35 POINTS PROFIT FROM TWO WINNERS OUT OF THREE: The naps sequence ended after four naps in a row but Daqman continued in profitable form yesterday with two winning bets out of three – All The Winds (WON 5-2) and Buckhorn Tom (won 2-1) – for a profit on the day of 35 points.
TOMORROW: EASY ABC GUIDE TO THE LINCOLN: What do the stats say will win the Lincoln? Daqman previews Saturday’s race with the horses best placed to take the first big Flat handicap. Don’t miss the ‘X’ Factor!
FRIDAY: THEY’RE OFF ON THE FLAT! It’s day one at Doncaster, the first day of the new season. Will Daqman pick up where he left off on his three bankers in a row in 2013? What will be his first banker lay? And his first jackpot double?
The market mugged me yesterday when my nap was a big drifter. Today I’m hoping it will happen the other way round with Moss Cloud (4.50 Haydock), who looked too big at 8.8 this morning.
The first four in his bumper at Sedgefield were all winners, and his trainer, Don McCain, has won all four runnings of this fixed-brush novices’ hurdle.
Moss Cloud is expected to appreciate today’s 2m 4f as the son of a Le Moss mare. He is up against a chaser, Brave Spartacus, and Gas Line Boy from the Hobbs yard which is going through a very lean time, with five of its last six runners all placed without winning, three of them favourite.
Annacotty is the one I fear. He comes from a race of winners at Chepstow but has a 7lb penalty for that and his stable is also missing strike badly, with six out of eight in the first five in the last fortnight without winning and leaving another losing favourite in its wake.
Talking of near misses, Awbeg Massini is making up into a heartbreaking bridesmaid with form figures of 23332, and may find Lone Ranger ready to gallop past him, stepped up in trip for the opening maiden (2.25) at Warwick after a good run at Wincanton.
5.45 Kempton (Betdaq Members Free Entry Every Wednesday Median Auction Maiden Stakes): Andrea Atzeni, tipped to make a riding breakthrough this year by Kieren Fallon in the trade paper today, partners Kohlaan for Roger Varian.
Atzeni and Varian were Saturday’s Winter Derby winners with Farraaj, in the same Sheik Ahmed colours as Kohlaan. There the resemblance ends.
Farraaj is a Group-3 horse, who will be sent on overseas missions for their better Group prizes, while Kohlaan needs a hood fitted tonight to help him get off the mark.
We saw how ‘blinds’ of some sort improved horses to win at Cheltenham last week. They can do the same on the Flat, putting an edge on a horse, even improving him, concentrating his mind.
Roger Varian is adept at fitting them to the right horse, with a 21% strike-rate, where others may be clutching at straws or fitting ‘the rogue’s badge.’ A who’s-who on blinkers application is a necessary guide to betting.
Richard Hannon, who’s had three winners from 10 starters in the last six days – all maidens – turned out a ‘very green’ Endorsing in December. He will be straighter now.
Green Special has twice been thereabouts at Wolverhampton but his yard has had just one win from 29 starters on AW this year, and a bigger threat may be Hornboy (Jeremy Noseda 4-11) who had winners behind him when third at Goodwood in October.
7.45 Kempton (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Handicap) A lot of negatives here: Eric Wheeler (Beggers Belief) hasn’t trained a winner in more than a year and Richard Rowe (Burnbrake) for five months.
Zoe Davison (Dolly Colman) is in the Racing Post out-of-form list, getting only 18% of their ability from her runners. Dolly Colman, Market Puzzle and Burnbrake are out of the handicap.
Positives: nine-times course winner Lytham was third in the race last year; Michael Murphy (El Bravo) has a 23% strike rate at Kempton; Bestfootforward is making her handicap debut bang on bottomweight.
The only winners in the field that we haven’t mentioned so far are Market Puzzle, Midnight Bahia and Time Square. The Dean Ivory yard has spent the last five weeks trying to get Midnight Bahia (8.6 on BETDAQ as I write) to settle better at home and they’ve switched jockeys to Adam Kirby.
8.15 Kempton (Back And Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) Byroness drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, right over the betting weir to 13.0 but that still left three horses within 1.07 points of each other.
Flashlight came to AW as an after thought – in fact, after a disappointing sequence as a bridesmaid on turf – whereas Mystical Sapphire has beaten winners in two out of two over today’s CD.
But I just prefer Melvin The Grate, who needed only hand riding to score here in November and is said to have the Esher Cup as his target this Spring.
8.45 Kempton (Betdaq Games £50 Cash Bonus Handicap (London Mile Qualifier)): Lady Macduff is a fair back-and-lay bet at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning as a front-runner who goes well fresh.
But Lord Of The Shadows has won in a higher grade and has been crying out for blinkers, which are applied for the first time today.
Russian Ice is four times a course winner over 7f but this mile has always seemed within reach. Tiger’s Tale, who landed back-to-back wins last Spring, would need to have improved over the winter. Rakaan isn’t out of it, despite giving weight all round.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to win 10pts AWBEG MASSINI and BET 7.8pts win LONE RANGER (2.25 Warwick)
BET 2.5pts win (nap) MOSS CLOUD (4.50 Haydock)
BET 2.6pts win MIDNIGHT BAHIA (7.45 Kempton)
BET 7pts win MELVIN THE GRATE (8.15 Kempton)
BET 4pts win LORD OF THE SHADOWS and 2.2pts win LADY MACDUFF (8.45 Kempton)
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