JUVENILE RATINGS THROW UP A DIVA: Daqman finds that Aidan O’Brien has the top two-year-olds of both sexes on the ratings but reckons the leading filly, Opera Singer, would give the colts a race. The final two-year-old tests should produce a champion.
TODAY: Daqman finds an ex-Irish trained runner that looks dangerously well handicapped. Another day for keeping the stakes low alongside the low quality of racing.
LEADING TWO-YEAR-OLDS OF 2023
DAQMAN rates Sunday’s Marcel Boussac winner, Opera Singer, within striking distance of the top colts of the 2023 generation, allowing for her sex allowance.
Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, already has the top colt, but closely pressed by the Middle Park winner, Vandeek.
The Dewhurst Stakes and the Doncaster Futurity could be hotly contested but, with such a strong crop of two-year-olds, some will be put away for the winter, instead of risking their reputation.
Watch this space.
119 HENRY LONGFELLOW (Aidan O’Brien) Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 14
118 VANDEEK (Simon and Ed Crisford) Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 14
117 CITY OF TROY (Aidan O’Brien) Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 14
112 ROSALLION (Richard Hannon) Doncaster Futurity, October 28
112 TASK FORCE (Ralph Beckett) No listed entries.
111 RIVER TIBER (Aidan O’Brien) Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 14
110 UNQUESTIONABLE (Aidan O’Brien) Doncaster Futurity, October 28
109 GHOSTWRITER (Clive Cox) No listed entries.
108 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (Aidan O’Brien) Doncaster Futurity, October 28
Fillies
116 OPERA SINGER (Aidan O’Brien) Fillies Mile, Newmarket, October 13
113 RAMATUELLE (Christopher Head) No listed entries
109 FALLEN ANGEL (Karl Burke) Fillies Mile, Newmarket, October 13
109 ISLANDINTHESTREAM (Joseph O’Brien) No listed entries
IT’S AUTUMN TIME
⭕ 3.22 Ayr Autumn Festival enjoyed the soft ground when making all to win at Beverley last week and the David O’Meara trained runner can make light of his 5lb penalty.
The cheekpieces were also on for the first time, as they are today, and he can see off the challenge of Master Zoffany who won well at Chester but is also up 5lb and is now racing off a career high mark.
Jim Goldie’s Rock Melody seems to do better over shorter distances and a bigger danger may come from William Dewhirst who remains lightly raced and won on his first attempt over this trip at Carlisle.
CHEERS EL TESORO
⭕ 7.30 Wolverhampton The handicapper looks to have been really kind to El Tesoro by dropping him 3lb after his UK debut at Southwell when sixth over the longer six furlongs.
He joined Joseph Parr’s stable from Ireland (Donnacha O’Brien) where he won a Dundalk handicap off 65 and then ran well off 74 when a close up third at Cork.
The return to the sprint distance and a mark of 67 gives him a fine chance of recapturing winning form in this grade. He was only found out in the final furlong at Wolverhampton after taking up the running two furlongs out and I can easily see catch me if you can tactics being deployed here.
Speed Dial Baileys is pretty consistent at this level and would rate my biggest danger (latest market at Betdaq Betting Exchange). The James Tate trained runner remains lightly raced and has run her best races here over course and distance but I’m never that keen on a horse going up in the weights for a recent defeat which is the case with her tonight.
LISTENING TO THE CHINESE WHISPERS
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton Chinese Whisperer is out again quickly after his course and distance win of last week. He only scrambled home by a nose and will find life harder here under the statutory 5lb penalty.
However, this is such a weak contest that he must have every chance of following up and connections have gone for this in preference to a similar event here on Saturday.
El Royale looks a sensible win and place alternative. The Mick Appleby trained runner seems to have rekindled some better form since the application of blinkers which might, by proxy, make him well handicapped here.
However the handicapper has almost built that improvement into his rating by shoving him up another 2lb and given he remains 0-16 so that’s not a great trajectory.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.22 Ayr (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win AUTUMN FESTIVAL
7.30 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win EL TESORO
8.30 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 5.5pts win CHINESE WHISPERER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
WHERE THE BIG WINNERS COME FROM: Four days and seven races of top two-year-old tests are not to be missed, while you spend your time on the Cambridgeshire and Arc de Triomphe form. There could be a legend waiting somewhere among them. Daqman provides the clues in advance.
BOOST FOR NEWMARKET NURSERY BET: One of Daqman’s tips yesterday, Chic Columbine (WON 100-30), gave a big boost to offers of 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning. It’s in the nursery on the opening day of Newmarket this afternoon.
A LEGEND WAITING SOMEWHERE
Two-year-old racing preview
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket today (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Five out of the last seven winners have been drawn in stall 2. Charlie Appleby and William Buick, who have combined for two of them, now run Legend Of Time.
Their 2021 winner Modern Games went on to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and – the following season – the French 2,000 Guineas.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket tomorrow (Rockfel Stakes, 2yo, 7f) STATS Three of the last five winners were drawn 1 or 2. Team Gosden, winners of two of the last six, have Spiritual as a probable tomorrow.
