BETTER BETDAQ BETTORS SEARCH FOR IMPROVERS: It’s Day 2 as Daqman puts the racing language of form assessment under the spotlight. What winner-finding methods are indicated? What potential losers does Joe Public think are winners and why? How do you check that a horse is an improver? Make improvers the mainstay of good betting.
Tomorrow: Staking plan and Fortune Cookies
HIDDEN HORSES AT BRIGHTON STAND OUT A MILE: Daqman takes the train to Brighton for the Mile and finds two ‘hidden horses’, one which has slid down the handicap, the other lightly raced this season – both with trainers in form – but he’ll be watching the BETDAQ markets on his mobile phone for value on the cards at Sligo and Yarmouth.
READING BETWEEN THE LINES OF FORM
Collateral form In creating your MFR, a ‘future’ rating for the race in question, collateral or connected form might help.
Check races in which one or more horses taking part in your race have run against each other, against the same opponents, or connect with others which have form which links up.
That way you might find a supporting thread or a weakness in the handicapping. But remember not to fall into the old traps. Example:
It’s what you beat not what beats you. One of the biggest form fallacies is to back something because it was placed behind ‘a good horse’.
Ask the question, what did that placed horse beat? What has happened to those behind him? Have they run badly since or have they franked the form? Only if two horses come well away from the field is the one-two special.
Beat nothing well If a winner finished clear but those behind had done nothing, nor have done since, we must be wary. He beat nothing well but now faces a serious test. He must improve dramatically.
Winner last time out Another fallacy is to back winners last time out in low-class races. Quality winners may keep their form but those in lesser grades rarely have the constitution to stay at peak, unless ‘winner trained Prescott’ (see yesterday).
You’ll even see me write about ‘once a year horses’, who have to be prepared for a one-off at the right weight, at the right time, in handicaps.
‘Once a year horses’ can be first-timers in conditions races. Example: a ‘nearly horse’ may win early in the season because nothing else is fit!
Benchmark Some horses which regularly place hold their rating well. Such horses are benchmarks for assessing collateral form you can trust when creating your MFR.
Form franked If a horse or horses behind the winner have come out and scored since, we say that the form of that winner has been franked.
Race of winners Confidence in the form may also apply when the horse last ran, whether placed or not, in a race containing several previous winners.
Class A horse moving up and down the grades or from Pattern races (Group and Listed) down to handicaps may make use of his class: a horse back at his right trip dropped in class is likely to be good value. To rise in class, he needs to be an ‘improver’ (see below).
Hidden horses Lightly raced, dropped in grade, waited for an opportunity. So many examples of ‘hidden horses’, those disguised in the form book or forgotten about (see 4.00 Brighton today).
Improvers Improvers are your mainstay in betting because not recognised by everyone. Once your sums seem to add up in your MFR to the magic word ‘improver,’ double check collateral form (see above) and create a future rating for every other runner as a further check.
If you don’t have time for that, look for progress, or regress, in each horse via the handicapper’s OR (see yesterday). If your improver is running against horses static in the OR or going backwards, you will be tempted to double your stake! More about that next week.
Bridesmaid Though he may be a ‘benchmark’ (see above), beware of the bridesmaid as a bet. He or she keeps on being placed without winning, whatever the company they’re in.
It could be the case that, mentally, they don’t want to win or don’t have the finish to win. They’re not going to catch the bouquet.
Nearly Horse Some higher-level ‘bridesmaids’ cannot escape from a class trap of their own making. They carry on finishing close up in conditions races without winning but, if moved to handicaps, would carry a prohibitive weight.
Stats Past results will help you decide the type of animal that wins a particular race, will locate the draw bias if any, and tell you which stable likes to target the event.
CD-WINNER DIVINER LOOKS READY NOW
4.00 Brighton (Brighton Mile Challenge Trophy) How many times did I catch the ‘rattler’ from London to stand on that blustery hill with sea salt in the air and thoughts of Pinkie and the gang?
