SECRET OF THE CHELTENHAM WINNERS: The first-day at Cheltenham yesterday saw form upsets on the drying ground (the Champion Hurdle was won in faster-than-average time) but the key to the day was to back previous festival winners and placed horses. They won six of the seven races!
Today’s Daqman analysis includes previous festival places.
OWNERS J P McManus reached 50 festival winners yesterday
TRAINERS Gordon Elliott landed a hat-trick, Nicky Henderson a double
JOCKEYS Jack Kennedy at 25-1 hero of the day aged 17
TIPS CHALLENGE update: Daqman leads Pricewise 18-12
MASSIVE VALUE OF BETDAQ MARKETS: Daqman warned you yesterday of huge bookmaker take-outs in overrounds up to 130% compared with a near-level playing field on BETDAQ. Here’s how today’s morning BETDAQ offers, race by race, compare with yesterday’s SP Total percentage returns:
BETDAQ 7 am today 102 101 105 101 104 104 105
SP Totals yesterday 122 134 130 119 121 122 135
* To compare like for like, check those Betdaq offers with the results as they come in today. We will!
ELLIOTT TO SHATTER LAYERS AGAIN?
1.30 Cheltenham (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle)
STATS Neon Wolf and Willloughby Court are top rated to extend the success of six year olds to six out of seven off 148 and 147 respectively (Faugheen was 152 when he won it).
FORM Neon Wolf has yet to go much beyond 18f but has done it easily and like a stayer, drawing clear of Elgin at Haydock before that one finished about the equal of yesterday’s Supreme third, River Wylde, at Kempton, though Elgin himself let the side down yesterday, only seventh in the Supreme.
The runner-up to Willoughby Court at Warwick won 13 lengths next time and the third horse was being foiled of a five-timer after beating Albert Bartlett second favourite, Wholestone, at Cheltenham.
Bacardys is on a hat-trick today but was also let down in the Supreme, this time by the horse that ran up to him in the Deloitte, Bunk Off Early (finished 12 of 14).
Brelade, who ran second in the Future Champions at Leopardstown over Christmas, was third in the Deloitte.
PREVIOUS FESTIVAL: Bacardys (3rd 2016 Champion Bumper)
VERDICT Willoughby Court has proved himself at the trip. Messire Des Obeaux, Keeper Hill, Neon Wolf, Shattered Love, Bon Papa, Brelade and Bacardys should all be suited by it on breeding.
So it’s not as easy as the handicapper says or the market dictates. You can choose what’s in the book (Willoughby Court 15.0 on BETDAQ) or speculate on the promise of any one of the others.
My pick of the ’potential’ would be Gordon Elliott’s Shattered Love (12.5). He’s done well since going down half a length in the autumn to the highly-regarded Airlie Beach, and the worry about Willoughby Court is that he likes to front run, which makes him a sitting duck. Or a trade horse, depending on your BETDAQ position!
COLIN CAN PAY FOR YOUR VACATION
2.10 Cheltenham (RSA Novices’ Chase):
STATS Most of these are too old on the stats: 23 consecutive eight-year-olds have failed to win this since 2006, and seven-year-olds are nine out of 10.
FORM Those stats are against two at the front of the market, Might Bite and Whisper. Might Bite had beaten nothing well at odds on when he went well clear of Royal Vacation in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but came down.
Whisper is a strange age to be in a novice chaser with just three runs over fences at nine years old, the last two at Cheltenham both wins but both in small fields.
At the Punchestown Festival last year, Bellshill had Acapella Bourgeois five lengths behind but the handicapper says that Acapella’s recent burst of form on soft-heavy has taken him 7lb clear of that rival.
But even that is nothing compared to the blushing readjustment the handicapper has made to Royal Vacation’s 129 and 131 rating of the autumn, which now has him on 152.
He was hiked 12lb for winning that Kauto Star novices and another 9lb for scoring at Cheltenham, despite a drop back in trip.
Alpha des Obeaux was made 6-1 favourite in some books for this RSA after winning impressively at Cork in November but he has his problems. If Mouse Morris has him right after giving him a holiday, he will go close.
PREVIOUS FESTIVALS: Whisper (won 2014 Coral Cup), Alpha Des Obeaux (2nd 2016 World Hurdle)
VERDICT: Acapella Bourgeois (155) is within a pound of Don Poli’s rating when he won this and has surged recently, but his form is front-running on soft-heavy, while Might Bite (154) has made mistakes in all his chases.
Sandra Hughes assures us that Acapella won’t mind the ground or being tucked in, so we’ll give him a whirl at 8.6 on BETDAQ
But I understand that Colin Tizzard has given instructions to break their hearts and destroy the favourite’s jumping with a big round in the van from Royal Vacation (13.0 offers). ‘We can do the attacking because we know he stays,’ says Colin.
WE’RE A STONE IN HAND AT 18.0
2.50 Cheltenham (Coral Cup)
STATS Horses aged five and six have won six out of eight, and eight out of 10 carried 11st 3lb or less.
FORM: Have you ever seen a hot race like this? The first four home in last year’s Supreme were: Altior, Min, Buveur d’Air, Tombstone!
This column has already backed Tombstone at 18.0, so we can afford to find something to beat him, as well as laying off the stake at around 5.5 this morning.
