DAQMAN LANDS 5-2 NAP FOR ANOTHER DAY IN PROFIT: The reality of betting is that you can only hope for a winner a day at best but Daqman applies staking plans to try to maintain a steady profit. After a 10.0 strike at the weekend, he was all smiles as he landed his nap yesterday.
SUNDAY: Profit on the day: 9.70 points
WON 7-1 REGAL REALITY (win 50 at BETDAQ 10.0)
MONDAY: Profit on the day: 13.25 points
WON 5-2 MYSTERY SMILES (nap)
KEEP YOUR OWN RECORDS AND STICK TO STAKING PLANS: New readers start here! What are these ‘points’ in the Daqman bets? What are the staking plans? Daqman analyses form and facts but what is the reality of betting? One answer is good housekeeping by punters themselves; keep your accounts and modify your stakes; don’t spend all your money on one horse. See MAKE A POINT OF GETTING VALUE
MAKE A POINT OF GETTING VALUE
Are you at odds with yourself as a punter? You complain about short prices, but at the same time curse the long-odds bets you have because they rarely win?
There are three hard lessons in punting: the first is that you are not looking for the winner, you are looking for the value. Value alone wins in the long run.
The second is that value may be found at a short price, just as much as at long odds. Equally, therefore, bad value may be found at a big price just as much as at odds-on.
Thirdly, you have to look at your bets as a sequence, not as one-offs, and keep a record of them if you are to win money or, essentially, not lose.
Daqman searches for value at weekend big meetings but in the week his recommended bets take in those three considerations by staking plans.
In theory, a series of even-money bets to one-point each (called level stakes) would win 50 and lose 50 in a sequence of 100 (break even).
More about that tomorrow. Firstly, what are points and how do you try to create a profit, instead of break even or, worse still, losing your cash?
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Daily Bets How much do you want to win? Bet to win that amount and that’s it; that’s your staking plan!
Ordinarily, on a weekday, Daqman bets are each staked to win 10 points. So, BETDAQ offer 5.0, stake 2.5pts to win 10.
Profit on the day His target is to make a profit on the day but his three picks are likely to be different prices and, betting sensibly, he assumes only one might win, and enters that into his calculations.
Example: BETDAQ offers taken for race A 3.0, B 6.0 and C 11.0. The individual stakes would have to be A 5 to win 10, B 2 to win 10 and C 1 to win 10.
Returns: if A alone wins, he makes 7 points on the day (10 minus 2 minus 1); if B only, 4 points; just C, 3 points.
Nap That’s simply the best of a tipster’s picks, the bet of the day. You can increase your stakes on that one, if you like.
But, most important, keep a separate log to see how they do over a period as a sequence. Then you can vary the stakes according to their success.
Supernaps Daqman considers that these are strong naps and deserve up to a maximum of 20-point stakes.
But, again, it depends what you mean by ‘points’, whether pounds or euros – or pennies – and what level of investment; most importantly, what percentage of your bank.
IF you start with 40, you won’t want to blow half of it straight away with a 20 bet.
IF, from daily profits, you have built up your bank, you might want to set some of it aside and bet on supernaps as a separate sequence. That also applies to Fortune Cookies.
Fortune Cookies These are quality horses to follow, backed to a level stake whenever they race. Very important, therefore, to keep accounts.
Value challenge Daqman v Pricewise has been a big success for Daqman over 13 unbeaten seasons, betting only in quality races at value prices, largely staked to win 50 points.
* More about value tomorrow.
THUMUR STANDS OUT
⭕ 3.40 Wolverhampton This class 4 handicap is as good as the action gets at Wolverhampton this afternoon but it throws up a horse that is potentially much better than this level.
The Owen Burrows trained Thumur looks on a decent starting handicap mark but it is the step up in distance that could prove to be the biggest positive.
He has run well in three starts at Kempton, Doncaster and York but has been doing his best work in the closing stages (particularly at Doncaster) suggesting the step up to a mile and a half will be perfect.
The fact that there are also runners from Roger Varian, Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden and Marcus Tregoning only goes to prove how competitive a midweek class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton can be.
But the presence of their runners also help make the market for the selection.
Biggest danger may come from Sir Michael Stoute’s Vindicate – particularly if this one improves for the first time visor. He hasn’t shown too much sparkle in two starts this season so needs to be revitalised.
JOE NOW KNOWS THE WAY
⭕ 5.50 Wolverhampton Joe’s Way is out again quickly and can continue the good work for trainer Tim Easterby. A 6lb penalty shouldn’t halt the progress of the three-year-old who scored in heavy ground at Ayr last week.
The switch back to the all-weather looks a shrewd move was he clearly looks ahead of the handicapper and this doesn’t look the strongest of contests.
Grace Plunkett was a course and distance winner when last seen out but that came in a classified contest and this is much harder.
Light Lily has bits and pieces of form but her best form has come on the Fibresand at Southwell.
DYNASTY AT BIG ODDS
⭕ 6.55 Lingfield Edraak looks interesting back on the all-weather for the Michael Appleby yard but the stable have gone right off the boil with just 1 winner from the last 44.
Tintoretto also hails from a stable not in great form.
At better odds, the consistent Royal Dynasty looks fair enough value for a horse that ran really well at Newmarket last time out and has a good course record.
10.0 on the BETDAQ win market looks far too generous and I shall go for a win 10 return on both the win and place markets.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points):
BET 8.1pts win (nap) THUMUR (3.40 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.7pts win JOE’S WAY (5.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 1pt win and 3.5pts place ROYAL DYNASTY (6.55 Lingfield)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
