9/4 WINNING NAP: DAQMAN followed up on his 4.9 profit on Monday with a further 5.05 points profit on Tuesday after his nap of the day Tabassor WON 9/4 at Nottingham.
CLASSIC ANALYSIS FOR FESTIVALS AT GOODWOOD AND THE CURRAGH: Daqman’s Classic countdown continues today with analysis of the trio of Ballydoyle colts at the front of the Epsom Derby market, and what The Lads will look for in a potential challenge for the French version, while keeping one at home for the Curragh.
➡️ TOMORROW: Start of the two-day Classic trials meeting at Goodwood.
➡️ FRIDAY: Three-day Curragh Guineas meeting under the Daqman microscope.
O’BRIEN PLOTS FOR THREE DERBYS
Any one of them would be good enough. That’s my form verdict on the Ballydoyle trio, after they shared out four of the top Epsom Derby trials.
The handicapper says that Anthony Van Dyck is clear top-rated, and he can’t put a figure on Sir Dragonet. That’s because, if he followed the figures for the next three home in the Chester Vase, he would come up with a collateral rating of between 116 and 120 for the winner.
That seems to have worried him (needs to see more) but, when all three colts behind him record roughly the expected figures in relation to each other, as they do, he doesn’t really have an excuse for ducking it.
With seemingly three chances and three Derbys – Epsom, Chantilly and The Curragh – Ballydoyle will be thinking about future breeding (ching ching!), and they will be looking at aptitude over 1m 2f and ability to travel (French Derby), maneouvrability and stamina for 1m 4f up the Epsom gradients, and a galloping style for the Irish version.
118 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (collateral rating 106) By Galileo out of a speedy Australian mare. Stable comments: A lovely attitude; travels beautifully; smooth performer.
Beaten in the National Stakes as a two-year-old by Quorto and in the Dewhurst by Too Darn Hot before flopping in the Breeders Cup.
Won the Lingfield Derby Trial with authority, despite soft ground, but no horse since High-Rise in 1988 has gone on from the Lingfield race to win the Derby.
115 BROOME (collateral rating 114) By Australia; dam’s sire produces top sprinters. Stable comments: He’s sleepy and lazy. Loves better ground and really gallops home.
Beaten by Madhmoon at Leopardstown as a two-year-old, before neck second in the Lagardere.
Has landed trials double in the Ballysax and the Derrinstown Derby Trial, both at Leopardstown, both over 1m 2f, comfortably in each case.
—- SIR DRAGONET (collateral rating 116) By Camelot; dam half-sister to Sea The Stars, second sister to Galileo. Stable comments: Such a big baby he wasn’t entered in the Derby.
Beautiful pedigree; comes alive on the track. Could be anything.
Unbeaten, including eight-lengths win in Chester Vase (good to soft) when surging from rear; drew clear, impressive.
GLEAM HAS UNIVERSAL APPEAL AT AYR
3.05 Ayr Rattling fast ground ay Ayr this afternoon which will suit the bang in form Universal Gleam who is out again quickly, and with a 5lb penalty, for his win at Hamilton last week.
He was allowed his own way in front that day and won a similar event with ease.
If anything though, although the same class 4 grade officially, this might be an easier task as most of his rivals appear out of form and one of the biggest dangers I had down, Mount Ararat, is now a non runner. The Dalgleish stable is also flying at present with 11 winners from their last 35 runners.
That leaves Trevithick as my danger. He has been running well, and become something of a standing dish at Newcastle. His last six races have all been there including one win over this trip.
He’s rated a stone better on the all-weather – so would be a major threat if translating that form to turf but the balance of evidence, so far, is he is not as effective on the grass.
4.05 Ayr (Rothesay Stakes) A Listed fillies and mares races is very much the highlight across seven meetings on Wednesday in the UK and Ireland.
The Roger Varian trained Shenanigans tops the official ratings and the market but is rather exposed and could be a favourite to take on. Her three career wins have come over shorter trips and although she ran a really good fourth in the Listed Snowdrop Stakes at Kempton last time out, she did tire in the closing stages and that was over a trip two furlongs shorter than todays.
There might be a little bit of value with Exhort who I’m backing win and place on BETDAQ.
The Richard Fahey trained runner struggled in a Newmarket handicap last time out but should be suited by the step up to this trip – she was a course and distance winner here last year and whilst versatile ground wise, does seem to have run some of her better races on quicker ground.
4.35 Ayr Another race over the 10 furlong trip and it could be another win on the day for the Dalgleish stable, this time with Maulesden May who won two races in quick succession over course and distance in 2017.
She ran well enough in fourth last time out at Musselburgh but should prove more effective back in trip here and is preferred to stable companion Corton who is also back in trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win bets staked to win 20 points, place bet 10 points)
BET 13.3pts win (nap) UNIVERSAL GLEAM (3,05 Ayr)
BET 3.7pts win and 5pts place (WIN 10) EXHORT (4.05 Ayr)
BET 7.4pts win MAULESDEN MAY (4.35 Ayr)
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