Their 2022 winner Commissioning went on to take the Fillies Mile but did not run as a three-year-old.
And be warned that the race had been an absolute dead-end before that. The nine winners from 2013 To 2021 never scored again, losing a total of 39 times.
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Saturday (Royal Lodge Stakes 2yo 1m) STATS: Aidan O’Brien 2, Team Gosden 2. Eight winners out of 10 were out of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. O’Brien has six left in at this stage.
The Foxes (2022) went on to win the Dante as a 3yo but the race hero was Roaring Lion (2017), who also won the Dante, and made four consecutive Group 1 strikes.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket, Saturday (Cheveley Park Stakes 2yo 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has landed four winners in the last seven seasons, but the best of a weaker bunch in the decade, compared with its old popularity, was Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free (2020), subsequently winner of the Fred Darling, Coronation Stakes, Sussex Stakes and July Cup.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket, Saturday (Middle Park Stakes 2yo, 6f) STATS Aidan O’Brien has won it three times in seven years but could have done without the first of them, US Navy Flag (2017),who was headlined for a plethora of races, including the Guineas, even the Derby at one stage after adding the Dewhrst to his bag!
But the War Front colt would lose eight times after, including six Group 1 and, brought back to sprinting, win only the 2018 July Cup.
⭕ 1.15 Longchamp, Sunday (Jean-Luc Lagardere 2yo colts 1m) STATS Eight out of 9 at Longchamp won from stalls 1, 2, 3, 4. Andre Fabre 3-8, winning the French 2,000 Guineas the following year with Victor Ludorum (2019).
Sealiway (2020) won the Champion Stakes and Angel Bleu (2021) the Celebration Mile but winners were not plentiful.
⭕ 1.50 Longchamp, Sunday (Marcel Bousac, 1m 2yo fillies) The only Group 1 in France for two-year-old fillies; best of all the trials this weekend, having produced Allez France (1972), Triptych (1984), Midway Lady (1985), Miesque (1986), Salsabil (1989), Finsceal Beo (2006), Zarkava (2007) Found (2014) and Blue Rose Cen (2022).
STATS: Aidan O’Brien (2), Charlie Appleby (2) in the decade; the favourites all blown out since Aidan O’Brien’s short-priced double with Ballydoyle and Found in 2014-15.
IMPROVING BUDGIE TO FLY HOME
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket today (1m nursery) Stormy Waves has just 4lb with which to turn around an easy defeat by Blown Away at Chelmsford so it doesn’t look likely.
Blown Away enjoyed the step up to a mile but the value today is Granny Budgie, who has improved with every race and is expected to stay.
She gave away 3lb at Doncaster when third to Chic Columbine, Daqman’s tip when scoring decisively yesterday.
Lambert had won three out of four at a low level when he tried class 2; he didn’t like it that the surface had turned soft and much will depend today on whether the forecast showers get into the ground.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.5 Blown Away, 8.6 Granny Budgie
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (6f fillies handicap) Gale Force Maya won this in 2021, and landed five prizes, two of them for Listed races, last year but she hasn’t maintained that level of form this term, including when favourite at Pontefract in one of five losing starts.
‘Maya’ tries blinkers first time today, while Kinta – second in a Group 2 last year – adds a hood after wind surgery, highest rated of the three-year-olds.
Executive Decision has been on the premises at today’s level but had to resort to lower grades to get back to winning form on soft ground in August.
I prefer the Frankel filly Frankness who ran well in an Ascot handicap but showed the benefit of a rest when really getting hold of a race at Salisbury the last day and could go on from there. Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.0 taken.
THUNDERBOLT ON A NICE MARK
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Somerville Tattersall Stakes, 2yo, 7f) See above.
It’s not beyond belief that the outsider Victory Shout can give stall 2 a sixth victory in eight seasons at a huge 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
By Frankel out of a Shamardal mare, he could yet ‘be anything’ after storming clear by nine lengths the last day over a previous five-lengths winner.
Otherwise it’s Gosden v O’Brien v Appleby, the usual triple-header at Group level. Eben Shaddad, Military and Legend Of Time all won green; the market may help you, if you want to choose between them.
⭕ 5.18 Newmarket (1m handicap) Three-year-olds dominate (five out of seven) and a low stall seems essential (gates 1, 2, 3, 4 have together bagged seven of the last nine winners).
Ranger Thunderbolt (out of 4) is an improver who tried and failed over a longer trip; he’s back to his winning distance here off a nice mark in the handicap. BETDAQ 8.0 taken this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win and place GRANNY BUDGIE
BET 4pts to win 10 BLOWN AWAY
3.00 Newmarket (win 15 nap)
BET 5pts win FRANKNESS
3.35 Newmarket (win 40 total)
BET 1pt win and place VICTORY SHOUT
5.18 Newmarket (win 20 total)
BET 2.2pts win and place RANGER THUNDERBOLT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
