THREE-IN-ONE DAQMAN COLUMN: Daqman stays way out in front of the rest in Grand National week with another column they’ll all be talking about:
GRAND NATIONAL: What’s the profile of Grand National winners on experience? Daqman checks it out and finds a lucky seven that are a close match to the form, fitness and chasing CV of recent winners.
LIVERPOOL LAUNCH: There are hot contests before the National on Thursday and Friday in races like the Aintree Hurdle and the Topham Chase. What should we expect?
TODAY’S RACING: Finally, Daqman previews this afternoon’s racing from the best of four meetings, jumps and AW.
IT’S THE RIGHT TIME FOR SUPER-FIT LUCKY SEVEN IN THE NATIONAL
- SEVEN of the last nine Grand National winners had raced over fences a limited number of times: just 10 (one of them), 11 (two) 12 (two), 13 or 14 only.
- All SEVEN had won or been second over 3m 4f plus or placed in a Hennessy or an Irish National
- The SEVEN were super fit, all seen on a racecourse after February 18. Here are Saturday’s qualifiers in BETDAQ-market order:
1 Betdaq 10.0 TEAFORTHREE 14 chases, ran March 14
2 Betdaq 16.0 Monbeg Dude 11 chases, ran March 1
3 Betdaq 23.0 Pineau De Re 14 chases, ran March 13
4 Betdaq 24.0 Burton Port 14 chases, ran March 1
5 Betdaq 24.0 Triolo d’Alene 13 chases, ran March 14
6 Betdaq 30.0 Big Shu 11 chases, ran March 12
7 Betdaq 88.0 Raz De Maree 10 chases, ran March 18
CLUES FROM THE STATS
FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS AT AINTREE
LIVERPOOL TOMORROW
2.30 Aintree Bowl Last year’s 1-2-3, First Lieutenant, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti make up 50% of the field in a race for which the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ryanair are the best guides.
Dynaste won this year’s Ryanair, and Silviniaco Conti was fourth in the Gold Cup. Dynaste is the official top rating for the race.
3.05 Aintree Hurdle Champion Hurdle second and fourth and World Hurdle fifth have gone on to win this in the last four seasons.
The New One’s connections were looking for revenge here after an unlucky Champion third (Our Conor tragically fell in front of him) but only the sixth and eighth, Ptit Zig and Grumeti, may take him on again.
3.05 Fox Hunters’ Chase Not to be confused with the Foxhunter Challenge Cup at Cheltenham, not least because it throws up different results.
Cloudy Lane (Foxhunter sixth) won this in 2012, Baby Run (the 2011 winner) had unseated rider at Cheltenham, Trust Fund (2009) was only tenth, Christy Beamish (2008) had fallen. Those are the only connections between winners of the two races in the decade.
4.50 Manifesto Novices’ Chase All five winners of this had finished in the first five in the old Jewson or in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
Runners from among Attaglance, Ballycasey, Dodging Bullets, Double Ross, Felix Yonger, Trifolium, Uxizandre and Western Warhorse – all in the frame at Cheltenham last month – would make this the race of the day.
LIVERPOOL FRIDAY
2.30 Mildmay Novices’ Chase Don’t miss this or you might not see the next Big Buck’s, Burton Port, Silvinicao Conti or Dynaste, who have all won it since 2008.
It may be a case of look no further than O’Faolains Boy, if he bids to repeat his RSA victory at Cheltenham, though Alan King, who trained the runner-up that day, may switch to another festival second, Uxizandre.
3.05 Melling Chase The roll of honour for this in the decade has included Moscow Flyer, Monet’s Garden, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre.
The last two winners were doubling up on their Cheltenham Champion Chase triumphs but this year’s is a modest renewal with Wishfull Thinking (2nd in the Queen Mother in 2012, fifth this year) top rated. I’ll be looking for something to beat him.
3.40 Topham Chase If this year’s National still confuses you, try spotting the winner from past results of this, run over the big fences. Triolo d’Alene won it last year but was getting a stone from the threeparts-of-a-length runner-up, Walkon. Any good?
4.15 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle Last year’s winner of this was following up from the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, but I’m looking for the family connection this time.
Apache Jack who was third in last month’s Albert Bartlett, is a full brother to Black Jack Ketchum, who won this Sefton Hurdle in 2006.
TODAY’S RACING: It’s a ‘pick and mix’ with a tip from each of the meetings today.
LINGFIELD 2.25
Gaelic Silver looks the bet of the day in the Ladbrokes Claiming Stakes at 2.25. He is officially rated the best horse in the race and the drop in grade should prove pivotal. He ran well in a better class race over course and distance last time out and the return to claiming company can bring about another win for trainer Gary Moore.
WINCANTON 2.45
There are a quite a few last time out winners here including Breaking Bits who made all to win at Fontwell last time out beating Golanova by two lengths with 22 lengths back to the third. This is tougher but he can go close. Ladies Dancing is the steamer after a spell on the flat.
SOUTHWELL 4.05
Two of the bigger players, Eva Clare and Razin’ Hell, are non runners which can leave the coast clear (excuse the pun!) for Scarborough to follow up her easy six length success last week. She picks up a 6lb penalty but can overcome that and the drop back to five furlongs./
KEMPTON 6.25
When is a race not a race? When it’s the 5.55 at Kempton. A shocking entry of just two runners and the favourite trading at 1.03 on BETDAQ. Incredible that a race worth £2,500 to the winner can be so neglected. In the 6.25 Ishiamber should be able to defy her 6lb penalty for her course and distance win last week. She won with plenty in hand and has a fitness advantage over her chief rival Princess Spirit.
LEOPARDSTOWN 4.40
Kingbarns looked a world beater at one stage when he won the Racing Post Trophy before injury struck. He was last seen when running a cracker in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot when third to Olympic Glory and should have easily enough class for this field.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) GAELIC SILVER (2.25 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win BREAKING BITS (2.45 Wincanton)
BET 8pts win SCARBOROUGH (4.05 Southwell)
BET 8pts win ISHIAMBER (6.25 Kempton)
BET 1.5 pts acca above four with KINGSBARNS (4.40 Leopardstown)
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