7-1 HIT AS NAPS PROFIT PASSES 600 POINTS: Daqman backed an outsider at 10.5 win and double stakes a place (nap) on BETDAQ yesterday, landing more stunning value with Busatto (WON 7-1) at Beverley to take his profits to 616 points in exactly four weeks, assuming a notional 20 points level stakes.
NOW 20 BEST BETS UP FROM 28: That was winner number 20 in the 28-day sequence for a 71% strike rate, back to back with Sunday’s French Guineas nap, Karakontie. The sequence already includes 5-1 and 6-1 scorers.
Here it is from April 14:
WON 6-1 ANIPA
(one loser)
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
WON 2-1 LITIGANT
WON 5-1 SEA SHANTY
(one loser)
WON 7-4 TOKYO JAVILEX
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS (banker)
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES (banker)
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER (banker)
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN (banker)
(one loser)
WON 5-2 I’M YOURS
WON 5-4 MAN OF HARLECH
WON 1-1 LITTLE BIG MAN (banker)
WON 11-8 BEAT THAT
WON 4-5 ARCTIC FIRE (banker)
(three losers)
WON 8-11 LAMB OR COD (banker)WON 11-8 PRINCE OF STARS
(one loser)
WON 2-1 FLOW
(one loser)
WON 6-4 KARAKONTIE
WON 7-1 BUSATTO
DAQMAN 30, PRICEWISE 9, AS YORK OPENS: Daqman made it 30 Flat feature-race wins to 9 for Pricewise (overall 69-21) with Sunday’s French Guineas winner. Follow their battle for value in the 1.45, 2.45 and 3.15 on the first day of the York Dante meeting.
ASTAIRE CAN LEAD THEM ALL A DANCE
1.45 York They win low drawn, they come rattling down the wide outside. But, on the soft today, albeit expected to be drying in sunshine, it will be hard to take that outside route, so I’ll stick to the rails.
Pro punter Alex Bird summed up for me the peculiarities of the terrain at York in these words: ‘If it’s soft at York, you want a soft-ground York winner.’
That puts you on Rye House and Tres Coronas, who landed some good bets at Chester last week. He’s never won this high in the handicap before and never put back-to-back wins together (neither has Maven).
Rye House is a ‘glass’ horse, a five-year-old with only six runs to his name. Has he been ‘got up’ specially for this by trainer Stoute? Well, he’s been gelded, and that could concentrate the mind (ouch!). Landed a gamble at this May meeting last year and ideally drawn in 5.
I expect Awake My Soul (in gate 8) to cross over and lead, tracked by Hi There (in 3), Silvery Moon (7) – seventh in the Lincoln – and last year’s runner-up, Lahaag (4).
It’s doubtful whether Storm King (10) can get over to the rail. Pasaka Boy (14), another who likes to be in touch, is even further out. Grandorio could be best of the hold-up horses; a winner at York, a winner first time; but 10lb higher now, and might be swallowed up on the rail.
VERDICT: Rye House, 4.5 favourite this morning on BETDAQ, and the 9.8 offer Lahaag (will need a strong pace) have a touch of class, in among handicappers, though Grandorio – he’s only four – could improve.
2.15 York I can write about this race until we have a democracy but you haven’t got time. These sprinters all take turns and it’s a big field. So I’m going for the two most likely to, with reasons why.
Jamaican Bolt is owned by the sponsor: 13.0 on BETDAQ, as I write. And Royal Rascal is disguised and could bounce back: 12.0 this morning.
2.45 York (Musidora Stakes) The last two Oaks winners have never won another race, and the Epsom fillies’ Classic badly needs another Hero, if only – for breeders’ sakes – to be mated with her Derby-winning Leander.
Sir Michael Stoute 8, John Gosden 3; the rest nowhere. That’s the trainers’ record in this Musidora trial, which produces the Oaks winner at Epsom once a decade (1989, 1997, 2009).
Stoutie, who started life wanting to be the BBC racing commentator, might have reported as Shama strolled home at Lingfield: ‘Could be anything’. In fact, he said nothing, but Ryan Moore got off and said: ‘Big, strong filly, who could be anything.’
In fact, you can repeat that hack phrase for Cambridge, Madame Chiang and Queen of Ice, all seen very little of, but less so for those we have seen three times, or even more. The last five Musidora winners had had no more than two races.
What to expect on today’s softish ground? No idea with Cambridge, who is a Rail Link (progeny massively better on firm) out of a mare by soft-ground sire Selkirk. Very helpful.
Queen Of Ice is a daughter of Selkirk, and won first time out on soft when ‘clueless’ and had a winning run back in a small race on Polytrack ‘still green’. Sounds like she ‘could be anything’ but the stable comments also translate as ‘needs time’. Is she ready for the bigger battle?
Regardez is neatly named by Champs Elysees out of Look See, the dam, by soft-ground sire, Efisio, being a half-sister to Look Here, who won the Oaks.
Regardez, beaten by Cambridge at Nottingham, trotted up on the soft at Doncaster – though that was last year – and her trainer has since won the Lingfield Oaks Trial with Honor Bound.
Lady Heidi and the much-exposed Lily Rules are top rated but they would be, wouldn’t they, as their experience tots up the points for pounds.
Eastern Belle, by the same sire as Regardez, gave the money away last time, beaten favourite, but John Gosden has won this with a maiden before now.
Shama, Cambridge and Queen of Ice are all 5.2 or less, as I write. If you want to take sides then, despite the apparent shortness of their odds, you are in punter-friendly territory, in a 105% BETDAQ orange.
VERDICT: Charles Hills, who has lost his top fillies Chriselliam and Kiyoshi from the front line this Spring, now relies on Cambridge as his blue, but surely he is asking too much of a third string.
Shama would be the first produced from AW surfaces to win this, but her trainer has captured the Lingfield Derby Trial and Regardez is from the stable that won the Oaks trial at the same meeting.
The depth of their yards speaks for them but a filly not so far entered in the Oaks may hold the key to this, unbeaten representative of the Cheveley Park Stud who loves the soft ground, Queen Of Ice. But, good fillies all, they could be anything.
3.15 York (Duke Of York Stakes): Another sprint but this is different. It’s high quality. Some of the runners are rarely, if ever, up to it, like the forever-bridesmaid Es Que Love (no it isn’t; you cost too much), Boomerang Bob (don’t come back).
But there’s a bunch of reliable Group horses, or nearly so. I marked down Astaire for this after a great run behind the Guineas one-two in the Greenham and I know that Kevin Ryan thinks he’s a champion.
Astaire is already a Group-1 winner and Jack Dexter has tripped up at Group-2 stage, albeit beating most of these. Moviesta prefers 5f, and a Goodwood five at that.
Astaire is a big price because as he’s only three, so it’s a brave nap, but he gets nearly two lengths from most on a course and going he likes. He will get to the front and be hard to pass.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet is staked for 20 points profit at morning BETDAQ offers)
BET 5.7pts win RYE HOUSE and 2.2pts win LAHAAG (1.45 York)
BET 1.8pts win ROYAL RASCAL and 1.6pts win JAMAICAN BOLT (2.15 York)
BET 4.8pts win QUEEN OF ICE (2.45 York)
BET 5pts win (nap) ASTAIRE (3.15 York)
DAQMAN is the BETDAQ name of a long-time winning tipster, professional gambler and racing writer. He is independent and has no association with this exchange or any bookmaker.
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