THE CHAMPION ELECT: Daqman has always been on the side of one horse as three-year-old of the season. Today he explains his reasoning in this preview to Saturday’s Champions Day.
STOUTE BET AT BATH: Daqman’s nap today is one of those Sir Michael Stoute improvers, who seems gifted a prize at Bath under the conditions of the race.
ALMANZOR CHAMPION OF CHAMPIONS DAY
John Gosden (pictured) has no doubt. And I’m standing by my consistent headlines trumpeting Almanzor the best of the 2016 Classic crop.
I think he’ll win the Champion Stakes so convincingly on Saturday that what I said before the Arc – he should have run at Chantilly – will be echoed in the Press, post Ascot.
Gosden said yesterday: ‘Almanzor’s performance in the Irish Champion Stakes was scintillating, and he’s the best we’ve seen this year.’
The colt’s trainer, Jean-Claude Rouget, today reveals the rigidity of his race planning in a Racing Post article. You could never say that of Aidan O’Brien, and Gosden is on record time and again, when asked what of the future: ‘The race we’ve just won; that was the plan.’
It echoes the famous reply of another master trainer, Bernard Van Cutsem, when asked in the unsaddling enclosure: What’s the plan for this horse. Van Cutsem replied drily: That was the plan!
Rouget decided that Almanzor was a 10-furlong horse, unwisely marking the Arc card for La Cressoniere and ending up at Chantilly without a runner. With their Derby and Oaks now at 1m 2f, the French seem obsessed with that trip.
Even a 10-furlong horse could have won this year’s Epsom Derby: just look at the order-in with hindsight, with their recent results on the left (and Derby placing in parentheses)
100 Harzand (winner) got a penalty kick in the Irish Derby but then flopped behind Almanzour in the Irish Champion Stakes and well behind Found in the Arc
42 US Army Ranger (second) beaten in two Group 3s.
1U Idaho (third) won a small-field Great Voltigeur (Group 2)
20 Wings Of Desire (fourth) beaten in the King George and the York International
004 Humphrey Bogart (fifth) has failed to score, despite dropping to Group 3
42 Red Verdon (sixth) was beaten again by Harzand at The Curragh.
Also ran: 1 Algometer (won a Group 3); 3 Cloth Of Stars (third Saint-cloud Grand Prix); 0 Massaat (last of seven); 3 Across The Stars (third to Idaho at York); 13 Deauville (switched to America); 12 Ulysees (won a Group 3); 0 Biodynamic (beaten in a handicap); 0 Port Douglas (beaten again by Harzand at The Curragh), 034 Shogun (beaten again by Harzand and Ulysees); 0303 Moonlight Magic (sixth to Almanzor in the Irish Champion Stakes).
John Gosden has already brought back from the dead his sprinter Shalaa one year on from a five-timer to score at Ascot last month.
Now he hopes Shalaa can follow on Muhaarar’s win for the three-year-olds last year in the Champion Sprint.
Acts on any going, whereas the Limato camp has a worrying 48 hours today and tomorrow before they see how much rain falls on Friday.
A bigger resurrection by Gosden would be for Jack Hobbs to beat Almanzor with the 2015 Derby runner-up having had only one run in a year, pulled up in the Jockey Club Stakes in April.
Outside the big names, there is a strong word for Roger Charlton’s Yuften in the Balmoral Handicap (4.25), in which five-year-olds such as he have a 100% record. Rain would dampen this step up from 7f to a mile.
Jim Crowley rides for his old mentor, Amanda Perrett, in this one on Zhui Feng. A leader or a van runner over further, he should enjoy this drop back to 1m.
A shorter trip should also suit Crowley’s opening mount, Nearly Caught (1.25), in the Long Distance Championship.
Rain, but not too much, would set him up over this 2m after his back-to-back successes in France – Chantilly and Deauville – following third in the Northumberland Plate.
DUBKA LOOKS DESTINED FOR BLACK TYPE
3.40 Bath While handicap concessions are being tightened against three-year-olds, the second-season fillies, hungry for black type, still get a massive 9lb in this Listed.
Dubka has climbed the rungs of the handicaps – up 20lb since July – under Sir Michael Stoute’s stewardship, and may not have finished winning yet, with this step up in trip advocated by William Buick when he won on her at Newmarket.
Tiptree four times, Novalina and Zubeida once, have already failed in black-type bids, and Moorside’s rating in handicaps is static.
So another progressive filly, Purple Magic looks like the main threat to Dubka: up 23lb for a handicaps hat-trick, swerved the Park Hill (race came too soon).
Dubka was hot at 3.05 this morning, with Purple Magic 6.4 and better than evens a place.
3.50 Nottingham After four two-year-old races on the trot at Colwick Park this afternoon (Crowned Eagle looks the good thing in the first), we now have to divine four big-field handicaps.
This class 3 ought to be within the scope of reasoned argument (famous last words) and, again, the three-year-olds, with five out of eight, could dominate, particularly when the shortest priced older horse is top weight off 9st 10lb.
At six years of age, Jim Crowley’s mount, Great Hall, is unlikely to put back-to-back wins together as he did way back in 2013, when Trump was just a joker not a dangerous trump card.
Michele Strogoff, who sounds like a Russian stew (no more politics today, please) showed up well at Newmarket but today’s new trip may not suit this pace runner.
More likely to benefit from the step back up in distance is Top Beak, who is stronger now than when racing at 1m 2f earlier on.
Rainbow Rebel has proved versatile for trip and ground but the handicapper may have caught up with him after four in a row. He thinks he has done so, since he leaves him on the same mark as for his Pontefract defeat.
Navajho War Dance was favourite to beat Great Hall at Epsom last month but got into a duel up front. Better is expected.
I could back two here, with Rainbow Rebel 4.8 and Top Beak 6.6 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
5.40 Wetherby I’m going helter-Skelton for a jumps winner! Return Flight doesn’t appear to have a lot to beat; Skelton has a 42% strike rate with hurdlers here and got Return Flight off the mark straight away after he’d moved stables.
Return Flight came from Micky Hammond, who trains Russian Royale in this race, so should know the form. But Micky’s just had 13 consecutive losers beaten a total of some 240 lengths!
6.55 Kempton With 16 winners already – four in Group races – Frankel justifies having a filly named Ambrosia, food or fruit of the gods, but Roger Varian’s current form with his juveniles reveals a poor strike-rate, hardly fruitful: 0100400000000001200032
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 9pts win (nap) DUBKA, and 2pts win (stake saver) PURPLE MAGIC (3.40 Bath)
BET 5pts win RAINBOW REBEL and 3.5pts win TOP BEAK (3.50 NottinghaM)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble CROWNED EAGLED (1.40 Nottingham), DUBKA (3.40 Bath) and RETURN FLIGHT (5.40 Wetherby)
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