WAIT FOR BETDAQ VALUE AT CHELTENHAM: The top two home stables shared the Dublin Festival winners 5-5, just as they do the majority of winners in Ireland. The Gold Cup was a 1-2-3 for the same yard. That stable doesn’t have to pick its winner at Cheltenham; but you do! That’s Daqman’s warning as punters risk their money ante-post. ‘Wait for BETDAQ value on the day!’
MUCH MORE OPEN IN ENGLAND
I’m glad to be home. Championship Irish racing at the Dublin Festival was evermore Willie Mullins versus Gordon Elliott, with Elliott narrowly in front this season as they share 270-odd winners.
In the top 25 leading trainers, only Mullins with 24% has a strike rate of more than 17%. Compare with the open contest between a dozen top stables in England:
ELEVEN trainers in the top 24 have between 20 and 27% wins to runners and the total becomes 12 out of 24 if you include Sam Thomas’s amazing tally of 20-57, which is 35%.
SIX stables have earned between around one million in prizemoney and the £3million of leading handler Dan Skelton.
EIGHT jockeys from the English top 14 are able to ride 20%-plus winners from around 150 rides for different yards; in Ireland, just two.
🇮🇪 Dublin Irish Festival winners: Willie Mullins 5 (Kaid d’Athie, Majborough, Narciso Has, Doctor Steinberg, Fact To File), Gordon Elliott 5 (Brighterdaysahead, Bowensonfire, Romeo Coolio, Jacob’s Ladder, Broadway Ted).
Doctor Steinberg for Mullins had had a Christmas holiday (since Dec 6) when he beat Kazansky for Elliott, with that one having had an outing on Boxing Day, so the Doctor’s form looks good for Cheltenham.
But hold your horses: Mullins has 11 left in the Albert Bartlett and he has 20 left in the Doctor’s alternative race, the Turners.
Romeo Coolio (Elliott) only just scrambled home over Kargese (Mullins) when stamina came into play on the run-in for the Irish Arkle.
And the Irish Gold Cup? 1st W. Mullins, 2nd W. Mullins, 3rd W Mullins (in that order). You, lucky punter, had to guess the winner’s name and you will be asked to do so again at Cheltenham. The stable doesn’t have to.
PREMIER LEAGUE RELEGATION
⭕ 3.15 Taunton Testing heavy ground at Taunton on Tuesday (and elsewhere) and that might count against Betdaq Betting Exchange market leader Premier.
He’s been really consistent so far (won over course and distance in December) but has yet to face ground anything like as testing as this and Daqman prefers to see some form in the book – especially when playing at short odds.
The same comments apply to the Paul Nicholls trained Courageous Strike who ran well on good ground when last seen at Kempton last month.
Again, he has yet to face ground like this, although you’d be forgiven for backing him blind given the trainer’s current strike of 7 winners from his last 19 runners.
The percentage call for me has to be the Jeremy Scott trained Phoenix Risen who is showing better form now switched to softer ground and the fitting of blinkers for his last two starts.
He put in a good shift when second on soft ground at Wincanton last time out and is taken to go one better here – despite the 2lb hike in the weights looking a little mean.
DYLAN BACK FOR MORE
⭕ 4.45 Taunton Again, stamina and experience of heavy ground being the primary pre-requisites for this closing 2m 3f handicap hurdle.
Dish Of The Day is prominent in the market and has bits and pieces of form but is passed over on his first start for 330 days.
At better odds the Kayley Woollacott trained Our Dylan looks of interest. He was a good ground winner at Wincanton in November but proved he could handle soft ground too when third in a class better race at Ffos Las last month.
He was second in this race last year and despite his advancing years is taken to go one better.
HE’S THE GUVNOR
⭕ 5.30 Wolverhampton There are a few multiple winners bidding to extend their respective sequences tonight including How’s The Guvnor who is bidding for a hat-trick.
Ultimately he had plenty in hand when winning over course and distance last week but didn’t get the best of starts having been upset in the stalls.
This is a concern as he also showed temperament at Newcastle in November but was fine in his two starts since then. He still looks ahead of the handicapper in his current mood and should account for Harbour Vision who popped up at 20/1 over course and distance last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.15 Taunton (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win PHOENIX RISEN
4.45 Taunton (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win OUR DYLAN
★ 5.30 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 6.6pts win HOW’S THE GUVNOR
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