13 BETS WITH SIX DAYS TO GO: Daqman has already had 12 ante-post bets at Cheltenham. Today is lucky 13 in the RSA Chase as he analyses stats and facts for Wednesday, the second day of next week’s Cheltenham Festival meeting. It’s part two of his Cheltenham countdown day by day, one week ahead.
NO FONTWELL: Daqman has had to put a line through his Fontwell preview and selections with the meeting called off this morning. He has found three bets elsewhere on the day at Catterick, Lingfield and Kempton.
NO ONE WANTS TO BUMP INTO YANWORTH!
1.30 Cheltenhan, Wednesday (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle) Here comes Yanworth, a prospective odds-on shot NOT trained by Willie Mullins, but with Alan King, whose career began just down the road under ‘Duke’ Nicholson.
The 78 entry is now down to 50, and many of those are engaged in the Supreme on Tuesday. That will split the field and it will thin down further in fear of Yanworth, unless there is something unforeseen with his prep.
SPOTLIGHT: Yanworth comes from bumpers, like 15 of the last 17 Neptune winners. He was fourth in the Champion Bumper. Took them apart over hurdles at Cheltenham in January, hardly off the bridle for his fourth successive success.
The form is gilt-edged: his Warwick runner-up, Le Prezien, won at Doncaster by 19 lengths; his Ascot second won at Musselburgh by 11 lengths; and the horse he beat in the Neptune Trial at Cheltenham had himself won at Cheltenham earlier by 15 lengths.
2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday (RSA Chase) Tony McCoy’s tip, World Hurdle winner More Of That, is inexperienced (only two chases although aged eight) and short of match practice (not run this year) for a stable (Jonjo O’Neill’s) that’s had a poor winter, and the horse has yet to be placed in a high-Grade race.
In fact 21 consecutive eight-year-olds have failed to win in the decade, with aged seven is the best group, like his market rival No More Heroes.
SPOTLIGHT: Blaklion has been dropped from the betting for his other engagements. He beat Definitely Red at Wetherby further than did Black Hercules at Warwick. And he gave away more weight.
Seeyouatmidnight beat him from the front at Cheltenham in January but Blaklion was again giving poundage over three furlongs shorter.
In this column, we’re punting that Roi des Francs goes for the NH Chase and Out Sam for a handicap on the opening day. So we can expect Blaklion to be shorter than his current 11.0 on BETDAQ.
THERE’S A GREAT FIELD FOR THE CUP..
2.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Coral Cup) Favourites don’t win. But look no further than the next six beyond the favourite in the betting at the ‘off’ (9 wins out of 10).
Horses aged five and six have won six out of seven. Five out of seven have scored from a rating of 135 to 142 but suddenly, as the quality has increased, two of the last three have been rated 148 and 153.
And this year 142 is right on the edge for getting a run. Five off that mark are numbers 35-39 on the card, as it stands.
Only one horse above 11st 6lb has won it in nine seasons, so look for good positions at the age and weight, handy in the BETDAQ market, but not to the fore..
And you get Great Field and Arbre De Vie (both for Willie Mullins) and Kilcrea Vale (for Nicky Henderson).
3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Queen Mother Champion Chase) The last three winners have been Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets. And a one-time Champion is likely to do it again in this race; rex quondam rex futurus.
But another good guide is the Arkle for novices in the previous season. Last year’s one-two? Un De Sceaux and God’s Own who are both now lining up for this seniors version.
I’m making no judgments yet, except to say that the BETDAQ orange had 109% overround when I checked.. at this early stage? You won’t get that with the bookies in most races anywhere on the day!
RATINGS-BAND KEY TO WINNING OUTSIDERS
4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Cross-Country) Hats off to Philip Hobbs if he can get my old punting pal, Balthazar King, back for the race, and not too old at 12 for another go at the National.
King won the 2012 running of this Glenfarclas and then came back to take the 2014 renewal before he ran second at 14-1 in the National with this column on him at 39.0 BETDAQ offers.
Did you know that, Balthazar King’s second success apart, the winners of this in the last five years have had official ratings of only 134 to 140?
Such as Bless The Wings, Cantlow and Rivage d’Or fit the bill but are all 11 years old, and the last 25 runners of that age have all failed in the decade.
4.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Come in Monsieur McManus! J P has bought Le Curieux and kept him in training with Francois Nicolle for this race. He was 18.0 in the BETDAQ orange when I checked out the offers.
But he has been hit with a rating of 136, which is a bit steep and outside the parameters of 124 to 131 (nine years out of 10) for the winners’ mark.
The front-runners in the market don’t fit that stat. But that’s very much in keeping with the last four results of the race, with SPs of 25-1 (twice), 33-1 and 40-1.
Wouldn’t we love to crack that one next week!
5.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Champion Bumper) Every winner in the decade had scored on the last day. None had ever been out of the frame; not a one.
The Irish have won seven of the last nine but fastest in the trials have been High Bridge (John Ferguson) and Westend Story (Philip Hobbs), 18.0 on BETDAQ yet only 12-1 in a place with bookmakers.
SPOTLIGHT High Bridge is a rarity. He’s up to 14-1 fixed odds but BETDAQ offers are in single figures, as low as 10.5. Who knows something I don’t know..?
FONTWELL ABANDONED
Fontwell’s card this afternoon was called off this morning after a deluge of rain overnight.
A total of 19 millimetres of rain was reported to have fallen at the track, leaving patches of standing water on heavy ground. Officials didn’t need to deliberate for long.
Wincanton (Thursday) and Leicester (Friday) are subject to inspections later today and tomorrow respectively to see if their cards can go ahead.
ROXY STRIKING WHILE THE IRON IS HOT
Roxyfet can complete a rapid hat-trick in the opening chase at Catterick this afternoon. He has won two races in just 10 days – both at Sedgefield over the fences and hurdles and although up 9lb for the first of those wins – he escapes a penalty for his hurdles win on Sunday and Micky Hammond may well have played his cards really well with this one.
Not only does Roxyfet appear well handicapped at the moment he is also relishing his racing and can see off main danger My Friend George who finished second here last time over a shorter trip.
Lily Little Legs has only won one from 19 so you can afford to be wrong when she does pop up but did run well at Wetherby last time out in a similar small field and was only over-hauled close home.
ONE MORE CHANCE FOR TEMPLIER
I am in the last chance saloon with Templier but giving him a final fling in the 10 furlong maiden at Lingfield (3.40).
The Mark Johnston trained three-year-old has finished runner-up three times from five starts but the overall level of his form suggests he is up to winning this and the chances are he came across a good one last time out at Wolverhampton when second to Tathqeef who holds a Derby entry.
Main danger is Carry Me Home but he disappointed when a beaten 11/10 favourite here last time in a bunch finish.
DAFT TO OPPOSE ELJADDAAF
Eljaddaaf won nicely at Wolverhampton last time out and has the scope for further improvement to go in again in in a field of largely exposed types for the 6.40 at Kempton tonight. The Dean Ivory trained runner failed to show much in maidens but is clearly starting out on a good handicap mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for today)
BET 8pts win (nap) ROXYFET (2.30 Catterick)
BET 8pts win TEMPLIER (3.40 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win ELJADDAAF (6.40 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 50): 5pts win: BLAKLION (2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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