IMPRESSIVE NAP IS FESTIVAL HOPE: Cheers! Daqman’s nap got on track again yesterday when Twoshotsoftequila was an impressive winner at Newcastle, earning his place in the Kim Muir Challenge Cup at Cheltenham next week.
Tuesday: winner a day for five days
WON 10-11 TWOSHOTSOFTEQUILA (nap) 1.99 BETDAQ XSP
Monday
WON 9-4 MI SUENO
Sunday
WON 5-2 LOUNGE LIZARD
Saturday
WON 15-2 HELTENHAM
WON 9-4 THUNDER ROCK
Friday
WON 3-1 SHADES OF SUMMER
WON 9-4 PENZANCE
CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: Daqman’s preview for all four days at the Cheltenham Festival continues with the Wednesday card.
WINNING STATS NEXT WEDNESDAY
FESTIVAL COUNTDOWN: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey for next Wednesday at Cheltenham, with ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
LAYS LOGIC: There’s potential to lay favourites of 9-2 or shorter in the 3.30 and 4.50
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 13 (Baring Bingham ex-Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) Four favourites up out of six, three of them odds on; and only one winner’s SP in double figures since 2012. Ages: Just two horses older than six have won since 1974.
Ratings (last eight years): 146, 155, 147, 155, 147, 156, 150, 151 148. Trainers; Irish nine out of 10, including Willie Mullins (4).
The last 14 winners started out in Irish Points or in bumpers; 11 had won over at least 2m 4f and taken a Graded hurdle.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) Five favourites up out of the last nine; plus two at 4-1 SP in that time.
Ages: 14 out of the last 17 were aged 7; and 14 out of the last 16 had won a Graded race; 11 had already won at Cheltenham.
Ratings: 156, 150, 154, 158, 155, 153, 164, 159, 153. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3); five Irish winners in 11 years.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Coral Cup) 19 of the last 20 favourites have been beaten, with 12 of the 15 most recent winners at double-figure odds up to 20-1, 28-1, 33-1 and 50-1 in the last six seasons.
Just four in 23 years have won when above the age of seven, and 12 of the last 14 had raced over hurdles no more than 10 times, 11 out of the last 14 at 2m 2f or further.
Ratings: 139, 149, 148, 143, 151, 140, 138, 152, 141. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (4), Ireland (5) in last 11 years. Weights: 10st 12lb to 11st 5lb have won six of the last eight.
LAYS LOGIC: Losing favourites’ odds off-putting; 9-2 last year and recent best before that Tombstone (2017) at 7-2. But you may still feel that those are good odds among 19 losers!
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Chase) Four favourites have won in the last 10 years; only one winner of double-figure SP. Ages: all between 7 and 10.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (5 out of 11), Henry De Bromhead (3), Paul Nicholls (2), Willie Mullins just the one, last year. Ratings: 171, 170, 159, 170, 175, 165, 156, 175.
Some 18 out of 20 winners had scored at least five times over fences and 17 ran at Cheltenham before; 11 of the last 13 had won a Grade 1. Irish or French bred took the prize in 14 out of 20 years.
LAYS LOGIC: Five out of seven strikes with favourites! Shishkin (2021), p/u 5-6 fav; Un De Sceaux (2016) 2nd 4-6; Douvan (2017) 7th 2-9; Altior WON 1-1 fav (2018); Altior WON 4-11 fav (2019); Defi Du Seuil 4th 2-5 fav, Chacun Pour Soi 3rd 8-13 fav.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Cross-Country) In the last 10 years has produced winner (twice), second and third (third) in the Grand National.
Favourites: three out of 11 but outsiders at 14-1, 16-1 and 25-1. Ages: between 8, 9 10 won 10 out of 11.
Horses aged 12+ have failed in 11 years out of 14.
Ratings: 134, 148, 142, 150, 159, 152, 166, 160. Trainers: Gordon Elliott (5), Enda Bolger (3).
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Grand Annual Challenge Cup) Only two favourites have won in 11 years and most winners have been enormous prices: 66-1, 40-1, 28-1 (twice), 20- and 16-1 (twice). Ages: 7, 8, 9 (10 out of 13)
Ratings: 143, 140, 147, 150, 139, 147, 152, 136. Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2). Eight of the last 10 winners had not scored over fences that season.
LAYS: Rock The World (2016) 3rd 9-2 fav; Le Prezien (2017) 8th 7-2 fav; Magic Saint (2019) 10th 9-2 fav; Chosen Mate (2020) WON 7-2 fav, Embittered (2021) 9-2 fav fell; Andy Dufresne (2022) 2nd 10-3 fav. Note that Rock The World and Le Prezien both won the following year.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper) SP: Three favourites have won in eight seasons and the trend is away from a run of big prices to short SPs, with six of the eight in single figures.
The double-figure winners (11-1 and 25-1) are both down to Willie Mullins, who also won 10 years ago at 25-1.
Every winner had scored last time out: 13-13. Ages 5 and 6 have won the last 12.
DAQMAN ANTE-POST: Argento Boy @ 14-1, Quebecois @ 14-1
HALL MARKED FOR A DOUBLE
⭕ 4.15 Catterick: Only four runners but every one a winner last time out, three of them here at Catterick.
Rebecca Menzies,wno saddles Onward Route, landed a seven-day double with Twoshotsoftequila at Newcastle yesterday.
But the same stable’s double bid at Catterick today is longer term with Onward Route having won here in late November.
He’s scored before after a similar break but all his winning form is on good or good to soft and today is reckoned soft, heavy in places, which raises a question-mark.
This time the quick double bid, Catterick eight days on from Catterick, is with Burrows Hall, carrying a 7lb penalty.
His win was on soft over today’s CD under the same jockey, and what a strike! He made almost all the running and was eased down from 12 lengths clear at the last. It was Sue Smith’s third winner in five days.
Burrows Hall is the youngster of the quartet and that win in February was his first attempt at the trip, so more improvement is expected.
Barricane has won on soft and heavy, though dropping to class-5 to do so. Champ Royal won over this Catterick CD 33 days back.
The clincher where Burrows Hall is concerned is that a horse called Shantou Moon, who was within a neck of Champ Royal, was then almost five lengths behind the selection in his easy success the last day.
⭕ 6.30 Kempton A 600,000gns buy from Ireland as a two-year-old, Nariko’s three races so far are clearly not what was hoped but she’s a winner nevertheless and, what’s more, Nariko scored at Kempton last September.
Changing stables may help (Kevin Ryan to trainer-in-form Hugo Palmer) for the daughter of a Guineas winner out of a Dark Angel mare, and she looks well in for her handicap debut.
She gets weight from Media Shooter, CD winner in a lower grade, and from another class-5 novice scorer, Roman Emperor.
They were second and eighth in another leg of this London Sprint Series 17 days back.
Jungle Mac was Jack Channon’s last winner but he did it in a very small field at 16-1 ON. The runner-up was 66-1 and the third one home has since finished eighth in a class-6 at 50-1.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.9 win 2.39 place Nariko
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.15 Catterick (win 12, nap)
BET 12pts win BURROWS HALL
6.30 Kempton (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7.25pts win and 5.25pts place NARIKO
DAQ MULTIPLES
BET 1pt win treble
Burrows Hall, Nariko
and 3.45 Catterick
HASTON CLERMONT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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