IRISH DERBY’S ENTIRE 1.5 MILLION WILL STAY AT HOME: The English have done a Boris Johnson. They have swerved further scrutiny of their Classic colts in the Irish Derby by ducking the entire race, leaving the 1.5million euros to be shared out among four home stables, though in fact Aidan O’Brien is bidding for six of the seven prizemoney places. The 10 declared are analysed below in the ABC order of how many stats boxes they tick.
DESTINATION PROFIT IN DAQMAN NAP AND 8-1 WINNER: Daqman moved back into top gear yesterday with two winners from three bets: a nap and an 8-1 hit, which made him a total of 35.50 points profit on the day to recommended stakes.
WON 8-1 FRONTISPIECE
WON 11-10 GLOBAL DESTINATION (nap)
HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL FOR ANOTHER BEST BET.. It’s a big day at Carlisle today with the historic Bell and the Plate but the £40,000 Eternal Stakes for fillies has pulled in raiders from Ireland, one of them worth the nap.
Headlines:
🔹 VAN DYCK DERBY DOUBLE DOUBTS
🔹 TIME FOR THE GREAT McGONAGALL
🔹 NICKLAUS TO SHOW POWER DRIVE
🔹 IT’S ON A PLATE FOR UNCLE MICK
🔹 DON’T DESERT ICON AT THIS TRIP
🔹 VIADERA STAR OF THE LYONS’ DEN
VAN DYCK DERBY DOUBLE DOUBTS
ABC KEY : 5.20 The Curragh, Saturday (Irish Derby)
A Irish trained (88%) A+ Aidan O’Brien (10 wins)
B Group race winner (80%)
C Winner over 1m 2f or more (80%)
D Ran in the Epsom Derby (70%)
E Has won at least three times (70%)
X Draw (to be announced): 1 to 5 six out of seven (86%)
A+BCDE Anthony Van Dyck
Doing the Derby double from Epsom to the Curragh was common at the turn of the century – Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral (2000-2) – but came a 10-year gap until Camelot, 2012; Australia 2014; and Harzand 2016.
Against Anthony Van Dyck is the blanket finish to his Epsom Derby (pictured). Galileo and Camelot both won easily at Epsom; in Harzand’s race the placed horses pulled clear. Sinndar duelled with Sakhee but with five lengths back to the third.
Australia had to resist Kingston Hill but the third was three lengths away and, in the case of High Chaparral, the first two went 12 lengths clear.
The four colts only half a length behind Anthony Van Dyck on June 1 were separated by a nose and two short-heads. They can’t all be great horses but one could emerge from the pack, and that means Broome or Madhmoon.
A+BCDE Broome
Normally a laid-back sort, was restless in the stalls at Epsom, and finished fourth in that ruck on the hill. He needs winding up, so took a wide berth with a long raking run which was checked as they bunched up. He was coming back at them, finishing strongly.
ABCE Guaranteed
His Listed win at the Curragh three weeks back was his first race outside Group company since breaking his maiden almost a year ago. Well behind Anthony Van Dyck as a two-year-old and twice well beaten in Classic trials won by Broome.
ABD Madhmoon
His winning would be a fairytale for 86-year-old Kevin Prendergast, whose father, Paddy, won it four times way back when.
Mahdmoon ran on well out of the dip in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, finishing fourth, having beaten Broome easily as a juvenile.
Beaten only half a length in the Epsom Derby, just in front of Broome, after clipping heels and almost stumbling out of the race four furlongs out.
A+CD Norway
Trounced eight lengths in the Chester Vase, and only eighth in the Epsom Derby, after leading three out. Disappointing favourite in the Queen’s Vase (1m 6f soft), keeping on but eased down towards the finish.
A+C Il Paradiso
Not seen since breaking his maiden in May, and the horse he beat, Harpo Marx, was down the field in the Queen’s Vase, along with Norway and Western Australia.
A+C Western Australia
Well behind Madhmoon and Persian King as a two-year-old but good third in the Futurity won by subsequent Newmarket Guineas winner, Magna Grecia. Beaten favourite twice before winning a Listed on firm (1m 5f) at Navan in May. The Queen’s Vase defeat was on soft ground.
AC Rakan
A ‘truly idle’ colt, according to Dermot Weld, but related to an Irish Derby runner-up and has a fine action. Needed the run when nearly five lengths behind Broome in the Derrinstown Derby trial, then won the King George V (Listed) Cup at Leopardstown, with subsequent Queen’s Vase runner-up, Barbados (O’Brien) in second.
A+D Sovereign
Defeats (following a heavy-ground maiden last September) by – consecutively – Japan, Guaranteed, Broome, Broome again and finally Anthony Van Dyck, when he was 10th at Epsom, weakening in the final furlong.
A Buckhurst
Like any Australia, he could improve for this step up in trip after fifth to Broome in the Derrinstown trial and runner-up in the Gallinule (both 1m 2f), particularly so because he started out on the racecourse only this April.
