SO CLOSE TO 150 POINTS PROFIT: After his nap was beaten half a length in the afternoon, Daqman relied on Hardstyle (WON 9-4) to break even for the day yesterday. He won easily at Wolverhampton to bring Daqman’s total to 10 winning bets in five days (see Daqman Tuesday for details). Overall profit 146.66 points.
COUNTDOWN TO CHELTENHAM Day 2: Daqman’s stats-and-facts Cheltenham survey details his research a week ahead; so here’s Wednesday next week with ratings, trainers records, winners’ age and form lines, weights carried and how favourites fared.
CHAMPIONS? 8 CRASH AT ODDS-ON
⭕ CHELTENHAM Wednesday, March 11: LAYS LOGIC: After a good start for favourites in the two opening races, they then fall like ninepins, with 80% odds-on losers later in the day.
Daqman will track them down each day; meanwhile these facts and figures will help define your personal algorithms to focus on winner-finding and risk reduction.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham (Turners Novices’ Hurdle) Five favourites up out of eight, all five odds-on; and only one winner’s SP in double figures since 2012. Ages: Just two horses older than six have won since 1974.
Ratings: 146, 155, 147, 155, 147, 156, 150, 151, 148, 157 and last year 147.
Trainers: Irish 10 out of 12, including Willie Mullins (5), with a hat-trick completed last year; Ben Pauling and (last year) Dan Skelton the only Brits.
The last 16 winners started out in bumpers or in Irish Points; 13 had won over at least 2m 4f and taken a Graded hurdle.
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) Six favourites up out of 11 and two winners at 4-1 but the sequence was broken by a 20-1 shot last year.
Ages: 16 out of the last 19 were aged 7; and 15 out of the last 18 had won a Graded race; 13 had already won at Cheltenham or finished in the first four in the Champion Bumper.
Ratings: 156, 150, 154, 158, 155, 153, 164, 159, 153, 159, 152. Trainers: Willie Mullins (4), Nicky Henderson (3). Seven Irish winners in 13 years.
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Premier Handicap Cup) 21 of the last 22 favourites have been beaten, with 14 of the 18 most recent winners at double-figure odds, including 12-1, 16-1 (three times), 20-1, 28-1, 33-1 and 50-1 since 2016.
Just five in 25 years have won when over the age of seven, and 12 of the last 16 had scored at 2m 2f or further.
Ratings: 139, 149, 148, 143, 151, 140, 138, 152, 141, 141, 146. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (4), Dan Skelton (2) but Ireland 6 out of 13 (W Mullins 2). Weights: 10st 12lb to 11st 5lb have won six of the last 10.
LAYS LOGIC: Losing favourites’ odds 3-1, 4-1 and 9-2 in last three seasons and best before that 7-2 in 2017. But you may still feel that those are good odds among 21 losers!
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Cross-Country) In the last 11 years this test has produced winner (twice), second and third in the Grand National.
Favourites: five out of the last nine have won with no winner’s SP bigger than 7-1.
Ages: 8, 9 10 shared 12 out of 13. Ratings: 134, 148, 142, 150, 159, 152, 166, 160, 157. Irish trainers 8-9: Gordon Elliott (6).
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Champion Chase) LAYS LOGIC: Eight odds-on favourites beaten in 10 years. Un De Sceaux 2nd 4-6 (2016); Douvan 7th 2-9 (2017); Altior WON 1-1 (2018); Altior WON 4-11 (2019); Defi Du Seuil 4th 2-5 (2020); Chacun Pour Soi 3rd 8-13 (2021); Shishkin p/u 5-6 (2022); El Fabiolo pulled up 2-9 (2024); Jonbon 2nd 5-6 (2025).
Ages: all between 7 and 10. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (5), Henry De Bromhead (4), Willie Mullins (2), Paul Nicholls (2). Ratings: 171, 170, 159, 170, 175, 165, 156, 175, 159.
Some 18 out of 21 winners had scored at least five times over fences and 18 ran at Cheltenham before; 12 of the last 14 had won a Grade 1. Irish or French bred took the prize in 15 out of 22 years.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Grand Annual Challenge Cup) Only two favourites have won in 12 years and most winners have been big prices: 66-1, 40-1, 28-1 (twice), 20-1, 16-1 (twice), 12-1, 10-1. Ages: 7, 8, 9 (11 out of 14)
Ratings: 143, 140, 147, 150, 139, 147, 152, 136, 138. Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2). Eight of the last 11 winners had not scored over fences that season.
LAYS LOGIC: Rock The World (2016) 3rd 9-2 fav; Le Prezien (2017) 8th 7-2 fav; Magic Saint (2019) 10th 9-2 fav; Embittered (2021) 9-2 fav fell; Andy Dufresne (2022) 2nd 10-3 fav; Sa Fureur (2024) 4th 4-1 fav. Note that Rock The World and Le Prezien both won the following year.
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper) SP: Only three favourites have won in 11 seasons but the trend is away from a run of big prices to short SPs, the last five at 85-40, 15-8, 7-2, 9-2, 4-1.
The double-figure winners in the last eight years (11-1 and 25-1) were both down to Willie Mullins’ outsiders; he was also the culprit 12 years ago at 25-1.
Every winner had scored last time out: 15-15. Ages 5 and 6 have won the last 14.
KATE TO SKATE HOME
⭕ 5.07 Southwell today Kate O’Riley was mixing it in class 1 company over hurdles at the end of last year and not disgraced either.
She’s also a 2-4 winner on the all-weather and ran with credit at Lingfield last month when a staying on sixth. The step up in trip from 1m 2f to 1m 3f is in her favour here.
Spirit Of Jura (off the course for 147 days) is best watched leaving Celestial Moment as the biggest danger.
The James Fanshawe trained runner won nicely here last September before being outclassed and stuck in the mud when last of 18 in a Doncaster Listed race. That run is probably best ignored.
TOP HAT THE NAP
⭕ 5.40 Southwell A real stamina test on the Tapeta surface over the 2m 2 1/2f trip.
Andrew Balding has saddled eight winners from his last 20 runners and might have the answer here too with Hatysa who bids for her third win in just four starts. She has been a revelation since being stepped up in trip and might have been in need of the run when third at Newcastle last month on her first start since September.
Biggest danger on the Betdaq Betting Exchange market is Tarbat Ness who is now on for a hat-trick after romping home at Newcastle last time out but is now up 7lb and up in class.
VITAL SELECTION
⭕ 8.30 Kempton Vitalline is consistent enough at this level and gets some help from the handicapper which should be enough to resume winning ways.
He won here in December over six furlongs but is also a previous course and distance winner over tonight’s longer trip.
In a weak contest I’ll include Twitch who is well drawn in 2 (stall 1 a non runner) and could go well fresh. Whether he can regain some of his vastly superior early career form is the big question but I’m playing at big odds to find out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
5.07 Southwell (win 10)
BET 5.5pts win KATE O’RILEY
★ 5.40 Southwell (win 10, nap)
BET 5.2pts win HATYSA
8.30 Kempton (both win 10)
BET 3.9pts win VITALLINE
BET 1.8pts win TWITCH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
