DAQMAN WINS TWICE IN ONE RACE: It was a break-even day for Daqman yesterday. One supernap won, one lost; one lay was successful, one wasn’t. His best result was a double whammy when he opposed the losing 10-11 favourite and backed the 9-4 winner at 4.1 on BETDAQ:
WON 9-4 CADERYN (lay Bob Mahler, 2nd 10-11)
WON 11-10 TARA BRIDGE (supernap)
HERE’S ANOTHER ANTE-POST JOKER: Daqman warned against backing Finian’s Oscar for Cheltenham before that one flopped at the weekend and was withdrawn. Now he issues a Red alert about the latest Gold Cup kite.
AYR SUPERNAP: DAQMAN has an Ayr SUPERNAP and is backing a winner without a penalty at Newcastle.
OSCAR FLOP: NOW RED WARNING
Not even a run for your money. When ‘Cheltenham Pricewise’ in the Racing Post tipped a chaser ante-post for the Stayer’s Hurdle, I warned you to steer well clear.
‘The switch back to hurdles and step up in trip can lead to festival glory,’ said the so-called value-wise man of Finian’s Oscar.
I couldn’t touch the beast at 33-1, certainly not the 16-1 he put up regarding ‘just about the best staying hurdler around last season.’ Doesn’t that ‘just about’ mean he’s a ‘nearly horse?’
Pricewise would make a good politician. Except that the Finian’s debate was always flawed, and he won’t be getting on to the Oscar podium. He will not run in the Stayers’ Hurdle, after pulling up in his trial.
Conversely, I dropped Bristol De Mai from my Fortune Cookies horses to follow to see if he could get back his form. He hasn’t. He’s out; though he may do better on a sounder surface.
He was beaten in the Cotswold Chase on Saturday (heavy) at Cheltenham by 159 and 157 rated Definitly Red and American, with Bristol ‘soon ridden’ and seemingly showing not much more than in his 26-lengths defeat by 169-rated Might Bite in the King George.
What happens next? The handicapper lofts Definitly Red to 167 (what? 2lb behind Might Bite?) and those Fleet Street boys go wild about Red.
How can you see Red for the Gold Cup; how can you bang up the rating when, on heavy ground, he’s beaten only a novice chaser (American) who had pulled up on his previous start with an out-of-sorts Bristol De Mai in third?
Last night Definitly Red offers remained around 18.0 behind 4.4 Might Bite in the BETDAQ ante-post orange for the Gold Cup. Clearly BETDAQ punters are not so easily fooled.
Hoofnote: I see that Tuesday’s Racing Post contained a What You Need To Know race-by-race stats guide to next weekend’s Dublin Festival. Betdaq Tips followers already had a similar guide on Sunday and Monday in the Daqman column.
UNCLE ALASTAIR A SUPERNAP
The meetings at Leicester and Down Royal both survived their morning inspections and unsurprisingly it is heavy at both venues and there is the possibility of some snow in Northern Ireland.
It’s also heavy ‘up norf’ at Ayr for their card which features a SUPERNAP for me.
2.05 Ayr Uncle Alastair looks worthy of SUPERNAP status here. He’s a progressive sort who relishes testing ground and I expect him to complete the hat-trick and in doing so give weight away to his rivals.
He’s only been beaten once in five starts and that was here at Ayr when he fell but has since won at Carlisle and here again so that hopefully was just a blip. Whilst he steps back in trip today that shouldn’t be too much of an issue as he won a bumper over this trip here.
It’s more about the paucity of opposition though that makes him the stand out on the card. Main rival in the market is Bulkov who has yet to even race on heavy ground and his only career win came on good to soft. His recent second to Black Art at Sedgefield took a form boost when the winner went in again but we are only talking modest form and he doesn’t look as progressive or versatile as the nap.
4.20 Ayr Backing bumper winners with a penalty is always a tough project but I make an exception with Sao Maxence who was a course and distance winner on debut when the ground was also heavy.
From that run he holds Bullion, Storm Nelson and Peak Of Beauty and should confirm form – even with the penalty which leaves Sporting Press as the danger for me.
Sporting Press will be delighted not to face any obstacles as he has failed to complete in three of his five point to point starts and was beaten when falling at the last at Tinahely last time when looking a tired horse. When he did get round he showed ability but might just need this against a rival who has all the ticks in the right boxes of course, going, distance, and recent outing.
6.45 Newcastle I get the chance to back a winner without a penalty here at around 7.8 on BETDAQ which is an opportunity I can’t turn down. Lucky Lodge is unpenalised for winning another apprentice race at Wolverhampton last time out and was also a course and distance winner here last year.
Trainer Antony Brittain has conjured up a couple of quick wins with stablemate Sooqaan and hopefully the magic can be repeated here.
I’ll play win and place – both bets to win 20 points on BETDAQ as I have to step in when the price looks too big.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except SUPERNAP):
SUPERNAP BET 20pts win UNCLE ALASTAIR (2.05 Ayr)
BET 12.1pts win SAO MAXINE (4.20 Ayr)
BET 2.9pts win and 12.0pts place (both to win 20pts) LUCKY LODGE (6.45 Newcastle)
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