TIME FOR THE GREAT McGONAGALL
3.30 Carlisle (Bell) The presentation bells have been raced for since 1599 but it may take longer for punters to find the winner. No outright favourite has scored since I can remember.
The usual suspects win it – Tim Easterby and Keith Dalgleish with runners today – but very hard to ring the Bell more than once, unless you are owners Middleham Racing.
Star of Southwold bids for their third Bell but appears to have a prohibitive 10st 1lb, including a 5lb penalty for a Chelmsford success six days ago, which takes him to 90. That may now look a bit mean, as he is said to have been reassessed at 87. A drifter this morning, despite the services of a 5lb claimer.
Tim Easterby gives himself four chances, his Al Erayg having dropped 10lb since last autumn. But, in my book of rules, he’s a lay, as winner only of his maiden more than three years and 12 races ago.
I prefer 10.5 BETDAQ offer Brother McGonagall, who has just struck form. He scored three out of four in June-July 2017 and a hat-trick at the same time last year.
Club Wexford (BETDAQ around 7.0) goes for a hat-trick, unchallenged winner two grades higher at Ayr on the last day from last year’s winner of the Bell, Waarif, whose trainer, David O’Meara, now saddles Lamloon, all-the-way winner at Ayr five days ago, so another with a 5lb penalty.
NICKLAUS TO SHOW POWER DRIVE
3.50 Salisbury It’s more than five years since Hors De Combat won a Flat-turf race in England and how he commands 10st top weight in this race is beyond me, albeit he is 8lb lower than when sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup last June. Never would have left James Fanshawe had he been any good.
Last year’s 10st top-weight was Wahash, beaten a nose by Power Of Darkness, one of two Marcus Tregoning three-year-olds to win this in three years.
Power Of Darkness has been targeted at back-to-backs wins and there wasn’t a penny for anything else this morning, bar Nicklaus (Ryan Moore). I think it’s between the two.
IT’S ON A PLATE FOR UNCLE MICK
4.00 Carlisle (Cumberland Plate) The stats suggest that the winner is easier to find than in the Bell. Six of the last nine Plate SPs have been between 3-1 and 13-2.
Tim Easterby goes for a hat-trick but Appointed looks a bigger gamble than the odds available in that his Ripon revival on the last day was on soft ground and it followed 21 defeats since July 2017.
Another Easterby runner, Dance King, won this race that year, but is nine now, trying to emulate Noble Alan who took the Plate aged 11 five years ago. He needs rain.
Tim’s uncle, Mick, won the Plate in 2013, and Where’s Jeff scored back to back in June-July last year.
When Where’s Jeff was third at York, Mutamaded was just in front of him, but Jeff’s better off at the weights now and looked an improved horse at Beverley in May. Tasty at 6.6 on BETDAQ.
DON’T DESERT ICON AT THIS TRIP
4.20 Salisbury (Bibury Cup) They think a lot of the Sea The Stars colt Desert Icon and have promised big things once he steps up to today’s trip and beyond. An interesting field but he could be special at around 4.0 on BETDAQ (early doors 5.5).
Apparate was talked of as a Derby type after winning his maiden at Newmarket in May but this is his first run since.
Ralph Beckett has won this twice (2010 and 2015) and Buriram has improved 10lb for two runs this season.
Though upped in grade at Royal Ascot (withdrawn because of the ground), failure of the placed horses since takes the shine off Great Example’s seemingly-impressive novice victory at Ripon.
Kiefer gets weight all round here but Gantier could close him down, 2lb better off for little more than the length that Kiefer beat him at Newbury 40 days ago.
VIADERA STAR OF THE LYONS’ DEN
4.30 Carlisle (Eternal Stakes) The £40,000 prizemoney has attracted raiders from the south of England and two from Ireland.
Joseph O’Brien’s challenger, Cava, who drops down from the Pattern, has a high draw to overcome and was easy to back at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Ger Lyons’ Viadera was preferred in the market at around 3-1, as Anglesey runner-up last summer, back to form on a sound surface at the Curragh on the last day.
The trainer has always thought a lot of this big daughter of Bated Breath, but his fillies weren’t right early on.
Tapisserie beat nothing well on the soft at Salisbury, and Neon Sea’s Chelmsford defeat of Impulsion – an outsider today – was no great shakes but, as an improver for Sir Michael Stoute, has to be feared.
Astrologer and Summer Daydream may both need an easier surface, and Viadera looks hard to beat
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.30 Carlisle (win 30)
BET 5pts win CLUB WEXFORD
BET 3pts win and place BROTHER McGONAGALL
3.50 Salisbury (win 20)
BET 7pts win POWER OF DARKNESS
BET 4.5pts win NICKLAUS
4.00 Carlisle (win 30)
BET 5.25pts win WHERE’S JEFF
4.20 Salisbury (win 30)
BET 6.25pts win DESERT ICON
4.30 Carlisle (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) VIADERA
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