11-4 WIN FROM THE OLD BAY WHISTLE TEST: The Good News. Daqman made a profit on the day again yesterday via Salt Whistle Bay (WON 11-4). The Bad News. No sooner had he – and Frankie Dettori – declared themselves for Without Parole in the 2,000 Guineas than the colt revealed a foot problem in his morning work. Frankie now rides James Garfield.
DAQMAN IS DRAWN TO A BETDAQ 39.0 BET: Daqman follows the stats at Ascot and Pontefract, which say that you need horses that win when fresh, a trainer in form and a good draw. Will they work out for him at BETDAQ offers up to 39.0.
THE BALLYDOYLE ROVER IS BACK
2.00 Ascot I had marked this race in my diary because nine of the 10 winners (fields of all sizes) were draw one, two or three. Unfortunately, that’s hardly relevant today, though the race is remarkable because Aidan O’Brien has a runner.
So far his two-year-olds (strike rate 2-3) are just about the only sector he has up to the mark this year.
The Irish Rover, sired by the Norfolk Stakes and Prix Morny winner, No Nay Never, already has a satisfactory run under his belt.
2.35 Ascot Another poor response from trainers, with just four runners, one of them, Dathanna, a stone in front on all known form.
Her trainer, Charlie Appleby, continues in amazing form (1114014100113021210) and his colt, Masar, at 6.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange, now looks the value in the 2,000 Guineas market.
Dettori switches to James Garfield, whom he describes as ‘tough.’ This is often a euphemism for ‘lacks class’.
IT MIGHT ADD UP TO MONTALY
3.10 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) Another Irish raider but Jessica Harrington (Torcedor) has been badly out of form – 24 straight losers in four weeks on the Flat – with the lucky Supersundae her only real break through the clouds.
Torcedor also has straight defeats at Ascot, three of them. But it would be foolish to leave him out on those grounds, with one of them a close second to Order Of St George in the British Champions Long Distance Cup (Desert Skyline in rear).
The Group-race penalised Desert Skyline has won all his races in the autumn, and will be prepared long-term for the Melbourne Cup.
Another to consider is Montaly, who won the Chester Cup on his reappearance last season, and took the Lonsdale at York. But his best form is on a sound surface.
In fact, the stats say that younger horses usually win this (7 out of 10 in the decade were four or five), and the game Time To Study, who won the Mallard at Doncaster, has his ground, though needs to find 10lb on the ratings.
Raheen House has been a nearly horse, never quite fulfilling expectations. Whether this step up in trip is the answer remains to be seen. Brian Meehan is bullish but then he’s always bullish.
All things considered, the 9.6 Montaly is too big for a horse that wins when fresh and won’t have many opportunities at his age in top company.
3.45 Ascot A Group-3 sprint (6f) for three-year-olds, in which Limato came to prominence.
Is there a new star here. Well, it’s all high risk and three year olds may not all train on.
But Charlie Appleby, he of the hot form figures, reckons Sound And Silence (6.4 BETDAQ) looks the real deal for the top sprints this year.
I’M DRAWN TO BACK BIG OUTSIDERS
3.55 Pontefract (Coral Supporting the Northern Racing College Handicap) Eight out of nine winners of this came – in chronological order – from stalls 2,1,3,1,3,3,1,1 so worth a race worth a punt, eh!
The qualifiers (we’ve lost one in a low stall) are now Dasheen (23.0 BETDAQ offers), a hidden horse. Won when fresh in Ireland and new yard had a winner yesterday.
Ghayyar (39.0) has also moved stables and his new yard is also in form. Down in the handicap, Mutarakez (7.8) was back to form recently.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Ascot (win 30)
BET 3.5pts win MONTALY
3.45 Ascot (win 30)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) SOUND AND SILENCE
BET 4pts win (stakes saver) INVINCIBLE ARMY
3.55 Pontefract
BET 3pts win (to win 20) MUTARAKEZ
BET 1pt win and place (minimum stake) DASHEEN
BET 1pt win and place (minimum stake) GHAYYAR
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca The Irish River (2.00 Ascot), Dathanna (2.35 Ascot), Montaly (3.10 Ascot) and Mutarakez (3.55 Pontefract)
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