DAQMAN PLAN FOR THE JUMPS SEASON: Varying the stakes with different classes and grades of racing and stepping up the action when you spot value. That’s the Daqman Plan for the jumps season from now until next March, as outlined below.
TODAY: HE DARES 7.0 BANGOR NAP: Business today concerns three quality feature races, at Bangor and Kempton, so stakes to win 20 or 30, with the nap offered at 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
TWO MORE WINNERS YESTERDAY: Daqman squeezed a slender profit yesterday at SP; better of course if you got on at early BETDAQ offers. His two winners were:
WON 100-30 Robinshill
WON 5-4 Theligny
BETTING SPIN: MAKE CLASS THE HUB
If it ain’t broke, don’t mend it. Or, if you yourself ain’t broke, don’t change your betting methods! So just a few tweeks to the successful Daqman Plan.
Class is the key. With class horses, strong support in the market is a good indicator, but a horse easy to back is not necessarily out of it.
However, in class 4 races and lower, confidence can be misplaced because horses don’t keep their form, yet those easy to back give you very little chance, unless your pin falls in the right place.
It makes sense to bet to class and quality. These are the horses stronger in constitution, faster of foot, more consistent and reliable.
DAILY BETS: Wherever possible, Daqman’s bets in any one day are calculated to break even, if there is just one winner.
That’s why each bet has a fixed-profit target but it may not be possible on a low-class day when bets are staked 1 to 9 for strength.
BANKERS: Bankers will now be in four distinct divisions of quality, based on the class of the race as follows:
NAP: Best bet of the day but does not necessarily warrant a banker. However, it may reinforce the banker of the day whatever its strength.
BANKER: The Banker has a maximum stake of 10 points and is the selected of short shots on a low-class day, when the stakes are usually between 1 and 9.
Such a banker is a standout nap. If there isn’t one, it says all you need to know about what a difficult day it is.
BRONZE BANKER: The Bronze Banker is to a 20-point stake, the selected of short shots on a better day when the target for each bet is a profit of 20 points per bet.
SILVER BANKER: This is a 30-point win banker on a horse in a major race, usually when the general rule is to bet to win 30.
GOLD BANKER: A rare 40-point banker, often in a championship event, usually when the general bets are all to win 30.
VALUE BETS: The search for value is daily, despite the accent being on feature races in the challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post.
CHALLENGE: A selection in any race in which Pricewise tips. Current score: 385-156. Target: 450 winners to be reached by Daqman in the 2016-17 NH season; 640 for the two tipsters overall.
TON-UP BET: The stakes are raised in a major race to win 100 points at the best BETDAQ morning offer.
BULL’S-EYE BETS: The stakes are raised in a major race to win 50 points.
POT-OF-GOLD: Where Daqman’s personal pricing-up suggests that a ton-up or bull’s-eye bet is offered far too big. It is backed to win 50 or 100 at the price he considers value.
So, if he thinks a 33-1 shot has a 10-1 chance in a ton-up bet, he still backs it 10 points win, so increasing the potential yield from 100 to 330 points.
TRIPLE BONUS: Daqman also refers to the pot-of-gold bet as the Triple Bonus bet when the following apply:
a) There is value betting in a BETDAQ market because of the small overround. This is normal.
b) There is value in an offer that’s too big, because it is overlooked.
c) Additional value can be obtained by staking to the price you want (see Pot Of Gold above) so that you get a massive bonus.
FORTUNE COOKIES: These horses to follow (see Tuesday’s column) are listed when they run. They may or may not be points bets on the day, and will be logged to level-stakes. The list can be updated to promote a ‘new kid on the block’ as in previous years (see Tuesday).
BOY SWERVES BIG RACE FOR THIS
1.50 Bangor (Anne Duchess Of Westminster Memorial Chase): In memory of Arkle’s owner, who famously would not run him in the Grand National.
He would probably have won it, but it might have sucked the life out of him. I love the race and don’t like to say that ‘it sucks,’ as the American abbreviation has it. But judge for yourself regarding winners this century: only four have taken a prize since.
Never raced again: Neptune Collonges
Never placed again: Amberleigh House, Auroras Encore, Red Marauder, Montys Pass, Numbersixvalverde
Never won again under Rules: Ballabriggs, Comply Or Die, Don’t Push It, Hedgehunter, Mon Mome, Silver Birch.
Poor form after: Bindaree (1-16), Pineau De Re (1-13), Papillon (1-11), Many Clouds (1-5), Rule The World (0-1). Can ‘World’ be an exception to the rule?
Alan King has won today’s memorial twice, and Sego Success is quite capable in these conditions, with Kingy thereabouts in almost every race right now: he’s had 26 in the first four in a fortnight and his current figures are 142331313.
His other runner, Ziga Boy, has scored at a higher level but has only 5lb more than when taking the Great Yorkshire in January. He swerves Saturday’s big race at Cheltenham for this, and looks the pick on value at 11.0 in the BETDAQ orange but we need a stable saver on Sego (10.0).
3.00 Bangor This is a tough class-2 hurdle but punters think it’s easy: they have Messire Des Obeaux not much better than evens, as I write, with Rene’s Girl 7.0 and Foxcub 9.4.
‘Messire’ ran well, unplaced in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham; a big, rangy horse who is destined for chasing, and it’s a question of whether he will have the speed or the experience – he’s only four – for this.
Rene’s Girl dead-heats with ‘Messire’ at the weights and, while the favourite has never won a race, Dan Skelton’s mare scored back to back last year at this time, though she, too, was unable to step up in grade, for the Mares’ Final at Newbury.
Foxcub has won this race two years running and could bounce back. But I think Rene’s Girl has the clout and is the value.
7.25 Kempton (London Middle Distance Final) James Fanshawe, the leading handler at Kempton, has long planned this race for Sam Missile, CD winner in June. Should be ok in gate eight and 5.1 in the BETDAQ orange.
Sixties Groove, a Kempton winner in July, was thumped 7lb by the handicapper though he could finish only second in a class 3 at Goodwood, albeit he was unlucky at today’s level on the last day, not getting a clear run at Newmarket, so maybe the ratings revision was right. However, he’s drawn 11, which pushes him quite wide.
Roger Charlton is finishing the season with a flourish and Rock Steady’s form is just that, but success has come at a lower level.
Dutch Uncle was a 41.0 offer when this race was abandoned at the meeting with the tragic accident last Monday. Better than the bare form, back from a holiday, and 13.0 this morning.
DAQMAN’S TIPS (staked as stated; feature races only)
BET (to win 30 points): 3pts win and place ZIGA BOY, and (to win 20) 2.25pts win SEGO SUCCESS (1.50 Bangor)
BET (to win 20) 3.3pts win (nap) RENE’S GIRL (3.00 Bangor)
BET (to win 20) 4pts win SAM MISSILE, and 1.6pts win DUTCH UNCLE (7.25 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Ziga Boy (1.50 Bangor), with Messire Des Obeaux and Rene’s Girl (3.00 Bangor) and with Sam Missile (7.25 Kempton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
