BIG PRICES BUT BEST BETDAQ VALUE WAS A 5.5 OFFER THIS MORNING: Daqman finds some solid outsiders today at 14.0, 11.5 and 11.0 but rates 5.5 offers in the BETDAQ orange as biggest value of all about his opening shot as he picks from five races at Newcastle and Wetherby. Headlines:
🔹 THROWN IN! PARDON MY FRENCH
🔹 THE TOAST IS TO LITTLE RED LION
🔹 PROOF OF FANSHAWE’S ABILITY
🔹 DIOCLES ENTERS TAPETA ARENA
THROWN IN! PARDON MY FRENCH
⭕ 2.35 Wetherby I backed Elysian Flame to beat Bear Ghylls at Exeter on Sunday in a rare trip to the West Country by Yorkshire trainer Mick Easterby.
He was one paced which becomes more and more evident in his bridesmaid form figures of 3223. But I’ve got a job for him at home in Yorkshire today.
I want him to hold up the price for me (5.5 on BETDAQ this morning) about French Paradoxe, so that we can all get some value.
French Paradoxe won at Newbury in December, holding off the odds-on Flash Collonges, who redeemed himself – and boosted the form – by beating 133-rated Malinello more than eight lengths at Wincanton on Saturday.
The 122 mark allotted French Paradoxe now looks like a new-year gift from the handicapper, not to mention those 5.5 offers from friendly layers in the BETDAQ orange.
The form is not always (not often?) working out at these lower levels in bad ground but all you need is a value price to make a profit in the long run, and you got it here today!
THE TOAST IS TO LITTLE RED LION
⭕ 3.10 Wetherby Olly Murphy, in form with a double at Hereford yesterday, sends Seemingly So to heavy-weather Wetherby but that’s quite a test of jumping for one who is still learning the trade and is another on a bridesmaid sequence (322).
David Pipe’s Little Red Lion is more appealing, making the long journey from Somerset, after taking two chases on heavy ground, with Fergus Gillard needing one more to get off the 13-winner mark for the season.
He’s been to Wetherby once before for one ride, a winning one for Pipe on Main Fact in March.
Like Little Red Lion, Ecossais is also claimer-ridden on a hat-trick mission after winning twice at Southwell. BETDAQ 4.9.
Commit Or Quit was a Wetherby CD winner for Bryan Carver in a conditionals race, so he’s not penalised and this time Bryan can take off 3lb.
But the Charlie Mann stable seems badly out of form; his last three starters have all pulled up.
Harry Bannister, who rode Commit Or Quit when he fell at Worcester the last day, is back on Another Emotion, whom he rode into a place at Wincanton (2m 4f) in first-time blinkers.
PROOF OF FANSHAWE’S ABILITY
⭕ 3.25 Newcastle Kevin Philippart De Foy, who took over Ed Vaughan’s yard, enters his third month as a Newmarket trainer with two winners from his last three runners.
The former assistant to James Fanshawe, who was five years with Criquette Head at Chantilly, had his first success here at Newcastle late last month.
He could make it 2-2 on Tapeta with Minster, who should probably have more than a 72 rating after two runs at Kempton, but it gives him an easy in this class 5 with Tom Marquand booked.
⭕ 5.00 Newcastle David Loughnane landed three winners out of four last week, and Lomu is something of a hidden horse.
Named after the 63-times-capped New Zealand rugby star, Jonah Lomu, the seven-year-old is 421 since joining the stable, which is currently firing at a near-30% strike-rate.
That’s if you delete races beyond 6f. His only 5f start here at Newcastle at the end of last month was a winning one.
Venturous has won three of his last four starts – including over CD here – which has cost him a 17lb rise overall but he may still have the edge over Exalted Angel, who ran third to him at Wolverhampton.
Royal Birth, beaten a neck in today’s race a year ago off 4lb higher, is on a hat-trick after back-to-back strikes at Lingfield. He and Ornate are inseparable on the form of their one-two in one of those Lingfield finishes.
Bomb Proof won first time for his new yard when switched to James Fanshawe before not surprisingly failing to give weight to older horses at Ascot. Could still make his mark as a four-year-old.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 11.0 Bomb Proof and 11.5 Lomu are good value against the favourite.
DIOCLES ENTERS TAPETA ARENA
⭕ 4.00 Newcastle Ralph Beckett, with form figures of 1223 at the turn of the year, has a 31% strike rate at Newcastle, and Diocles Of Rome is his only runner of the day anywhere and his first since last Wednesday.
Diocles the Roman was a charioteer you might still hear about, if you are a quiz anorak. He is still reckoned the highest paid (equivalent) athlete of all time.
Diocles the horse is superbly named by Holy Roman Emperor out of an Exit To Nowhere mare. You didn’t often get out of a Roman arena alive!
The Beckett six-year-old was a Newcastle CD winner a grade higher in December but will actually carry 2lb less, thanks to Laura Pearson’s continued claim. He’s had a break so no reason to ‘bounce.’
This is a 7f race and three of Aljari’s four wins have been at 6f; all four of Shallow Hal’s have.
Conversely, Dawaaleeb had back-to-back wins over a mile here in lower grade in the autumn; he has form of 00 over 7f.
But be warned that Dawaleeb was a hold-up horse in his younger days yet those two mile wins came when forcing the pace, so he may have them playing catch-me.
He meets Spiorad (trainer out of form) on the same terms as when he beat that one into third here last month.
Diocles Of Rome is a fair punt at 3.7, with Gunmetal the outsider at BETDAQ 14.0. He’s 0-24 since August, 2018, but has slid 24lb down the handicap.
Just lacking the speed when finishing close up in the York Sprint and Great St Wilfrid and ran on, beaten half a length, here at Newcastle (7f) on the last day of last year. Maybe he’s been needing this trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.35 Wetherby (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win FRENCH PARADOXE
3.10 Wetherby (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win LITTLE RED LION
3.25 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 3pts win MINSTER
4.00 Newcastle (win 10, win 20)
BET 3.75pts win DIOCLES OF ROME
BET 1.5pts win GUNMETAL
5.00 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 1pt win BOMB PROOF
BET 1pt win LOMU
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