GOOD WORK, DAQMAN! HE TAKES 7-5 LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman went further ahead of Pricewise (7-5 now) after landing the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown yesterday with Delta Work (WON 13-8). He also had two returns at Yarmouth with Babbo’s Boy (WON 15-8) and with a bull’s-eye bet, win and place, on Illetyougonow (3rd 10-1).
14.0 AND 52.0 LONG SHOTS ON BIG DAY FOR FLAT AND JUMPS: There’s a double treat for racing fans of all persuasions today, with the Punchestown Gold Cup card in Ireland and a trials meeting for Royal Ascot on the luxury Berkshire track. Daqman naps at each venue, and faces Pricewise again in the 3.25 and 3.55 Ascot and the 7.10 Punchestown. He finds value outsiders at 14.0 and 52.0 on BETDAQ. Headlines:
🔹 BLUE IS BIG THREAT TO WEEKENDER
🔹 THE NONSENSE BEFORE THE GUINEAS
🔹 ZAAKI STOUTE BETDAQ ODDS OF 14.0
🔹 TAKE KEMBOY TO WIN PHOTO FINISH
🔹 JETT COULD FLY PAST MULLINS PAIR
BLUE IS BIG THREAT TO WEEKENDER
3.25 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes Gold Cup Trial) Today’s Royal Ascot preps are now defined in the raceheads as official trials. In this case, the last 10 winners of the Sagaro finished 2-011-2003 in the Gold Cup at the royal meeting.
I marked down Weekender for this in my Early Birds, and he may win it, though his form remains static – 114 rating – for the sixth consecutive race today – and it’s surprising that, at age five, he’s tried 2m only once before (third in a Group 3) at Sandown at this time last year.
He hasn’t won on turf for nearly two years but I fancied the Sagaro race wouldn’t take much winning this year. Let’s see.
Dee Ex Bee hasn’t lived up to his Derby second (and we never saw the winner again). His only try over further was when nine-lengths fourth in the Doncaster St Leger.
Danehill Kodiac was placed twice at Group-3 level at this time last year. Like Dee Ex Bee, it’ a question of whether he stays. Like Dee Ex Bee, he needs cut in the ground.
Italian Group-2 winner Raymond Tusk stayed on well, sixth in the English Leger, and is closely related to stayers, though marathon runners are not the forte of Team Hannon.
Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, Verdana Blue, is officially 19lb behind Weekender, but that’s a notional rating based on AW runs which were prep races in her hurdles career.
I’ll back her at 4.7 on BETDAQ as a saver to the 20-point Early Birds level-stake bet on Weekender. That will require 5.5 points.
THE NONSENSE BEFORE THE GUINEAS
3.55 Ascot (Commonwealth Cup Trial) Winners of this have managed three places, no winners, in trying to follow up at Royal Ascot.
The top Gosden three-year-olds have been a pain to punters so far this Spring, with his supposed big players dropping out of the 2,000 Guineas deal.
Another Early Bird, Calyx was out, in, out. Now it seems that Calyx won’t be ready for the big mile races until later on in the seasons
In that case, I can’t take odds-on for his reappearance. Like the Guineas, this sprint on fast ground could be too darn hot.
The only threat on form to the Coventry winner is Signora Cabello, who did the double of Queen Mary and Robert Papin last summer among four wins in a row.
The Coventry form has been well advertised by the placed horses, Advertise (won the Phoenix) and Sergei Prokofiev (Cornwallis) and, collaterally, a colt called True Mason, who was a length off the Signora in the Robert Papin, was nearly eight lengths behind Sergei Prokofiev in the Cornwallis, when Well Done Fox was runner-up.
My man in the long grass tells me that No Nonsense is very fast and will love the firmish ground, compared with the 7f and soft going he couldn’t contend with in the Greenham.
A work in progress, says wily trainer David Elsworth, of the 52.0 BETDAQ early-mouse offer (10.5 place), who has Gerald Mosse booked for a speculative bet. The dropping of Calyx from Group 1 to Group 3, and back in trip, is a warning to wait and see.
ZAAKI STOUTE BETDAQ ODDS OF 14.0
4.25 Ascot (Paradise Stakes Queen Anne Trial) Winners of this have a poor record in the Queen Anne (-0-0-0-004), and the successful Sir Michael Stoute four-year-old of 10 years ago won only a handicap at the royal meeting.
Stoute trains a similar sort today, Zaaki, already placed in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot. Zaaki (now gelded) drops back to a mile, which was the distance of his winning seasonal debut last year at around this time, and the 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning was double the odds of his real chance here.
Like Calyx, we can’t trust Barney Roy to be as good as his Guineas second and St James’s Palace Stakes win of almost two years ago. He’s been a failure at stud. That’s why he’s here, head hanging (or something like that).
Frankel’s son Wadilsafa was Listed level at best last year. He will like the track and the ground. Canvassed flew home in a class-5 novice at Kempton (well, he would, wouldn’t he) and ‘could be anything.’
TAKE KEMBOY TO WIN PHOTO FINISH
6.05 Punchestown (Coral Punchestown Gold Cup) Wait till they meet next year, said the pundits after Al Boum Photo’s Cheltenham Gold Cup and Kemboy’s Aintree Bowl. Their wish has come early.
Kemboy ‘missed out’ the very first fence at Cheltenham, when crowded for room, so a rematch with the winner could not come too soon.
Kemboy had gathered momentum – 27lb improvement – in four straight wins on all sorts of ground, including a novice chase at this meeting last year.
Al Boum Photo’s progress had its ups and downs over a longer period but his 25lb rise from half a dozen races inside a year might have been more rapid had he not run out at the final fence at this meeting in the Punchestown Champion Novice.
There’s one certain winner, however the match between Al Boum Photo or Kemboy turns out, and that’s trainer Willie Mullins, who handles both!
He won the race last year with Bellshill (3-3 at Punchestown) and, as we saw yet again yesterday with Un De Sceaux, that counts for plenty. A Willie 1-2-3 is clearly on the cards.
JETT CAN JUMP PAST MULLINS PAIR
7.10 Punchestown (Guinness Handicap Chase) Favourites don’t win this but, though outsiders have come up at SPs of 10-1, 12-1 (twice), 14-1 and 28-1, five winners in the decade finished 9-2 to 8-1, three of those trained Willie Mullins.
Willie has one in that area of the market, Livelovelaugh, which Ruby Walsh seems to prefer to the favourite from the same stable, Class Conti.
Livelovelaugh has taken in the big festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree (close fourth 2nd Valentines in the Grand National) and Willie says that the gelding loves galloping and jumping.
Class Conti has form only on very soft or heavy ground in France and, on the last day, on his debut in Ireland when he won easily at Tramore after all but one of the field had fallen or pulled up in the mud.
I prefer 9.8 BETDAQ offer Jett, an easy winner at Fairyhouse nine days ago, when he beat the Champion Novice at this meeting a year ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.25 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win VERDANA BLUE
3.55 Ascot (win 50, win 20)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place NO NONSENSE
4.25 Ascot (win 20)
BET 1.5pts win and place ZAAKI
6.05 Punchestown (supernap)
BET 20pts win KEMBOY
7.10 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win and place JETT
DAQ MULTIPLES
(Favourites mix: 3 x 3pt doubles, 1pt treble)
CALYX
WEEKENDER
KEMBOY
EARLY BIRDS
(Flat nap)
3.25 Ascot WEEKENDER
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