FLAT FACTS AND FINALS DAY: Today is the first of a three-day Daqman investigation. He digs out the hidden stats and facts as the Flat AW championships have finals day at Newcastle on Friday with the Vase meeting at Lingfield; then Musselburgh on Saturday hosts the Queens Cup and Scottish Sprint on turf.
NATIONALS NEXT WEEK: Then it’s National week with two in six days, the Irish version on Easter Monday and the Liverpool Grand National on the Saturday.
TUESDAY TRIO: Daqman looks at three races on Tuesday and finds two big priced selections that catch his eye in the 4.20 at Bangor.
13 O’BRIEN GUINEAS FLOPS
EINSTEIN did us all a favour. I’m talking about Albert Einstein, the racehorse, though Albert’s scientific theories have also lost a lot of gravitas lately.
We needed a reminder that the old days of ‘Ballydoyle colt wins juvenile trial, romps home in Guineas’, have been confined to history by Albert Einstein’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien. He hasn’t won the Newmarket Classic since 2019.
Here are the bare hoofbeats of the 13 O’Brien 2,000 Guineas flops, three of them favourite, in the last six seasons.
2020 four losers Wichita 2nd 15-2
2021 three losers Battleground 9-2 fav 13th of 14
2022 two losers Luxembourg 3rd 9-2
2023 two losers Auguste Rodin 13-8 fav 12th of 14
2024 one loser City Of Troy 6-4 on fav.
2025 one loser Expanded 5-1 9th of 11
Also confined to history is the O’Brien ploy of doubling up or bouncing back to win the Irish 2,000 Guineas, which he landed five times out of seven between 2011 and 2017.
Only Paddington has scored a home win at the Curragh for the Ballydoyle squad in the last eight years.
TWO SUBTLE SELECTIONS
⭕ 4.20 Bangor Three Zambezi’s looks a little vulnerable to me at the top of the Betdaq Betting Exchange market.
The Christian Williams trained chaser failed to sparkle over hurdles and was beaten 40 lengths when sent off a 5/4 fav but only last of three finishers at Lingfield.
There was a modicum of promise on his chasing debut at Hereford last month when he finished a 19 length fourth and that might have been a better run but for him losing a shoe during the race.
However, his overall profile makes me want to look elsewhere in the search of some Betdaq value and there are two that catch the eye at around double figure odds and I’ll back both for a WIN 20 return on the race.
The mare Subtle Fortune has ability wining two of her last five races – although looked a fortuitous winner at Hereford when left in the lead at the last. Nonetheless she clearly is clearly in good heart and has winning form to boot which is scarce in this race.
Felton Bellevue looks a little overpriced. He has been running consistently well in similar events and remains on a competitive mark 4lb up from his Plumpton win three starts ago.
Streamsforth Lad was in the process of running a big race in a better race at Stratford last tine out and would have a chance if staying on his feet but it’s a big if given his last three form ‘figures’ now read UUF.
FAST LANE FOR FARASI
⭕ 6.30 Wolverhampton This race is dominated by three horses who are back after very short breaks and the best of them could be last week’s course winner Farasi Lane.
He was well backed ahead of winning over a slightly longer trip and should be able to follow up under his statutory 4lb penalty. Whilst improvement is unlikely on his 28th all-weather start he does take a drop in grade which should be enough for him to follow up.
Habrdi won here in a lower grade two starts ago and ran a solid enough race off today’s mark at Southwell last time out but his trainer Ruth Carr is currently 0-26 which is a concern.
Giorgio M is running well enough and is a class dropper but it will be tough from draw 12 – the widest berth of all.
STAR TURN
⭕ 7.00 Wolverhampton Billy Loughnane will no doubt want to bag as many winners as he can before his 21 day ban starts on April 9 – although he has appealed this decision.
On the track he can strike here with Danehill Star who has held his form together well since a victory at Lingfield last month. His main rivals here are largely out of form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
4.20 Bangor (both win 20)
BET 2.4pts win SUBTLE FORTUNE
BET 1.4pts win FELTON BELLEVUE
★ 6.30 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 9.1pts win FARASI LANE
7.00 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 6.2pts win DANEHILL STAR
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