DAQMAN FIRST TO THE VALUE BUT NO ICING ON BIRTHDAY CAKE: It’s your birthday most days with the incredible value on BETDAQ but, after his hat-trick on Monday, Daqman’s early gamble in the big-handicap City And Suburban at Epsom yesterday became an uncooperative favourite. Good Birthday (100-30 favourite from BETDAQ 8.0) beat himself by dwelling at the start.
GUINEAS GUIDES TODAY AND TOMORROW START WITH THE 1,000: See how they won! Today Daqman checks out the paths to glory of 1,000 Guineas winners and matches them up with the contenders at Newmarket on May 2. Tomorrow the 2,000 Guineas.
CLUES TO FILLIES’ CLASSIC QUALITY
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Sunday, May 2 (1,000 Guineas) Though Santa Barbara has no official rating, she is even shorter (around 6-4) for the 1,000 Guineas after the latest declaration stage reduced the probables to 20.
Check out the 20 alongside results of the Moyglare and the Fillies Mile as two-year-olds; the Nell Gwyn trial in the Spring as three-year-olds.
That’s the provenance of winners of the first fillies’ Classic in the last two seasons (Love and Hermosa) and beyond.
Love won the Moyglare and was third in the Fillies Mile. Hermosa was third in the Moyglare; second in the Fillies Mile. Minding (2016) won both!
Sky Lantern (2013) won the Moyglare and was second in the Nell Gwyn for Richard Hannon, senior. Now son Richard has decided that Snow Lantern, who has only just won her maiden, is not good enough for the race.
Alcohol Free won the Fred Darling on the same card on Sunday but also looks below standard: an 86-rated was runner-up and the Newbury trial has not been a good guide this century. Key races give us:
113 Pretty Gorgeous (Joseph O’Brien) Second in the Moyglare and winner of the Fillies Mile.
111 Mother Earth (Aidan O’Brien) Third in the Fillies Mile and runner-up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.
111 Sacred (William Haggas) Comfortably won the Nell Gwyn Stakes. Love Is You (Roger Charlton) was running on third.
110 Dubai Fountain (Mark Johnston) Second in the May Hill Stakes; fourth in the Fillies Mile.
105 Saffron Beach (Jane Chapple-Hyam) Won the Oh So Sharp Stakes as a two-year-old. Second in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.
104 Lullaby Moon (Ralph Beckett) Prix Miesque clear winner at Chantilly in the autumn (heavy). Filly in third finished well, close fifth, in Prix Imprudence, Deauville’s top trial this month. Needs rain.
AQUAMAN FOR DAQMAN
⭕ 2.20 Catterick I fully expected Aquaman to be firmly odds on, so it was a nice surprise to see on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE that 1 buys me 1 at the time of writing.
This is the easiest opportunity yet for Aquaman who should add to the good recent form of the Roger Varian stable (5 winners from last 28).
After a satisfactory debut at Sandown, Aquaman went on to finish 6th of 9 from a poor draw at Chester and then ran his best race on his next start when runner-up to Marrakech Moon at Yarmouth – the pair pulling nicely clear from Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge who was an impressive Newcastle winner earlier this month.
Front running tactics were deployed at Yarmouth and if so again today by Jack Mitchell he could prove hard to peg back around the tight seven furlong circuit.
The opposition looks modest. Fast Medicine ran much better at Newmarket last week when fifth at 66/1 but looked an awkward ride to the point of getting unbalanced under Robert Havlin.
The danger might be Muhalhel who looked a different horse from his debut when third at Chelmsford last time out. The wind surgery and tongue tie combined to conjure up a much improved effort.
MY EYES ARE ON EAGLE
⭕ 4.00 Catterick Wise Eagle scored with enough in hand here two weeks ago that the combination of a 5lb rise and drop back in trip might not halt his progress and he can complete his hat-trick.
The Adam Nicol trained runner won by a nose at Newcastle before winning here over 1m 6f – the drop back to 1m 4f isn’t really a concern given his current form and he was a winner over a mile last year at Lingfield.
Molinari was a pipped a short head over course and distance on his reappearance earlier in the month. That was his first start for Martin Todhunter and he should put in another good run from just a pound higher.
LUCKY LAST AT LINGFIELD
⭕ 7.40 Lingfield Lucky Ava is already a dual course and distance winner and judged by her run at Windsor last week can add to that tonight. She chased home Mister Bluebird and was only beaten a half length.
Swooper had a nightmare run last time over course and distance when slowly away and did exceptionally well to finish fourth.
Backing ‘unlucky’ horses is not usually a great plan as more than often the factors are all built into the price and Swooper’s best form has not come at Lingfield.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 10.0pts win (nap) AQUAMAN (2.20 Catterick)
BET 6.6pts win WISE EAGLE (4.00 Catterick)
BET 5.3pts win LUCKY AVA (7.40 Lingfield)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
