IT’S ANOTHER NAP OF HONOUR! Daqman napped the winner but BETDAQ took the honours again yesterday, with odds-against morning offers about a scintillating best bet, giving him a fifth Easter present. His nap currently has a 38% strike rate.
WON 4-6 DUBAI HONOUR (Monday) napped at 2.36 on BETDAQ
WON 4-1 OUR CHAMP (Sunday)
WON 7-4 JADE DE GRUGY (Sunday)
WON 6-1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (Saturday)
WON 7-2 INSPIRITUS (Friday)
TODAY AND EVERY DAY: Countdown to the Aintree Grand National: Daqman’s pick for Paul Townend.
INCREDIBLE 20-1 AINTREE BET
HE IS MAXIMUS! Willie Mullins has won £1m this season in England alone with just the Gold Cup (Galopin des Champs) and Champion Hurdle (State Man) winners.
And the Aintree Grand National could win him another half-a-million in less than 10 minutes on Saturday week. But which one of his eight already ‘safe’ among the 34 above the cut-off point for runners?
One way for punters to get some ‘overs’ in the ante-post markets would be to anticipate the Paul Townend pick. The one of four Willie Mullins’ runners announced as his mount will surely close down Corach Rambler for favourite.
🏇 I AM MAXIMUS is in pole position for Closutton. Townend won the Irish Grand National of 2023 on that one but Jody McGarvey was in the plate when the eight-year-old came back to form in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse in February, beating last year’s Grand National runner-up, Vanillier.
I Am Maximus made mistakes at Fairyhouse in the Irish National and was not fluent in the Bobbyjo. Slick jumping not only means the ability to get round at Aintree, but not to use up too much energy in the effort of jumping. Rhythm is essential.
🏇 MEETINGOFTHEWATERS also failed to jump with fluency or might have been closer when third in the Ultima at Cheltenham last month. But his staying-on finish put him among the first five in the Aintree market.
He had established some class when ridden clear in the big Listed chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, enjoying the left-handed track.
🏇 CAPODANNO Very close behind subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, Gerri Colombe, when they were second and third to Galopin Des Champs in another big one at Leopardstown at Christmas time, the Savills.
Raceform reported: ‘Capodanno didn’t always jump with fluency’ and said of the fourth horse: ‘Raced lazily; not always jump with fluency.’ That fourth horse was I Am Maximus!
🏇 MR INCREDIBLE I worry about the jumping of those three – Capodanno, I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters – all owned by J P McManus.
And the one I want to be on, a 20-1 shot at this stage, is Mr Incredible, with better on BETDAQ expected.
He was unlucky in the National last year under Brian Hayes when, only 14-1 SP, his saddle slipped at the second Canal Turn.
He had established his stamina when a staying-on third in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham the previous month, after runner-up in the Warwick Classic.
He’s been a Patrick Mullins project from quirky to responding to a mixed-gallops regime at home but Hayes was back in the saddle when he failed by less than two lengths to win the Midlands Grand National (4m 2f, heavy), giving 10lb to the winner, with the Haydock Grand National Trial second, My Silver Lining, in third
LOOK GOOBS BACK
⭕ 2.45 Pontefract I always like this distance of race at Pontefract. The 2m 2f is on the extreme side – and even more stamina sapping today given it’s heavy.
It’s basically a bumper and ideally we are looking for a horse proven on ground and distance on either code.
It might be worth siding with Goobinator who generally goes well after a break – he defied a 528 day absence to win at Catterick last year and ran well too when last seen at Haydock.
I’m struggling with Maxident. He looked the next Pegasus when winning by an eased down 50 lengths on his debut (worth repeating FIFTY lengths) when outsider of the three at 12/1 but has struggled for form since when tried at a much higher level than this – including a tailed off performance in the Champions Day Long Distance Cup.
The handicapper has dropped him again, so he is potentially well in and he hails from the Lincoln winning stable of Dominic Ffrench Davis. I’ll include him as a stakes saver bet on Betdaq and hopefully rely on Goobinator for a small profit.
WAIT FOR KATE
⭕ 4.00 Ludlow The field sizes at Ludlow today: 2,6,7,4,7,6 and they wonder why people are not attracted to midweek jumps action? The ground can’t be blamed as it’s soft not fast.
There is one bet for me on the depleted card – in the ‘huge’ runner handicap hurdle at 4.00 where Passing Kate looks value against her two better fancied (on the early Betdaq Betting Exchange market) rivals Balhambar and Royal Deeside who have had their limitations exposed.
Passing Kate does at least have a couple of wins on her CV, the latest coming two starts ago at Wincanton over this trip and ground.
She then struggled with the step up run grade at Hereford and was a fairly soundly beaten third. Back to class 5 level she can resume winning ways.
Balhambar was a 10 furlong winner on the flat (good ground) who has to lug top weight of 12 stone around here on his handicap debut. He was a reasonable third (albeit well held) at Huntingdon on his first start for Harry Derham.
Royal Deeside was a course and distance second (beaten 19 lengths) on his handicap debut but tired notably in the closing stages and on the same ground couldn’t really be relied upon to improve – especially given the handicapper has kept him on 98.
TAMARIS AGAIN
⭕ 7.30 Wolverhampton Tamaris holds Baileys Warrior on January Kempton form and should confirm that on BETTER terms today!
This is also his first start for trainer James Owen who is in cracking form.
The danger may come from the John Berry trained Turbat Ness who usually runs well despite only being 1-18 – the blinkers are on for the first time tonight.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Pontefract (win 10 from first bet, stakes saver from second for level on race)
BET 4.0pts win GOOBINATOR
BET 2.0pts win MAXIDENT
4.00 Ludlow (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win PASSING KATE
7.30 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 5.8pts win TAMARIS
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