STATS DUG OUT 20-1 GOLD DOWN UNDER: Gold Trip, one of the top three to tick four of the boxes in our ABC guide to the £2.5m Melbourne Cup, won at 20-1 in the early hours of this morning. But Gold Trip would have been top of the list had Daqman gambled on the missing link.
TOMORROW: BREEDERS CUP COUNTDOWN: That was just the start of an international racing week on BETDAQ, with the Breeders Cup at Keeneland scheduled for Friday and Saturday.
KEY RACE THROWS UP CUP TREBLE
There’s always next year. Daqman combed the stats and facts for the Melbourne Cup but it’s now clear that an old discarded turnkey race should be returned to the top of the list.
Cross Counter (2018) for Charlie Appleby and Joseph O’Brien’s double with Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2010) broke the home hold on the £2.5m prize.
Before that the key Aussie race to victory in the Melbourne Cup was the Caulfield Cup, run in mid-October.
Now three winners out of four in renewed home domination has reset history; punters are so far ignoring it, and the winning odds at Flemington have been good.
WON 10-1 Vow And Declare (2019) beaten a length in the Caulfield Cup.
WON 17-1 Verry Elleegant (2021) won 2020 Caulfield Cup
WON 20-1 Gold Trip (2022) beaten a head in the Caulfield Cup
Gold Trip was a truly international winner: he could be marked down for France, having moved from Fabrice Chappet at Chantilly to Ciaron Maher and David Eustace in Australia after running third in both the Paris and Saint-Cloud grand prix and fourth in the 2020 Arc.
But Newmarket-born David Eustace, son of former trainer James Eustace, could claim it for England.
He has been in Australia eight years and his partnership with former West Victoria diary farmer, Ciaron Maher, has seen a fairytale rise to training stardom, with currently 600 horses in six Australian stables.
Next year? You may need to look no further: Gold Trip was winning off top-weight for the first time since Makybe Diva in 2005. Diva was completing a Melbourne Cup hat-trick.
Yes, there’s always next year. Just ask today’s winning jockey Mark Zahra, who was under suspension and missed the 2021 winning ride on Verry Elleegant.
NO OBJECTION TO OVERRULE
⭕ 12.50 Redcar The course survived a morning inspection. Kind of. The two races on the round course (3.05 and 3.35) have both been called off after an overnight deluge leaving the straight course raceable but heavy.
Overrule has the benefit of experience and also a run on soft ground which should make him hard to beat here.
The Karl Burke trained youngster was nibbled at in the market ahead of a promising debut at Doncaster when finishing fourth in maiden which in all likelihood will work out better than this one.
He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day and should come on plenty for the experience and over the same trip can get off the mark in a race where there are big question marks over his rivals coping with the ground.
Opera Legend might be the biggest threat given he his a William Haggas trained runner. He looked one of the lesser lights from the stable though when a modest fifth at Chelmsford on debut and this will be a whole new ball game compared to the all-weather.
ITALIAN LOVER’S LOSS IS OUR GAIN
⭕ 2.20 Southwell After starting 100-1 at Salisbury, it was a surprise to see Italian Lover favourite at Lingfield in August.
Clearly, connections at Charles Hills’ stables expected more but the Caravaggio two-year-old made his own decisions about starting (slow away) as well as finishing the race! Gelding was an obvious outcome, hopefully a solution.
Dropped back in trip in a race of very little depth, on a track where Hills does particularly well, Kieran Shoemark will hope to contain Kodi Dancer, who makes the other sprinters honest but only once in six places out of 10 races has he put his head in front where it matters.
Rajwaan was third on his nursery debut in a bog at Haydock.Was he just one of the few who could handle the ground?
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.5 Italian Lover
TEDDY LOOKS THE BOY
⭕ 2.30 Redcar A winner on such a surface here is Give It Some Teddy, who has dropped 10lb since the start of his season in May and was favourite, beaten only half a length, back on the course in August out of gate 4.
In fact, Teddy has won five times at Redcar and should be sharp after his third at Newmarket on Saturday. Now out of stall 5.
Cold Stare, Deputy (bidding for a hat-trick), First Greyed and Flying Pursuit (both won in this grade two years ago), Kapono (penalised 11lb for winning here eight days ago) and Ugo Gregory have all won on heavy.
Ugo Gregory has won in October the last two years off 73 and 80 and has dropped a stone this season to 67.
BETDAQ value 7.2 Give It Some Teddy, 25.0 Ugo Gregory
BOBBY COULD BE MUCH BETTER CLASS
⭕ 2.40 Warwick Another whose targets suggest he is well regarded is Big Boy Bobby, placed in a couple of novice hurdles when switched from Roger Charlton on the Flat.
New trainer Alan King clearly liked what he saw and felt Bobby was worth tilting at top company in a Kempton Grade 2 and then an Ascot class 2.
Nothing to show for it, except a drop in his rating, despite looking sure to place in the Ascot race when he fell.
That means he gets into this class 4 off 111 against the three years older Opening Bid, an uneasy favourite this morning (5.3 the field).
BETDAQ value 15.0 Big Boy Bobby
BURKE AT THE DOUBLE
⭕ 6.15 Newcastle Karl Burke can strike again here with Printemps who has run well since joining the stable from France.
She finished a close second at Southwell in September and then last month won a class 3 handicap at Newmarket.
She’s gone up 2lb which doesn’t look harsh, especially when you mitigate she’s down TWO levels on the class ladder and is likely to improve further. We also know she handles the all-weather from her Southwell run.
THAT’S MY BOY
⭕ 7.45 Newcastle My Boy Jack is proving frustrating/expensive to follow but this will be his best chance ever and the first time is likely to be sent off clear favourite on the Betdaq Betting Exchange.
His Lingfield second last week makes him the clear form choice and it will hopefully be a case of seventh time lucky on the all-weather. A repetition of his course effort last month should also be good enough.
So it’s basically him just repeating what he’s been doing and I don’t think any extra improvement is needed to land this.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.50 Redcar (win 10)
BET 10.6pts win OVERRULE
2.20 Southwell (win 12)
BET 2pts win ITALIAN LOVER
2.30 Redcar (win 12, win 25)
BET 2pts win GIVE IT SOME TEDDY
BET 1pt win UGO GREGORY
2.40 Warwick (win 50 nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win BIG BOY BOBBY
6.15 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win PRINTEMPS
7.45 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 6.25pts win MY BOY JACK
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