12-1 WINNER FROM TIPPING WARRIOR DAQMAN: Daqman’s free daily tipping service continues to leave the ‘experts’ behind, with yet another outsider up yesterday, Arc Warrior (WON 12-1).
22 POINTS PROFIT OVER THE MOON: Daqman also picked Rose Of The Moon (WON 3-1) for two winners in four races at Wetherby and a profit on the day of 22 points.
DRIVE ON TO THE BETDAQ RACES! Daqman analyses the BETDAQ races at Kempton Park tonight, where he fancies Drive On, but first he takes a betting view of the return of Frankie Dettori at Lingfield.
Dettori is back today but frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn. Gone With The Wind may well win the 6f maiden (2.00) at Lingfield for him but the jockey no longer figures in the equation.
If you are a professional computer-based punter, using algorithms to produce your forecast, you will no doubt insert weighted jockey ability into the feed.
One of the best professional gamblers I ever met, Murray Dwyer, computer calculated from years of data that Lester Piggott was the best-ever jockey and that he used to improve his mounts by 6-8lb.
Now 6lb is two lengths in a sprint, and that two lengths can sometimes cover the first half-dozen home in a big-field handicap. Once upon a time of flying dismounts, Dettori would have had plus poundage added into many a betting formula and outcomes algorithm. No longer.
On his first rides in 2014, Frankie has to prove himself all over again, with just an 8% record to show for 2013, with 16 only wins from 205 mounts.
Compare that with Adam Kirby’s 20% on AW (125 wins) in 2013, and he’s the man to fear this afternoon, with a quartet of rides to Dettori’s comeback duo.
The Frankie fan club will be out in force, and he could win one – maybe even both – but my advice to punters is to bet to the facts and not go in blind on the fellow they used to know.
Meanwhile, the reverse is the case at Catterick, where Tony McCoy still reckons regularly to take pounds off their backs.
And at Southwell the McCoy of the future, Sam Twiston-Davies, already has to enter special calculations for his superior jockeyship.
At 21, Sam sees the National Hunt title door in his dreams, with Saturday’s Cleeve Hurdle a turnkey ride on another comeback kid, Big Buck’s.
4.55 Kempton Park (£500 Free Bets At Betdaq Maiden Fillies’ Stakes) This is a gift for three-year-olds, getting 18lb from their seniors. They have won all three runnings of the race so far.
River Goddess is the obvious one, with a decent effort at Newmarket on her CV but there was strong support for Platinum Pearl this morning, with Andrea Atzeni booked.
5.25 Kempton Park (Betdaq – The Sports Exchange – Maiden Stakes) The fillies want this maiden, too, with only Teenage Dream man enough to take them on. Well almost; he’s a gelding.
It means he has to carry 8lb more than the ‘girls’ and, as a six-year-old, he also gives them two years.
Sagesse is probably looking for a handicap mark later on. Her stable certainly doesn’t expect anything on this course. It’s gone 427 days here without a win (38 runners), according to the trade paper.
Conserve looks exposed. First-time blinkers might help but they’ve done nothing for Amy Weaver runners so far, including one at Southwell on Monday. First-time blinds. Last of 10.
However, Conserve has a weight pull on the morning favourite Avidly after their second and third at Lingfield last month. And she’s claimed off, too.
Trainer Lee Carter is in form but the dam of Comfort And Joy has produced only losers so far. I mean no wins, no places. Fleetwood Nix might even win it. She wouldn’t have to be much, but Conserve is the only bet on the conflicting evidence we know.
6.55 Kempton Park (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Handicap) A decent race, the declared field having scored 14 times in total from their last three starts.
Ralph Beckett and Marco Botti farm this track but Beckett’s Taquka has a long absence and a bridesmaid reputation to overcome after three seconds in a row and is drawn out in stall 8.
Botti’s Nova Princesse seems held by Harwood’s Volante, who should also beat Thataboy on the revised ratings after their first and fourth at Lingfield last month.
Handicap debutant National Service has that ‘could be anything’ tag after one run, one easy maiden win, and gets weight all round.
But both Drive On and Oriental Relation have already won or gone close in class-2 races. That’s two grades above this lot’s win form so far.
Drive On is unbeaten in three starts after being gelded and, though up a few pounds, is still unexposed at today’s trip. Offers of 7.8 this morning were too big. I saved on Oriental Relation.
7.25 Kempton Park (Betdaq 1st UK Commission Free Handicap) There’s another Prescott animal here. We’ve seen already that he has very poor form at Kempton, with a string of losers, going back 427 days.
Stall 8 for Libra Romana was also offputting until two came out. The filly fits the old Prescott pattern – first time in a handicap, upped in trip – but I was still reluctant to take the ‘tips on’ offers this morning (at time of writing).
Tortoise is slow. First-time blinkers didn’t help much at Southwell on the last day, and she seems held by Royal Bushida. Visors didn’t do much for Copper Cavalier at Wolver.
Dawnfromthepast, friendless at 32.0 this morning, might improve for this step up in trip. I’ll back him to win 20, with a one-point saver on Libra Romana.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 each)
BET 3.5pts win FAITH KEEPER and 1pt win (stakes saver) JAUNTY JOURNEY (12.50 Southwell)
BET 7pts win STORMHOEK (1.20 Southwell)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) HIT THE TOP (2.40 Catterick)
BET 7pts win PLATINUM PEARL (4.55 Kempton)
BET 6pts win CONSERVE (5.25 Kempton)
BET 3pts win DRIVE ON and 2pts win (stakes saver) ORIENTAL RELATION (6.55 Kempton)
BET 0.6pts win DAWNFROMTHEPAST, with 1pt win (stakes saver) LIBRA ROMANA (7.25 Kempton)
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