EASY AS ABC: OAKS CHECK TODAY How do the Oaks runners line up with the stats? Do they have the right rating and experience? Are they with the right stable? Here’s Daqman’s ABC check on their qualifications.
EASY AS ABC: DERBY TOMORROW It’s a Classic double! After the Oaks ABC today, Daqman does a similar check on the Derby runners tomorrow. How do the colts’ stats and facts differ from the fillies?
OAKS ABC: O’BRIEN HAS MAGIC WAND
A Ran in the last five weeks (100%)
B Rated 99 to 120 (80%)
C Winner already at 1m 2f or more (78%)
D Placed in first two on the last day (80%)
E Winner trained Gosden, O’Brien or Beckett (70%)
F Stalls 3 to 9 (78%) not yet drawn
X Stable in form
ABCDEX Bye Bye Baby
Galileo filly out of an Oaks runner-up closely related to Dylan Thomas, a family which improved for a trip. An uncomplicated sort, who would relish cut in the ground.
ABCDEX Magic Wand
Galileo sister to an Irish Oaks winner. A big filly who improved to land the Cheshire Oaks but her April conqueror Jaega was well beaten by Bye Bye Baby at the Curragh.
ABCD Perfect Clarity
By Nathaniel, the sire who produced Enable to win ‘everything’ last year, she landed the Lingfield Oaks Trial off a slow pace, when her stamina kicked in and propelled her clear in the final furlong.
ABDEX Forever Together
Another Ballydoyle filly and the next one in this list is his as well! By Galileo but related to milers. However, looked unlucky behind Magic Wand in the Cheshire Oaks.
ABEX I Can Fly
Third to Who’s Steph in one of the Leopardstown Guineas trials on heavy. Firm ground, well backed, when she was down the field in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas.
AB Wild Illusion
Godolphin’s early attack has fizzled out, and Guineas-placed Masar is left as their best, though this filly should have a say in this, as winner of the Grand Criterium, and fourth in the 1,000 Guineas.
ACDX Give And Take
Well backed for this after steady climb from class-4 novice last autumn to Group-3 Musidora success at York. The jury’s out on whether she’ll stay.
ACEX Flattering
Likely pacemaker, as in the Lingfield Oaks Trial when this daughter of Galileo faded behind Perfect Clarity in a slow-run race.
A Ejtyah
Interesting first foal by Frankel of a mare related to a Vermeille winner. Needed the experience (led two out) when third in the Musidora.
BUBBLING OVER FOR EFFERVESCENCE
4.30 Beverley Effervescence can make it third time lucky in this company. She hasn’t been beaten far in her two starts to date Lingfield 2nd (one mile) and Catterick third (7f).
Interesting to she was a non runner at Brighton last night and if back in action here should prove too strong for Elerfaan who was a 50/1 runner-up at Wetherby on debut to Air Raid on soft ground.
Busby also comes into the reckoning after improving from his Newmarket debut to finish third at Wetherby last time out. He was doing his best work near the finish and may need a longer trip to show his best form.
5.15 Cartmel It’s been a busy few days at the idiosyncratic Lake District venue and the best bet on Wednesday’s card looks to come in the closing handicap hurdle for conditional riders at 5.15pm.
Last year’s winner Lough Kent is back for more under regular pilot Charlotte Jones and the combination could well run a big race at likely double figure odds but he ran such a shocker at Ayr last time out when a tailed off last of 13 finishers that it’s a big leap of faith to think he can bounce back.
Lough Kent is one of five runners in the race for local trainer Jimmy Moffatt and the pick might well be Think Ahead who has relatively few miles on the clock and won his maiden hurdle here at Cartmel last July.
He was twice a winner on the flat when trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and certainly won’t be inconvenienced by the faster ground. The experienced Callum Bewley riding is a positive.
8.40 Ripon This is a course on which front runners have a huge advantage. And that’s over all distances including this marathon two mile trip.
As such, it’s hard to get away from the chances of Stormin Tom who was only collared in the closing strides over course and distance last time out.
‘Stormin’ made all to win this race in 2016 and although the handicapper has put him up 2lb for his recent defeat he should again prove hard to catch.
We’ll get a decent price too as the market revolves around Northwest Frontier who bolted home at Nottingham eight days ago and runs under the statutory 6lb penalty.
He looks ahead of the handicapper but the question will be whether the hold up tactics can be effective over this track and hopefully the bird will have already flown.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 10.0pts win (nap) EFFERVESCENCE (4.30 Beverley)
BET 3.8pts win THINK AHEAD (5.15 Cartmel)
BET 6.0pts win STORMIN TOM (8.40 Ripon)
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