SUPERNAP AMONG 10 WINS IN A WEEK: Now it’s a whole week with at least one winning bet a day, after two more Daqman strikes yesterday, including a supernap launch to the Punchestown festival. That’s 10 wins in seven consecutive days.
WON 4-7 ENERGUMENE (supernap)
WON 6-5 ESPRESSOO
DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE TO THE GOLD CUP: Today it’s all about two views of gold, Flat and Jumps. Daqman’s ABC guide to the Punchestown Gold Cup is followed by his verdict on the Sagaro Stakes Gold Cup Trial at Ascot. He has BETDAQ bets at 11.0, 7.6, 6.7 and 5.6.
Tomorrow: the 2,000 Guineas
INDO BACK ON THE GOLD PODIUM
🏆 5.55 Punchestown Gold Cup (3m) This is one of the races even those in stats-denial can’t ignore for the regularity of returns according to age and races won, as follows:
STATS and KEY: A: 100% winners had won a graded race and at least three chases; B: 90% were of single-figure age; C: 90% had won at around 3m; D: 70% had won previously on the Punchestown chase course; L: Leading trainers Willie Mullins (5 in 22 years), Paul Nicholls 3.
ABCD GALVIN (rated 167)
Four consecutive 3m wins on good, good to soft, but beaten on soft. Won 2021 NH Chase at Cheltenham (3m 6f) but modest fourth in 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f+), lacking a gear change and allowing revenge by A Plus Tard, whom he had beaten in the Savills.
ABCD MINELLA INDO (170)
Won the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup (from A Plus Tard) on good to soft, but beaten, second, this Spring in both the Irish Gold and the Cheltenham Gold Cup, both on good to soft, after cheekpieces were tried in the King George at Kempton (pulled up behind Tornado Flyer and Clan des Obeaux).
ABCL TORNADO FLYER (165)
Third to Allaho (who beat him 12 lengths) and Fakir D’Oudairies in the 2021 Ryanair at Cheltenham, and behind Allaho and Janidil in the John Durkan, but 28-1 surprise winner of Kempton King George (3m soft). Mistakes and pulled up Cheltenham Gold Cup.
ABDL ALLAHO (176)
LAYS LOGIC: runner-up over 3m at Cheltenham in the Brown Advisory (ex-RSA) in 2020 and, same year, fourth, beaten 20 lengths by A Plus Tard in the Savills (overall 3m form: 13234). Raced only around 2m 4f since, beating Janidil in the John Durkan and the Ryanair, either side of Grade-2 defeat of Fakir D’Oudairies at Thurles.
AB FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (165)
Third, beaten 18 lengths, behind Clan des Obeaux and Al Boum Photo in this race last year, and eights lengths by Allaho in the John Durkan here in December. Back-to-back Grade-1 wins since over 2m 4-5f.
ACDL CLAN DES OBEAUX (172)
Only one dual winner of this race (2007-8) and that was a young horse, whereas ‘Clan’ is now 10 and, following last year’s success from Al Boum Photo and Fakir D’Oudairies, was beaten in the King George and the Denman, though had Kemboy nine-lengths third in the Aintree Bowl three weeks ago.
ACDL KEMBOY (165)
Beat Al Boum Photo two lengths when they were one-two in this race in 2019 (soft) and won the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February, 2021 (soft). Beaten in Grade-1 races since by Minella Indo, Clan des Obeaux (twice), Allaho and Galvin, successively.
ACL AL BOUM PHOTO (165)
Second in this race in 2019 and 2021 during his reign over the Cheltenham Gold Cup (2019 and 2020 winner) but could only place in the same races last Spring, and – aged 10 now – was well beaten at Cheltenham this year in first–time cheekpieces.
BL JANIDIL (164)
Looked like taking high rank when running up to Allaho in the John Durkan here in December (2m 4f) but disappointing over 3m in the Savills and the Irish Gold Cup (third); brought back to 2m 4f but even further behind Allaho in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, and fell at Fairyhouse the last day, odds on in a Grade 2.
Verdict Allaho is the big improver in this field but he’s a short price to maintain the surge over 3m, and the longer trip has found him out consistently.
Minella Indo’s Cheltenham Gold Cup of 2021 was tactically laid on for him by Frodon, when he finished in front of two of today’s rivals.
There was plenty of pace on for the repeat in March and, though he got there too soon, this time had three of today’s field in rear, and there’s no A Plus Tard today. Tongue-tie will help him boss Clan des Obeaux, Allaho and a Galvin at his best, if his stable form is anything to go by (four-timer for Gordon Elliott yesterday).
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 7.6 Minella Indo
⭕ 7.05 Punchestown At last my Fethard friend, Mouse Morris, returns Foxy Jacks to a right-handed track – in fact, in a race he won last year – after fine efforts going left at Leopardstown, firstly in the big Christmas chase then when runner-up in the Leopardstown Chase in February.
BETDAQ value 11.0
TASH TO LAND BETDAQ VALUE 6.7
⭕ 3.35 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) They’ve titled the race ‘a Gold Cup Trial’ but – with two exceptions since 1995 – the Gold Cup winners of this race were winning AFTER their ‘gold,’ like Stradivarius last year.
The exceptions were Colour Vision (2012) and Estimate (2013), side by side. It’s no surprise that both were four-year-olds, new kids in the quality stayers’ arena, prepping to make their mark.
It would be a boost for the race and more than a glint of a hint of ‘gold’ in June if Tashkan or Wordsworth of that age could score here and line themselves up for the royal meeting.
Ballydoyle ran cold for a while but Wordsworth was one of the breakthrough winners and Aidan O’Brien is now in a hot top-gear with 10 strikes in six days.
Whether it was because the yard was struggling to fire, Wordsworth was hardly impressive in snatching that prep race by a head.
But the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris placer, brother to St Leger winner Kew Gardens, was always going to be a stayer and this first run at 2m today is his big chance.
Tashkhan seemed just a handicapper until Brian Ellison pitched him into the Ebor (fifth) at 16-1, the Chaudenay at 35-1 and the British Champions Long Distance Cup at 50-1.
Those three races shot him up 23lb and, as a three-year-old running second to Truesham for the stayer’s title, he had Stradivarius back in third.
That was an incredible performance by a horse who began 2021 winning off 57 in Ireland.
He goes to post here on 116, some 6lb ahead of the Irish Derby third, Wordsworth, but 6.7 on BETDAQ this morning to Wordsworth’s 3.7. Since the market is only 107% as I write, I can spare a pound as a saver on the favourite.
⭕ 1.50 Ascot The freegoing Good Birthday, winner over 1m 2f in quality handicaps last year – including the Zetland Gold Cup – drops back to a mile with the significant booking of 7lb claimer Harry Davies, already with 10 winners this year. BETDAQ 5.6
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Ascot (win 20, nap)
BET 4.25pts win GOOD BIRTHDAY
3.35 Ascot (win 15 and win 2.7)
BET 2.7pts win TASHKAN
BET 1pt win (saver) WORDSWORTH
5.55 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 3pts win MINELLA INDO
7.05 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 2pts win FOXY JACKS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
