CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: MORE BETS ANTE-POST: There are two more ante-post bets on BETDAQ for next week’s Cheltenham Festival with Daqman today previewing the second day, next Wednesday.
CATTERICK SUPERNAP: The snow has melted and the ground is heavy at Catterick. That’s good news for the SUPERNAP.
MONALEE LOOKS VALUE ON BETDAQ
1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14 (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) With Samcro (Gordon Elliott) said to be running here, and odds on to win it, you either back or lay him on the day; not now.
Or you oppose him with very much bigger BETDAQ offers than are available with the bookies, which is par for the course with an odds-on favourite. But with what?
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Willie Mullins’ Getabird and Next Destination, plus Samcro and Black Op. Mullins has won it four times in the decade.
Betdaq value We already have Black Op (3pts to win 50 ante-post 17.5).
Next Destination, 7-2 with most layers, was 11.0 in the BETDAQ orange. On The Blind Side, 9-2, was 9.0 with the exchange.
Money horse Samcro
2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14 (RSA Novices’ Chase) Seven-year-olds have won eight of the last 10, and have the first four in the market:
Presenting Percy, Monalee, Black Corton, Invitation Only.
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Al Boum Photo
Betdaq value Monalee, generally 3-1, is pressing Presenting Percy for the top spot in most markets, yet is 6.4 on BETDAQ
Money horse: Black Corton
2.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14 (Coral Cup) The last 14 favourites in this handicap have all failed to score, so William Henry and Max Dynamite are perched precariously at the front of the market, the more precarious because only two horses in 18 years have scored when over the age of seven.
3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14 (Champion Chase) Altior is unbeaten in seven chases and five hurdles races; Min never out of the frame with 4-5 over fences; Douvan 9-10. You’d think it was wide open but not so; there’s an odds-on favourite.
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Politologue. I took Altior out of the list because he is sure to be the one at odds on.
Betdaq value If, indeed, you think Altior is a certainty, you should take the 4-5 offers (1.8) in the BETDAQ orange. He is shorter everywhere else.
But there is seemingly huge value on BETDAQ against him: 8.0 Douvan who is generally 7-2 with bookmakers. Politologue, 7-1 and 8-1, is 17.5
Money horse Altior
4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14 (Cross-Country) Enda Bolger, who has won this three times in the decade, still has four left in, including Josie’s Orders and Auvergnat.
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies The 2017 winner, Causes Of Causes, was scoring for the third time for this column at Cheltenham when taking this race last year, and trainer Gordon Elliott is bullish.
Betdaq value But Cause Of Causes is not value at 11-4 with bookmakers (BETDAQ 3.75) unless the ground dries out.
The 2016 winner Josies Orders is back to form, the ’moral’, giving weight when short headed by Auvergnat over shorter on the last day.
That was an eye-opener as Josie had seemed a good-ground horse until that race, which was on heavy at Punchestown. Take 7.0 on BETDAQ
4.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14 (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Redicean, Act Of Valour and Nube Negra are the only horses in single figures in the markets but there’s been just one winning favourite in the decade.
That’s despite most winners being trained by the usual suspects: Paul Nicholls 3, Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliott, Nick Williams.
VERNI, VERNI GOOD SUPERNAP
When the snow melts, the ground turns even softer. Great to have a full compliment of meetings back today but it’s heavy ground today at Catterick and plenty of speculation that heavy might appear in the official going description at Cheltenham next week.
2.20 Catterick Verni looks the nap on the Catterick card and at around 1.72 on BETDAQ ticks the criteria for SUPERNAP status.
He was runner-up in a much better race at Exeter last time out on his chasing debut, also staged on heavy ground and over a similar trip. Trainer Philip Hobbs had a winner the last day he had a runner and Verni should take full advantage of the drop in grade.
He was a three times winner over hurdles but also showed he had a touch of class when finishing second to Champagne Classic in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at last year’s Festival.
Five runners here however both Scorpo and Solid Strike can be readily dismissed.
De Dollar Man was a beaten odds-on favourite at Wetherby last time out but prior to that won a handicap chase at Exeter. He has more experience jumping wise but does have to give 6lb away to Verni which looks a tall order.
The same comments apply to Cracking Find and additionally his three career wins have never come on ground worse than good to soft.
3.00 Lingfield Marietta Robusti picks up the statutory 6lb penalty for her win at Chelmsford just four days ago but I thought it came in a much stronger contest and she has scope for further improvement.
She beat Kodiac Express that day who had won his previous start on the turf at Nottingham.
Warrior’s Valley is another penalised recent winner. His win came at Southwell but it’s always dangerous to assume winners there can reproduce the same level of form on this different all-weather surface. And it’s a stronger race to boot.
Sea Ess Seas seems to be a longer term project and I’m not sure I can build too much of a case for him having beaten only two home at Kempton last time out when going off favourite. It was a better race and he is dropped 2lb but I much prefer the claims of Marietta Robusti.
3.10 Fontwell Euxton Lane was no match for the odds-on Global Citizen at Southwell last time out but still ran a big race finishing second. On the same soft ground today he is preferred to likely favourite Casterly Rock who looks a little short.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 except SUPERNAP and ANTEPOST)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win VERNI (2.20 Catterick)
BET 5.2pts win MARIETTA ROBUSTI (3.00 Lingfield)
BET 8.3pts win EUXTON LANE (3.10 Fontwell)
ANTE-POST (win 50): BET 9.25pts win MONALEE (2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday)
ANTE-POST (win 50): BET 8.25pts win JOSIE’S ORDERS (4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday)
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