FOUR IN A ROW: LAYS PROFIT BACK TO 90 POINTS: Daqman yesterday landed his fourth lay in a row with Bramshill Lass (2nd 3-1) following Dawn Approach (last at 5-4 in the Derby) to restore his 2013 lays profit to 90 points.
THAT MAKES 17 OUT OF 21 THIS YEAR: His strike rate is 80% from 17 successful out of 21 in 2013 but profits dipped in April when he failed to cap the lay limit for a favourite that drifted to 6-1 and won. Sole lays banker was Shirocco Star (unplaced 5-2).
3.00 Ripon Five out of six winners have carried 9st or higher, as if established quality wins the day in this.
That could be represented by Noble Bull, who is dropped in class and travels up from Lambourn. But his good Sandown run (second) was down to first-time blinkers and (almost) being allowed to get away up front.
Will the blinds work the same way again? We don’t know. Will he be able to dominate? Unlikely, with Order Of Service, Special Meaning and Zaitsev all front runners. A strong pace possible, and some or all of those will wilt.
Polar Chief is top weight but earned his rating from success on soft-heavy ground, and he was not the same horse fresh on his reappearance at Yarmouth.
All in all, the shape of the race, suggests that one of the handicap newcomers Cavalieri and Tuscan Fun, might take advantage, both stepping up in trip, both hold-up horses, both on solo missions from the south.
3.30 Ripon Three horses here could ironically be described as exposed – they’ve run a total of 256 times! – and opposing these old boys could well give you an edge.
It’s race number 99 for Dubai Dynamo, who won this in 2011. He’s a bit past it now and has already run nine times this year, and had his once-a-year win.
The ground may be too firm for Osteopathic Remedy, who is having start number 77 and Suits Me, on outing 83, hasn’t scored for two years but has only just dropped back to that winning level of rating.
A second, and overlapping edge, is that Dubai Dynamo and Swiftly Done (prefers some cut) are with stables badly out of form right now. Both feature on the Racing Post ‘cold trainers’ list.
Ardmay, who beat Frontier Fighter, Dubai Dynamo and Osteopathic Remedy in to third, fourth and fifth, over CD on softish ground last time out, now has to contend with a firm surface.
Frontier Fighter has never been out of the frame in 10 starts and, though he has not tried ground firmer than ‘good,’ can’t go unbacked with all the ‘ifs and buts’ about the others.
I also fancy the rank outsider of the entire field at 21.0 as I write. St Moritz has the following figures on going with ‘firm’ in the return: 3232122200. And his results at Ripon are: 121.
Forget his last two runs, which include the final ‘0’ in that going list: that was a Listed race and he’s down three grades here. Before that he lost his action when hampered.
5.55 Yarmouth In three fields this size for this race in the last decade, stalls 8, 9 and 13 won, and seven of the nine places were occupied by stall 9 and higher.
Those that have been handicapping are no great shakes so, again, we’ll try two first-timers, the well-related Blessing Box (stall 8) and Frankie Dettori’s mount, Green Monkey (in 13).
8.25 and 8.55 Yarmouth Baihas (8.25) and Smalib Monterg (8.55) were that much better than even money on BETDAQ this morning. Baihas will enjoy the step up in trip.
Smalib Monterg is yet another today with a good chance of a winning handicap debut. The stable rarely travels here. When it does, it wins. It’s that simple (I wish).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.4pts win TUSCAN FUN, 2.4pts win CAVALIERI (3.00 Ripon)
BET 5.4pts win FRONTIER FIGHTER, and 1pt win and place ST MORITZ (3.30 Ripon)
BET 5.5pts win BLESSING BOX and 4pts win GREEN MONKEY (5.55 Yarmouth)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double BAIHAS (nap, 8.25 Yarmouth) and SMALIB MONTERG (8.55 Yarmouth) plus 2 x 1pt win trebles the same two with Frontier Fighter and St Moritz (3.30 Ripon)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: Singles are each to win 20 points. Multiples are staked as stated.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