Where to put the teddy bear you’d won on the rifle range in the morning on the pier? Winning it was easy. You spent the first slug testing the bias in the gun barrel, then corrected your angle and obliterated the bull’s eye with the second pellet.
Young horses (aged three and four) do best in this Brighton Mile, and we’ve just had the exception that proves the rule when 11-year-old Pastoral Player scored for Hughie Morrison last year.
But Tony Carroll could care less about the stats: he runs four, all older horses, aged five (two) and nine (two). All bar one are CD winners here at Brighton.
De Vegas Kid landed a sequence of three at this time last year, starting off on an OR of 51, but landed a Brighton double (on 66) in the autumn, and has scored off 72 (May) and 75 (June) this term.
Did you catch him along the way as an improver (he climbed the grades, winning in class 6, class 5 and class 4)? And has he now finished his run, rated 79?
Claiming off him (Darragh Keenan 5lb) suggests that the OR is a worry, and stablemate Poetic Force also has it to do off 10 stone.
Though he was a CD winner in the spring of last year, Pour La Victoire landed a hat-trick here last summer but over 6f. Is not done with yet and has Cieren Fallon claiming 5lb.
Gary Moore trained the winner two years ago but Duchess Of Avon has never won this high in the ratings. In fact, she’s scored only once: that was over the Brighton CD off 58 in class 6, and there’s no evidence that she has the guts to win a class 4 off 62.
Majestic Mac has won only once and his rating has flattened out – always 76, 77 or 78 – with no sign of improvement.
Water Diviner is fresher than most for this second half of the season and the stable has hit a seam. His CD-winning rider, Tom Marquand is recalled for the colt’s third race of the year.
Medieval was an overnight punt. Hasn’t won since September 2017 but has dropped 15lb in the ratings and Paul Cole, enjoying a revival, had a notable cross-Channel double on Friday at Deauville and Goodwood.
Roller is also without a win since 2017 and Mick Easterby’s ‘getting ride suggests he will struggle to score again.
They think quite highly of Forseti. He’s been favourite for two of his three wins, so the market may help you make up your mind whether to back him later in the day.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s pair, Key Player and Hedging, are both course winners but both seem better over 7f.
Verdict I can’t resist the stables in form, with two hidden horses in one race: Medieval (7.4 offers) for Paul Cole and Water Diviner (8.4) for Richard Hannon after his fantastic five-timer at Newbury yesterday. He could start off the day with a win for Airbrush in a race where the opposition look nondescript.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Hannon has 9 runners today altogether, but just the one probable tomorrow, No Show (2.30 Haydock).
ECHO OF LAST YEAR’S CONNACHT OAKS
4.35 Sligo (Connacht Oaks) Jessica Harrington has pointed last year’s winner, Echo Park, at a repeat and the mare is preferred to morning-favourite Kastasa, with Kastasa’s trainer, Dermot Weld, missing strike badly with his runners last week, despite saddling most of them on his old favourite hunting ground, Galway, for seven places and only one win.
Latoyah Of North ran a cracker at Galway, third to Mr Adjudicator in the Guinness Handicap, but she has won only a maiden in 16 starts. The front pair make Echo Park’s 5.8 offers look big.
6.15 Yarmouth If you delete extreme distances (beyond 2m 2f) from the form of Dr Richard Newland’s seven runners since the end of July, you get returns of 13212. He has just the one today.
Mauricio (BETDAQ 8.6) is a hidden horse on the Flat, not seen for more than two years but has been thereabouts over hurdles and fences this year. They want to give him his head today and win this as a confidence booster.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Brighton (win 10)
BET 7.8pts win AIRBRUSH
4.00 Brighton (win 20)
BET 3pts win MEDIEVAL
BET 2.75pts win WATER DIVINER
4.35 Sligo (win 30)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) ECHO PARK
6.15 Yarmouth (win 20, win 10)
BET 2.6pts w/p MAURICIO
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