SEVEN MORE WINS FOR THE TON-UP: Daqman goes on the attack against Pricewise today, the first day of the York Ebor meeting, in the 2.30, 3.05 and 3.40 races, with a 93-33 lead, needing seven more winning bets to hit the 100.
BULL’S-EYE BID TO BOOST 200: He gambles big against the favourites Australia and Kingston Hill because of the huge offers available on BETDAQ, but is careful to save on them to preserve the 200 points profit in the Bull’s Eye Bets wallet. His standings are:
* CHALLENGE: Daqman 93, Pricewise 33
* VALUE: Bull’s-Eye Bets +200 points
* MAXIMUM: Banker bets + 78.73 points
HARTNELL HILL THREAT ON LEGER TRAIL
1.55 York Four three-year-olds have tried this race in its five years and all failed to reach the frame. Only one of the five winners came from the bottom half of the handicap, and four years out of five stalls 11-18 have been successful.
York Glory would be an aptly-named winner but, off his higher mark. has yet to match his Wokingham win of last year. Visors replace blinkers and might kick start him.
Like dual York winner Mass Rally, he is a couple of pounds high but appreciates the top of the ground, whereas Mass Rally could do with the forecast shower or two.
Caspian Prince would be more at home down the Epsom hill. Blaine used to love York and was back to form in July. Goldream has 11lb more than when second last year. Free Zone is well in now but hard to win with and is another who needs a drop of rain.
Kevin Ryan, who trains York Glory, also saddles Blaine and last year’s winner, Bogart. All very tricky but I will choose from those most lightly raced this season and assume the others are exposed.
From the high stalls, that narrows it down to Mass Rally, York Glory, and Free Zone at 13.5, 16.0 and 33.0 respectively on BETDAQ as I write.
2.30 York (Acomb Stakes) Brian Meehan has won this twice since 2007 and his Growl is highly regarded and could be one of the outsiders with place chances here against Jamaica.
Jamaica is hard to oppose. He stayed on late behind the same stable’s Group 3 winner Gleneagles on the debut, then demolished a fair looking field at the Galway Festival, getting plaudits from Joseph O’Brien (‘one of our better ones’).
Though Basateen won by eight lengths at Doncaster, those behind were nothing special and he has to improve again, but he does represent one of the strongest two-year-old teams in Europe.
Subsequent results from the Prince Gagarin race at Newmarket have also been low key. Salateen got some tribute from Al Bandar yesterday.
But Jamaica and Basateen look strongest for a race which last year produced The Grey Gatsby (second). With that exception, nothing from it recently has taken high rank in the Classic generation, despite a 2009 runner-up later on in the Racing Post Trophy.
3.05 York (Great Voltigeur) Sir Michael Stoute (Snow Sky) is currently two from two in this over the last three seasons and overall has won it seven times.
Aidan O’Brien (Indian Maharaja) used to be his main rival (won it in 2001 and 2003) but John Gosden (Marzocco) has come to the fore in recent years with three successful since 2007.
As a St Leger trial, it has produced the winners at Doncaster this century in 2001 (Milan), 2004 (Rule Of Law) and 2007 (Lucarno).
The 2014 St Leger market leaders include Hartnell, Snow Sky and Granddukeoftuscany, who do battle here against the likely favourite, Kingston Hill.
Firm ground and the shorter trip found out Kingston Hill in the Eclipse, behind Mukhadram. But he’s a dual harbinger here for the International, since he went clear with Australia up the hill in a memorable Epsom Derby.
This is Kingston Hill’s moment. If he fails to take it, there may be a marked easing of Australia’s odds in the International, particularly in the light of fitness worries about the Derby hero.
One recent feature of the season has been the rise and rise of Hartnell, up 11lb since runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, and – as a Mark Johnston 2m Queens Vase winner – likely to bolt round the final turn and play catch-me.
In fact, Snow Sky, who won that Derby Trial, has improved more, 14lb according to the handicapper, including his recent Gordon Stakes win at Glorious Goodwood.
But we do have a more recent form line: Hartnell went right away from Windshear at Newmarket in July, whereas Windshear almost cracked a wavering Snow Sky (a short head in it) at Goodwood.
Postponed now looks ready to join in a Group contest and Kingston Hill will be suited by the strong pace but Hartnell is a nice price at offers around 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning to continue his progress after a break.
And Mark Johnston is convinced that, whatever happens today, you will be counting your money at Doncaster, where ‘the St Leger is the perfect race for him.’
GREY THE ONE TO SET AUSTRALIA TARGET
3.40 York (International) Five favourites out of seven have won and Australia will be red hot today to confirm his Epsom Derby authority over Arod (fourth) and Kingfisher (10th).
Through Arod, he should extend that authority to The Grey Gatsby, who beat Arod less than a length in the Dante before winning the French Derby.
But today is the French Derby distance and this is a first visit to York for Australia whereas, as well as the Dante one-two from his own generation, he faces two older horses with York power form, Mukhadram, who won a Group 2 here, and Telescope who took today’s Voltigeur last season.
He has to be a Sea The Stars (last one to do the Derby-International double) if he is to win this. This morning’s BETDAQ offers in which Australia is odds on and Telescope and Mukhadram easy to back suggest that he can do.
But there is a massive price among the other offers: 16.0 about The Grey Gatsby. I look at the form and the dshape of the race this way:
Telescope and Mukhadram have already been nailed very easily by the Classic generation, trounced by the filly Taghrooda. She may be exceptional but, until we know for certain that she is, she provides a huge boost for the three-year-old colts.
Albeit only a narrow winner over Arod in the Dante, I thought that The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby win was truly dramatic in a very, very fast time.
The form has been overlooked because winner and second (Shamkiyr) have both been stuck in the atrocious conditions on French tracks since.
Like Hartnell in the race before this, I can see The Grey Gatsby ‘going for it’ in the straight – and requiring a fully extended Australia to haul him back him. I don’t know which way it will go, but I do know which way the BETDAQ offers steer me.
4.20 York Winners of this are not to be followed afterwards, suggesting it is a bit of side-show for stayers who have a very limited future.
The last five winners have had a poor subsequent strike-rate of less than 9% (8-90). Two were gambled on for the Cesarewitch; both finishing well in rear. Lightly-raced Bantam could emerge today, steppe dup to this trip.
4.55 York The 9st barrier is hard to breach (only two out of 10 have won with more than 8st 13lb) and I expect the opening handicap to confirm that we need a stall number in the high half of the draw.
Roossey has had a nice rest since learning the ropes and, since then, trainer of the year (if only John Gosden would also have a rest!) William Haggas has entered the Acclamation colt in the Middle Park.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 2.4pts win MASS RALLY, 2pts win YORK GLORY and 1pt win and place FREE ZONE (1.55 York)
BET 15pts win (nap) JAMAICA and 6.8pts win (stakes saver) BASATEEN (2.30 York)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 6pts win HARTNELL and 4pts win (stakes saver) KINGSTON HILL (3.05 York)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 3.3pts win and place THE GREY GATSBY and 10pts win (stakes saver) AUSTRALIA (3.40 York)
BET (to win 20): 3pts win BANTAM (4.20 York)
BET (to win 20): 3.2pts win ROOSSEY (4.55 York)
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