WHEN LOSERS ARE WINNERS: PART 7 OF DAQMAN’S BETTING SECRETS: The first six parts of Daqman’s Secrets Of Winner Finding have been published in 11 sections since March 24, all listed for you yesterday, so that you can check back on any one topic in the Daqman Archive. Today launches the subject of Lays – when losers are winners – and reveals the beginnings of his dual strike in one race, the Double Whammy. Look out for:
🔹 How to find lays/assessing the right race
🔹 How to find value/putting it all together
DAWN OF THE DOUBLE WHAMMY
From 2007 to 2011, I couldn’t stop picking losers. And every one of them counted as a winner, because I’d backed them to lose. In 2008, I landed 200 short-priced lays, including 16 in a row.
Between 2008 and 2011 I had 21 out of 23 over successive Cheltenham festivals, mostly favourites and including 17 in a row. Otherwise my best sequence was 45 out of 50 in 2016. It’s all there in the Daqman Library; check it out.
I think the novelty factor of the BETDAQ exchange had me concentrating on lays. To be able to back losers and win was incredible. Then I started thinking about it and, like a golfer who loses his nerve and three-putts everything, I got the yips for a while.
That’s simply because I don’t like tipping losers (if you get my meaning). Whether I’m trying to recommend winners or losers, I don’t like to let my audience down.
Winning with lays is harder than you’d think, because you need a very high strike rate to make it pay, and your target, with few exceptions, is the favourite.
It’s as tough as trying to land a sequence of supernaps on those very favourites: again a large percentage of them must win. So it was that I was pursuing favourites all the time.
I was spreading out the jigsaw into three piles: favourites to win (blue sky), favourites to lose (blue sea) with all the rest as don’t-knows (clouds of uncertainty in between, hoping for the sunshine of an outsider).
Then the penny dropped: I should stop trying to pick horses to win or lose but to pick races to win instead. That’s the whole point of BETDAQ betting, with its tiny trading overround.
The percentages are already on your side and you can assess and reassess your position from the early-mouse market right up to the winning-post, moving in for profit or insurance, playing the pieces that fit at the time, back or lay.
I decided that, since I couldn’t follow the action with you, I would advise which races to work in, and find two corner pieces in the jigsaw.
I oppose the favourite, or one at short odds near the front of the market, as a lay and, in the same race, back one at value offers. That’s how the Double Whammy was born.
All we had to do then was follow the BETDAQ market, and then the run of the race, and decide whether to intervene with an insurance bet. It would be an introduction – yours and mine – to trading to win a race.
Before the new season starts, we’ll look at bad favourites and value bets from my notebooks, and we’ll be ready to combine them in the Daqman Double Whammy where we have a solid chance of winning twice in the same race.
🔹 TOMORROW: I’ll look at races past and present where I found successful lays
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
