TODAY: HALFWAY HOUSE YARDS: Which stables are wearing the smiles and which should you follow in the second half of the season?
TOMORROW: KING GEORGE ABC: Can Golden Horn be beaten? Which horse ticks most boxes? Daqman has the answers. And he has more daily analysis.
GOLDEN SEASON FOR GOSDEN AND APPLEBY
After the silver the golden year! John Gosden, who has just celebrated 25 seasons in Newmarket, has capped the silver anniversary with a golden year.
Son of the famous handicap king ’Towser’ Gosden, John’s Classic rewards were thinly spread, apart from Benny The Dip (1997 Derby), but he’s poured it on in the last few seasons.
Gosden has legendary names to show for his 21st-century spurt into the big time: Kingman, Raven’s Pass, Taghrooda and the latest Clarehaven warriors, Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs.
Now victory in the King George on Saturday for Golden Horn (rated 130) would put the colt in the same league as Mill Reef (trained Ian Balding, Geoff Lewis, rated 136), Nashwan (Dick Hern, Willie Carson, rated 135) and Tulyar (Marcus Marsh, C Smirke, rated 134).
Gosden’s now one Epsom Derby behind his great Newmarket mentor, Sir Noel Murless, but 11 Classics short of his total of 19, and – never say never – is still dwarfed by the incredible haul of his first stable: he was earlier assistant to Vincent O’Brien, who saddled 43 Classic winners (six in the Epsom Derby).
Most important for punters is Gosden’s 24% strike rate. That’s something to go to war with, though well short of Charlie Appleby’s 28%. Appleby already has 35 winners more than his personal best scored in the whole of last season.
Also ahead of the game at this halfway stage are Charles Hills, David O’Meara, Ed Dunlop, and – just now flying – Roger Varian.
Of the usual suspects, Luca Cumani (the autumn king) and Mark Johnston (August is his wicked month) can be expected to top up in the second half of the season.
But Marco Botti and William Haggas are both below par, and I can’t bring to mind the material in either yard which could put them back among the birdies in the second half of the season, certainly nowhere near the eagles like John Gosden.
Gosden’s ace season would be trumped by victory for Golden Horn in the King George on Saturday. He’s odds on but the race is never over until the fat lady sings and the layers pay out.
Down a generation, Gosden, plus Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett and Jeremy Noseda can be followed with two-year-olds having their second runs, though be warned that two races without winning set up a juvenile for three runs and into a handicap.
Using this three-and-in system, skilful trainers can engineer a good midway rating – and therefore weight placing – in a nursery (two-year-old handicap), where Tim Easterby’s and Team Hannon are the stables to follow. The nursery season is July to October.
The Hannons will now be aiming their toughest two-year-old horses at the big Sales races, among their sires Canford Cliffs, such a great miler for the stable.
Canford Cliffs (37% winners to runners), Dream Ahead and Zoffany are first-season sires who have been rewriting the record books in the first half of the season.
But currently the best stallion to follow overall is Sea The Stars (38%), closely shadowed by Cape Cross (leader on prizemoney won) and Dubawi. Galileo remains top numerically.
If only we could eavesdrop on the offices of the top stables though, without even peeping in the window, we already know that Dermot Weld in Ireland will be gearing up for Galway at the end of this month; and Mark Johnston will be making his own map of Goodwood in August. Everything changes and everything’s the same..
HAVE YOURSELF A CHEEKY FLUTTER AT BATH..
4.00 Catterick The consistent Captain Dunne drops in grade after three runs in class 2 and 3, now back to the ‘4’ level which brought him back-to-back wins in May. Has the draw and still has the pace.
4.30 Catterick Three-year-olds are three out of four in this and David O’Meara’s second-season filly Rose Acclaim has a handy draw for this drop back in trip. You could exchange between 8.8 and 11.5 as offers fluctuated this morning.
5.10 Bath Flutterbee was transformed by cheekpieces on the last day and wouldn’t have to make any further progress (though should do so after only five starts) to beat this field.
The stables of Baugh, Brotherton, Brisbourne and Turner are out of form and the seven horses below Flutterbee on the card are out of the handicap.
‘BIG’ DRAMA LOOKS ANOTHER ONE FOR HUGHES
8.15 Sandown The Alan King mare Mystery Drama was beaten only a couple of lengths last time she was seen on turf at Goodwood over 2m in June.
She was there with the leaders at today’s trip and Richard Hughes is back to renew the Goodwood connection in a grade lower race off a sightly lower weight mark. Looked big this morning at 6.4.
DAQMAN TIPS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10pts win would be a banker)
BET 6pts win CAPTAIN DUNNE (4.00 Catterick)
BET 2pts win ROSE ACCLAIM (4.30 Catterick)
BET 7pts win (nap) FLUTTERBEE (5.10 Bath)
BET 4pts win MYSTERY DRAMA (8.15 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 0.5pts win yankee the four above
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