a daughter of Kayf Tara who gets in here off bottomweight.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength; 10 is a banker)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place PEMBRIDGE (1.30 Taunton)
BET 8pts win (nap) LAC LEMAN (2.30 Taunton)
BET 6pts win BOX OFFICE (3.30 Taunton)
ANTE-POST (win 50): BET 3.5pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (Arkle Chase, Cheltenham, March 10)
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