GO TO THE TOP OF THE CLASS: That’s the secret of winning money, according to Daqman in his continuing series about ways to win at horse racing.
‘I TOLD YOU SO’ CONFESSION: Daqman first wrote in December about the Paul Nicholls’ stable’s loss of form. Now the trainer has made a statement.
DOUBLE BANKER TREBLES: Today Daqman picks two horses in the quality race of the day at Taunton and doubles them with two hot bankers at Wetherby in the hope of landing a treble.
ONLY AN IMPROVER CAN RISE IN GRADE
Be a snob and don’t back oiks. Racing is entirely about class. It’s very structure. The horses themselves. The trainers and jockeys. If you remember one word when you’re searching the form, that word is ‘class.’
The racing programme makes it easier for you: races are classified by Group or Grade/Listed/conditions races and class of handicap from 1 to 6; until, finally, the lowest of the low, like ‘sellers.’
‘Don’t bet below ‘C’ level’ (now class 3) were Paul Major’s famous words in his Horse Sense guide; they simply don’t have the constitution to repeat the form and make it viable for betting.
If you do bet among the equine oiks and scrubbers, choose a skilful trainer, who knows how to handle them and place them well.
When I was a boy, knee-high to Willie Shoemaker, I remember the words of wisdom from handicap trainers Cyril Mitchell and Jack Hardie.
Cyril, famous for handling Peter O’Sullevan’s sprinter, Be Friendly, told me: ‘If you see a horse with a row of duck-eggs (00000) to its name and it wins at a price, don’t think ‘what’s crafty Cyril been up to’; think ‘thank god, he’s paid for the corn this winter and will be training again next year.’
Jack, who landed a double at the Cheltenham Festival from his small Notts yard, summed it up: ‘It’s as hard to win a seller as it is to win the Derby. Each to his class; then it’s down to the trainer to get it right.’
Stick to what you know about a horse in its grade; if it’s down in class, it could, literally, ‘outclass’ the rest of the field. If it’s up in grade, it must be an improver to stand any chance of winning..
By their very name, only improvers can climb the classes and join, or get close to, the ranks of the elite.
Official ratings (the OR) and those of the Racing Post and private groups will tell you whether a horse is climbing the scale or on the slide.
But, before you rush to condemn, you must know the trainer’s form. If a horse ran badly at a time when the stable was in the doldrums, you cannot yet strike a pencil line through it; that horse deserves another chance when the yard strikes form.
Similarly, if a horse appears to be winning as he likes, check the opposition. If he ‘beat nothing well’, you have to remain suspicious of his true merit. But, if horses behind him come out and win, you can be pretty sure this ‘franked’ form is useful.
A good recent example of ‘potential’ versus ‘true form’ is Katie Too v. Jessbers Dream. Katie won 20 lengths and 24 lengths in December races but ‘beat nothing well’ and was still only ‘potentially good.’
Now ‘potential’ over proven form in the book is the way many punters bet and often get burned. Yet Katie Too ended up 13-8 favourite.
Allowed to start 9-2, Jessbers Dream, had form not as flashy as ‘Katie’, but with collateral connections to the magnificent Vroum Vroum Mag, World Hurdle favourite.
Result: a Dream winner for punters at 9-2, and bigger on BETDAQ.
In the higher handicaps, all the runners should be equal, according to that great leveller, the handicapper.
But draw bias, jockey ability, trainerform, trip and going will all make holes in his homework, and give the astute backer the chance to spot a ‘stand-out’. That’s a horse at a price that is unscathed by the negatives that are knocking the form of others.
When punters meet in a betting shop, you know they’re losers because they don’t ask the right questions. They say: Did you get yesterday’s big winner?’
You can hardly be expected to land a one-off, so they should be asking: Have you had enough big winners to show a profit betting in that category?
How to to calculate what to expect and how to bet for coups and sequences is another story. Tomorrow.
DITCHEAT: YOU READ IT HERE FIRST…
RACING POST: At long last trainer Paul Nicholls has admitted that he has “never been happy” with the form of his horses this season, in particular a ‘miserable’ December recording his lowest total of winners and prizemoney for 10 years while his January total of seven winners was below recent seasons as well.
QUOTE: ‘While Nicholls insisted at the time there was nothing to be concerned about, he said on Monday that it had been a frustrating time during the winter with horses failing to hold their form and suffering from minor ailments. They’ve been very in and out.’
DAQMAN (December 6): ‘Nicholls currently has that Timeform-type squiggle§ against his name: unreliable, uncertain, unsure how his horses will run. The usual beaming and bounce had wanned to a Mourhino pallor and shrug on the racetrack yesterday.’
THIS IS AN EASY DAY OUT FOR VACATION
4.10 Taunton Front-runner Tornado In Milan is a once-a-year-horse at Taunton, winning in January or February every season for four years.
He’s unlikely to hold his form of a month ago, just as Sea Wall would have to improve to win off a mark 12lb higher (ouch!) than his recent success on the course.
The Nicholls’ runner, Qualando, could bounce back, aimed as he is at the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s scarcely been in and out, as the trainer now confesses of most of his string: he was simply ‘out’ in the whole of 2015, and must qualify as a ‘hidden horse’ with the yard back to form at this level.
Lochnager, too, hasn’t posted a decent result since 2014, albeit massively better off with Sea Wall, so I’m choosing between Cobra De Mai and Royal Vacation.
Dan Skelton (Cobra De Mai) had three winners in three days last week and Colin Tizzard (Royal Vacation) five in five days.
Cobra De Mai won only a maiden for juveniles on the last day and is a quirky sort (needs earplugs), whereas Royal Vacation was thought capable of tackling Yanworth at Cheltenham. He wasn’t.
This is very much easier, quite the vacation, though short of his best trip, and he’ll need Tornado In Milan to make a strong pace: I took 5.0 on BETDAQ this morning and 6.2 Qualando.
2.45 and 5.00 Wetherby Both Goldray (2.45) for the in-form Kerry Lee, and Listen To The Man (5.00), highly regarded by Dan Skelton, rate low-level (10-point) bankers.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 5pts win ROYAL VACATION and 4pts win QUALANDO (4.10 Taunton)
BANKER: BET 10pts win GOLDRAY (2.45 Wetherby)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) LISTEN TO THE MAN (5.00 Wetherby)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 1pt win trebles the above four
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