WHO IS THE BEST THREE-YEAR-OLD? ANSWER ON SATURDAY: With Saturday’s Irish Derby in mind, this is how Daqman rates the collateral form of the three-year-old colts so far, though results concerning French Derby runner-up Waldgeist do leave him with more questions than he set out to answer!
DAQMAN RECOVERY: caught a dose of seconditis with his first two selections yesterday but recovered most of those losses when the final selection Maksab won well at Leicester at 2/1.
CARLISLE BELL: Forget the favourites in this race. DAQMAN has one at a BETDAQ 20.0 to hopefully set the bells chiming.
HOW DAQMAN RATES CLASSIC COLTS
Where eagles dare! Collateral form casts a question-mark over Saturday’s Irish Derby, if Waldgeist takes his chance against Wings Of Eagles.
It’s one of the many questions left in the air about this year’s Classic crop of colts, some of which will be settled at The Curragh.
Did 40-1 shot Wings of Eagles fluke it when he won the Epsom Derby? Can Cracksman reverse the placings? On what level is the French Derby this year?
The leading market trio we are likely to encounter from my top rankings are Wings Of Eagles, Cracksman and Waldgeist.
I’ve rated the best we’ve seen over around 1m 4f.. not the milers or mile-and-a-quarter horses; not the fillies; they might even be the strongest bunch. We’ll look at them all together in previewing the Eclipse and King George later on. Watch this space!
115 WINGS OF EAGLES Almost every year before the Derby, they say it’s the best yet. If an outsider wins, they say it’s a poor year after all. Then the form is franked and the final cliché comes out: it’s never a bad Derby.
Wings Of Eagles tried twice to get a run at Epsom but, when he came flying by Cliffs Of Moher, he looked as fresh as if he could go round again.
113 CLIFFS OF MOHER He ‘won’ his Derby against the favourite Cracksman, only to be mugged by Wings of Eagles. Now we’ll have another set of Press clichés.
If he misses the Irish Derby to drop back in trip, then Wings Of Eagles beat a non-stayer. If he swerves The Curragh and wins the Eclipse, they’ll say he’s franked the form of the Epsom Derby. Funny old game, isn’t it!
113 CRACKSMAN Didn’t cope well with the Epsom gradients and lost a battle with Cliffs Of Moher, only for the pair of them to be swamped on the line by Eagles’ swoop.
112 EMINENT I think we’ll be assessing the Derby fourth for an Eclipse ding-dong with the likes of Barney Roy, Cliffs Of Moher and Ulysses.
111 BENBATL You could say that the Derby has been boosted by the fifth horse home, Benbatl, but his Ascot success last week was a Group-3 so only what we might expect.
111 PERMIAN Down the field at Epsom, as another who didn’t enjoy the switchbacks and up-and-down track. But again his Group-2 King Edward V11 win last week was only what might be expected and, in fact, the unlucky runner-up Khalidi was stepping up on Derby form.
111 WALDGEIST Rating the three-year-olds is a hard game, even with results before you and, if you involve last year’s two-year-old form, you can get in a complex muddle.
You simply have to assume – until proved otherwise – that last year’s juveniles are overtaken by the progressive three-year-olds of this Spring and summer.
On Waldgeist’s narrow defeat of Best Solution, Capri and Douglas Macarthur last October, his narrow French Derby second would suggest their lot isn’t up to ours.
Unless you include the colt that finished ninth (‘never troubled leaders; one paced’). His name? Wings Of Eagles.
110 Khalidi, 109 Capri, 108 Crystal Ocean
107 Douglas Macarthur, War Decree, Yucatan
105 Best Solution, Venice Beach
BLETCHLEY FOR 100% BECKETT
3.00 Carlisle (Cumberland Plate) Three have come out and the ground is now good to soft at Carlisle with 26mm falling on the track since Monday evening and more showers forecast during the day.
Mukhayyam can only be a speculative selection given the open nature of the race but has been running well of late and copes well with give in the ground.
Up until 2015 he was trained by Sir Michael Stoute but since then has been with Tim Easterby’s stable who, unlike Stoutey, had a winner at Royal Ascot last week – Snoano in the Wolverton Handicap.
Mukhayyam finished second last time out in the competitive Queen Mother’s Cup Handicap at York for lady amateurs and is reunited with David Allan onboard today. He’s up 2lb for that run but that looks fair given it was a good effort and the opposition looks easier here.
3.30 Carlisle Bell Just a 4lb range between top and bottom of this handicap.
Favourites don’t win; outsiders do: 12-1, 18-1 (twice), 20-1, 25-1 and 33-1 (that’s just in the last decade).
All 17 stand their ground but the ground has turned against a few whose connections were surely expecting better ground?
Georgian Bay can be backed at 20.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing and ticks the boxes in terms of price range for the race but also has a sound form chance too.
The Karl Burke trained runner has yet to win on the turf but does have some good form with give in the ground and with Clifford Lee claiming five I think he looks one of the better ones in at the weights.
He was a course and distance third to Pensax Boy last time and is weighted to turn that around and in any event, of the pair, I feel he will handle the softer ground better. Pensax Boy has virtually no proven form on this type of ground.
4.00 Carlisle Fillies are looking for black type in this Listed race, but Bletchley already has it.
That was from her second in last year’s Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, when she was beaten a short-head by the subsequent Cheveley Park winner.
Bletchley, who will enjoy the softened surface, has obviously had her problems but was back to form in a first-time hood on her belated reappearance earlier this month, and trainer Ralph Beckett is 100% (4-4) with three-year-olds and upwards on this track.
5.00 Carlisle Bell (Consolation) Like the Bell itself earlier in the day, this consolation handicap largely goes to outsiders, though the favourite did win it 2007
You can weed out horses over the age of five, according to the stats. Frank Bridge sprung a 16/1 surprise at Leicester last time but could still prove competitive here off 5lb higher and has winning form on good to soft.
8.10 Kempton Artful Rogue, a strong staying type, has had training issues but, after a big run back at Sandown, should get back into the winner’s enclosure.
One of his two career wins has come here at Kempton.
We know one thing though, James Fanshawe’s domination of this race will come to and end. After training the last three runners he has no representative this year.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 4pts win 3pts place MUKHAYYAM (3.00 Carlisle)
BET 3pts win 2pts place GEORGIAN BAY (3.30 Carlisle)
BET 7pts win (nap) BLETCHLEY (4.00 Carlisle)
BET 3pts win 2pts place FRANK BRIDGE (5.00 Carlisle)
BET 4pts win ARTFUL ROGUE (8.10 Kempton)
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