2020 VISION AS DAQMAN CELEBRATES HUGE HAUL OF BIG-RACE HITS: Nap-Happy New Year! Daqman today launches his 2020 vision and updates his statistics in the Daqman Library, big-race winners year on year that have accumulated 760 (against 308) strikes in his BETDAQ-value battle with Pricewise. Here are his current accounts to the end of 2019: all special bets in profit.
ACCOUNTS UPDATE (NH season)
📈 Daqman 21, Pricewise 11 (+212.90 to +34.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets 38% (+164.25 from 7-18) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps: 2019 result 47% (+249 from 8-17) staked to win 50
📈 All Daily Naps 46% (+69.56 from 22-48) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 50% (+22.01 from 8-16) 20pt stakes at SP
BIGGEST OF THE 2019 BIG-RACE WINNERS
WON 20-1 WESTERN DAWN (Naas start to the Irish Flat)
WON 16-1 MUSTAJEER (Ebor Handicap)
WON 16-1 PHOENIX OF SPAIN (Irish 2,000 Guineas)
WON 14-1 LE BREUIL (NH Chase, Cheltenham)
WON 14-1 OXTED (Portland Handicap)
WON 14-1 PIVOINE (John Smith’s Cup)
WON 12-1 GOLDEN APOLLO (Ayr Silver Cup)
WON 10-1 JASSAAR (Irish Cambridgeshire)
2020 VISION: WHERE AND WHEN TO WIN AND FIND BETDAQ VALUE: Look out tomorrow for stats about the stats: which big races to bet in, which tracks are best, how to bag the big prices and offers? Follow Daqman’s FREE and totally TRANSPARENT daily selections and analysis in his 2020 vision, and realise fantastic BETDAQ value.
PLAY THEATRE AT 19.0 ON BETDAQ
12.50 Cheltenham Cogry won over this New course and distance less than three weeks ago, his second big run here in as many months, and he’s now racing off his highest mark.
Singlefarmpayment’s form against Cogry is 224 and, with cheekpieces first time, this is his best chance at the weights of getting revenge, but he has not won for three years and that was off 133 (he’s on 140 today).
Another Venture is 7lb higher than his winning mark, and Commodore 13lb higher. Equus Secretus is better than the bare form but that is all on good ground.
Kingswell Theatre, 11 years old today, has been dropping down the handicap. He runs here instead of the Sussex National at Plumpton next week.
He is now close to the mark of his 2017 Devon National win which was followed by cross-country success here at Cheltenham.
Second in the West Wales National and fourth in the Durham National last year, he looks good for a place at least in today’s conditions. I took 19.0.
Doing Fine cannot be penalised for the void race he ‘won’ – the London National at Sandown – and has to be the alternative at 6.2 as I write
OPEN THE CHAMPAGNE FOR CHAMP
1.25 Cheltenham (Dipper Novices’ Chase) Lostintranslation won this last year when rated 149, and here’s Champ bidding for a third Nicky Henderson win in seven years off 152.
That means he’s giving 5lb away all round but the previous Henderson winners, Whisper and Oscar Whisky, were both in that position, carrying 11st 7lb.
Deyrann De Carjac has some hope at the weights of closing down Champ on Newbury form, and the Frenchman, Matfog, adds spice to the occasion.
I was on Midnight Shadow at 8-1 when he won the Relkeel Nurdle a year ago. Couldn’t take advantage of a weight concession in a graduation chase on the last day and the handicapper has demoted him 5lb to 150.
The Dipper chase has produced five Cheltenham heroes but rarely from the winner of the race; the second horse home has gone on to score at the festival four times! Is this the Shadow over Champ?
AS YOU LIKE: IT’S CURTAIN UP..
1.40 Musselburgh After Champ, As You Like is a second horse to follow today with Fortune Cookie pretensions from my list, and J P McManus is hoping he is a champ in his own right.
J P’s five winners in the last fortnight have come at the expense of trainers’ fees, entry costs and transport for 83 horses (6% strike rate).
As You Like has performed a rare feat for Jonjo O’Neill. Jonjo’s form is very in and out but As You Like has been in the frame in nine consecutive starts since June, 2018 (won four), and has climbed 31lb in the handicap.
More to come? He seems worth an interest at 5.7 in the BETDAQ orange to crack market-rival Destiny!
MISTER JUST LOVES CHELTENHAM
2.00 Cheltenham Ballyhill gave Nigel Twiston Davies’ third recent win in the race two years ago and was third last year. Venetia Willams, who beat him that day with Aso, now runs Cepage.
Cepage has finished in the first four for 16 consecutive races, still standing. He’s just missed out twice (including over CD here) in his last three starts, which has cost him a 12lb rise.
But Oldgrangewood was a long way behind him at Aintree in November, which gives Cepage the edge today on a line to Kalashnikov.
Kalashnikov, who has finished first or second in 13 races, still standing, is up 13lb since winning the Manifesto at Aintree in the Spring.
At the revised weights, he dead-heats today with his Newbury conqueror, Old Grangewood, if they run the same race as in November.
Ballyhill has slipped a bit in the ratings and will attempt a comeback here but his overall Cheltenham form (1-8) is not encouraging, and he’s been beaten a total of 157 lengths in his last four starts.
Mister Whitaker goes well fresh and has Cheltenham form figures of 1141, still standing, including his Silver Trophy success over today’s CD in the Spring.
Ok Corral, who was well fancied but lost a shoe in the Ladbrokes Trophy, won a 3m Listed chase at this time last year but takes a drop in trip today.
Magic Saint has poor Cheltenham form and Ex Patriot has failed twice returned to novice company from open races. Mister Whitaker (BETDAQ 10.0) and Cepage (9.1) should both be thereabouts.
2.15 Musselburgh: With the ground drying out, and rails moved off the soggy patches, the track could ride to suit the sounder-surface winners of the last two seasons, Sir Chauvelin (2018) and Normal Norman (2019). Both are fit from recent AW races.
Ashington, Snookered and Newtown Boy have set up their winning sequences on the soft and at lower level.
In fact, all bar Ashington were easy to back in double figures this morning, with Normal Norman 6.2 and Sir Chauvelin 6.8
‘HIDDEN HORSE’ STORM WARNING
2.35 Cheltenham Plunge horse of the day is Ask Dillon (early mouse 15.0 offers taken on BETDAQ in to 7.9 as I write).
The Irish Point winner was third, stepped up from novice-hurdle class only five days ago for Fergal O’Brien, who also runs Goodbye Dancer, a CD winner here less than three weeks back. Skandiburg also scored when upped to 3m.
The Jam Man has completed a four-timer, chases and hurdles, but that has cost him a 17lb rise in the hurdles arena.
The hidden horse is the 2018 Albert Bartlett winner, Kilbricken Storm, who’s had wind ops since his seasonal debut, returning to hurdles. I took a bit of 8.5 in an open race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.50 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 10pts win DOING FINE
BET 2.75pts win KINGSWELL THEATRE
BET 3.5pts place KINGSWELL THEATRE
(place cover for both win bets)
1.25 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win CHAMP
1.40 Musselburgh (targets: win 10 and place 10)
BET 2pts win and 6pts place AS YOU LIKE
2.00 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.25pts win CEPAGE
BET 5.5pts win MISTER WHITAKER
2.15 Musselburgh (win 10 each)
BET 2pts win NORMAL NORMAN
BET 1.75pts win SIR CHAUVELIN
2.35 Cheltenham (targets: win 10 and place 10)
BET 1.25pts win and 4.75pts place KILBRICKEN STORM
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