If Willoughby Court has won the first, Peregrine Run will be vying for favouritism in this. Peregrine was third to that one at Warwick after a holiday which followed a four-timer, including defeat of one of the Albert Bartlett favourites, Wholestone, over today’s CD on good ground.
PREVIOUS FESTIVALS: Hawk High (won 2014 Fred Winter), Taquin Du Seuil (won 2014 JLT Chase), Modus (2nd 2015 Champion Bumper), Hargam (3rd 2015 Triumph Hurdle), Monksland (3rd 2012 Neptune), Tombstone (4th 2016 Supreme)
VERDICT: I took some 10.5 Peregrine Run to add to the 18.0 Tombstone, which I reckon gives me a hot hand in this race.
LONE FOX CAN HUNT UP DOUVAN
3.30 Cheltenham (Queen Mother Champion Chase)
FORM Altior still won easily yesterday, despite an off day. Douvan could do the same, but we all hope and expect him to treat this field with disdain.
In the light of subsequent Irish Gold Cup form, Douvan’s sauntering defeat of Sizing John on Boxing Day was one of the top performances of the season.
PREVIOUS FESTIVALS: Douvan (won 2015 Supreme Novice Hurdle, won 2016 Arkle), Gods Own (2nd 2015 Arkle, 4th 2016 Champion Chase), Fox Norton (3rd 2016 Arkle), Special Tara (3rd 2015 and 12016 Champion Chase)
VERDICT We can put Douvan in our multiples but we can also get bigger odds for a place than he is for a win on any one of the rest of the field. Fox Norton gives you three chances of a return at around even money.
50.0 SHOT IS NO LOST CAUSE..
4.10 Cheltenham (Cross Country)
STATS Past results warn you to steer clear of the old brigade (no winner over the age of 10) because this is fast run on top of the ground not a slog in the mud.
FORM Cause Of Causes has landed me a 44.0 Cheltenham NH Chase win and another at 11.0 in the Kim Muir, so he owes me nothing and is strongly fancied here (5.1 on BETDAQ) by the in-form Gordon Elliott stable, which gave him a site of banks racing in January.
FESTIVAL Any Currency (twice), Bless The Wings, Quantitativeeasing (twice) and Third Intention all finished in first four in this race before but the first three named are 12 and 14 years old now, as is Cantlow
VERDICT The going is not certain to suit my second choice Auvergnat, so I’ll try to pot a big outsider (50.0 in the pocket) with Kingswell Theatre. His stable is in great form and he could just take to the banks
DOLOS OR STAN’S DREAM CATCHER
4.50 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle)
STATS A pinstickers’ race, with rank outsiders winning at 40-1, 33-1 and 25-1 (twice) in the last five years, although you should not look beyond the top yards.
FORM Paul Nicholls has won three since 2010, and goes for a hat-trick today. There’s a strong word for the former Gullaume Macaire four-year-old Dolos, dropping back to the trip and ground which brought success first time of asking in UK in a race in which Nichols has previously launched a top-class type.
But the stable also runs one – Dreamcatching – off 11st 2lb with Stan Sheppard’s claim taking him into the winningmost weights zone. (9-10 carried 11st 2lb or less).
VERDICT: Dolos has kept quality company, third to Defi Du Seuil before third again at Taunton, with the first two going on to take serious handicaps: 12.5 on BETDAQ. Dreamcatching 14.5. Dino Velvet (20.0) is whispered on the grapevine.
SOMEDAY A BUMPER BET ON FORM
5.30 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper)
STATS Another which was a pinstickers’ race (Cue Card won it at 40-1), then suddenly – in the last two seasons – very strong contenders have landed gambles, Moon Racer and Ballyandy at 9-2 and 5-1 SP respectively.
But they had something in common with the previous nine winners: every one had won his last race, and none had ever been out of the first four in any race under Rules leading up to this. Not a one.
FORM Those stats delete nine and I can’t have a four-year-old or a small-time stable. So I’m choosing from Carter McKay, Next Destination, Someday, Fayonagh
VERDICT: On collateral form, Carter Mackay beat Bakmaj, who beat Imperial Way, who in turn was was slammed by Someday.
Some day collateral form will triumph..! BETDAQ layers offer 10.0 against it doing so now. I’ll take that.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW:
1.30 NEON WOLF
2.50 TOMBSTONE
3.30 DOUVAN
3.30 FOX NORTON
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST BETS:
2.50 TOMBSTONE (to win 100 at 18.0)
DAQMAN’S BETS ON THE DAY:
Bull’s-eye bets to win 50 points each
1.30 SHATTERED LOVE (4.3pts win at 12.5)
1.30 WILLOUGHBY COURT (3.5pts win and place 15.0)
2.10 ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (6.5pts win at 8.6)
2.10 ROYAL VACATION (4pts win and place at 13.0)
2.50 PEREGRINE RUN (5.25pts win at 10.5)
4.10 CAUSE OF CAUSES, nap (12pts win at 5.1)
4.10 KINGSWELL THEATRE (1pt win and place at 50.0)
4.50 DOLOS (4.3pts win at 12.5)
4.50 DREAMCATCHING (3.7pts win at 14.5)
4.50 DINO VELVET (2.5pts win and place at 20.0)
5.30 SOMEDAY (5pts win and place at 10.0)
DAQ MULTIPLES
6 x 1pt win doubles
1.30 SHATTERED LOVE
2.50 TOMBSTONE
4.10 CAUSE OF CAUSES
5.30 SOMEDAY
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