108 POINTS PROFIT WITH DAY-ONE HITS: Daqman made 108.75 points profit on Day 1 at Cheltenham with three winners and a successful lay. He was on Edwardstone three times: as the nap, Fortune Cookie (wins 25 at SP) and bull’s-eye ante-post bet (wins 50). A second Fortune Cookie won, also at 10-point level stakes and, in the juvenile hurdle, he picked the 10-1 winner and laid the 15-8 runner-up. The day was a 4-1 win over Pricewise.
WON 5-2 EDWARDSTONE (Fortune Cookie, nap, win 50 @ BETDAQ 13.0)
WON 10-1 BRAZIL
WON (2nd 13-8) GAELIC WARRIOR lay same race
WON 2-1 STATTLER (Fortune Cookie from 3.75 on BETDAQ)
Updates (for the season)
Daqman 37, Pricewise 22
Lays Logic: 8-11
Fortune Cookies: 17-25 Profit 120.74
Today’s headlines
STAR’S PROVEN STAMINA
BRAVE MAN CLAIMS 1-2-3
ROAD LAID OUT FOR THIS
IT’S SHISHKIN’S COURSE
ON GUARD, TIGER ROLL!
SKY: PIRATE OR AMARILLO
NOT-SO-FACILE FAVOURITE
STAR’S PROVEN STAMINA
TRAINERS SO FAR: Great Britain 4, Ireland 3 (Ireland 3, England 3, Scotland 1): Nicky Henderson 2; one each Henry De Bromhead, Alan King, Willie Mullins, Padraig Roche, Lucinda Russell.
JOCKEYS: Nico De Boinville 2; one each Rachael Blackmore, Tom Cannon, Derek Fox, Patrick Mullins, Mark Walsh.
FAVOURITES: Wjt; W; 0; W; 0; 2; 2.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Sir Gerhard 151, Three Stripe Life 144, Stage Star 143, Journey With Me 142 (notional)
FORTUNE COOKIE: Stage Star
ANTE-POST: BETDAQ I Am Maximus 17.0 , Whatdeawant 21.0
LAYS LOGIC: Like the Supreme, here’s another novice race that has been decimated but all my early bets stand their ground. Can one of them beat Sir Gerhard?
Favourites have a 50% record in the last 10 years but against Sir Gerhard is that only one winner has been aged older than six since 1974 and that was in 1998. One or two of the youngsters could improve past him. He has not yet done the distance and is Flat-bred.
FORM: Sir Gerhard is 2-2, the last day winning at the Dublin Festival by a comfortable six lengths from Three Stripe Life, who had also been runner-up in the Future Champions at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting.
Stage Star beat nothing well in an autumn hat-trick but showed speed and stamina (won 2m 4f twice and is bred to get 3m). He was kept for this while his stable was under a cloud.
The Ballymore trial winner, Hillcrest, switches to the Albert Bartlett on Friday, leaving, the runner-up, I am Maximus, to carry the flag. He would have to improve greatly off 134.
Journey With Me’s form is below the top three but he’s won four in a row and ‘could be anything’ for last year’s winning Bob Olinger combination.
BRAVE MAN CLAIMS 1-2-3
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Brown Advisory Novices Chase, ex-RSA)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Bravemansgame 164, Fury Road 160, L’Homme Presse 159.
FORTUNE COOKIES: Bravemansgame, Farouk D’Alene, L’Homme Presse
ANTE-POST BETDAQ Farouk D’Alene 21.0
FORM: Nicky Henderson Might Bite (2017) again in this but I’ve had my Bobs Worth (2012) against him; Dusart needs to find a stone.
The snag with a huge list of entries that become smallish fields is you either have nothing left or nearly 40% of the field as I have done in this. At least I’ve got another big BETDAQ offer among them.
I couldn’t have Ahoy Senor after Bravemansgame slammed him more than seven lengths at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Farouk D’Alene beat Beacon Edge in the Ten Up at Navan, with the Beacon not jumping well enough for Cheltenham but better off at the weights. L’Homme Presse hasn’t beaten very much but his jumping has been superb and he clearly loves the game.
LAYS LOGIC: Four hot favourites have won (4-7) and I’ve got the 1-2-3 in my Fortune Cookies (famous last words). So no lay.
ROAD LAID OUT FOR THIS
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Coral Cup)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 9)
ANTE-POST Grand Roi 13.0
FORM: Gowel Road is the hidden horse, a stylish winner over the trip at Cheltenham already, but kept to 2m since, which – twice second – has cost him only 4lb. Rain would help.
His Cheltenham runner-up, Unexpected Party, is 11lb worse off and, through him, Garry Clermont also has something to find. He’s not bred to do so but cheekpieces might be a benefit.
Drop The Anchor’s stamina is in doubt; he has been best at 2m, but Saint Felicien is by the sire of Djakadam, Protektorat and even an Irish National winner, Burrows Saint.
As well as Saint Felicien, Gordon Elliott has the grey Indigo Breeze, a Martaline not yet allowed to show her stamina, and Grand Roi, said to have improved at home for cheekpieces.
McFabulous was a close runner-up in the Relkeel here on the New course at this sort of trip, giving 7lb to the winner, Stormy Ireland , who won the Mares’ Champion Hurdle at Punchestown last Spring but was only fourth in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham yesterday.
Camprond has been put away for this, hoping for a soundish surface and likely to get it. Owner J P McManus also has The Shunter, Drop The Anchor and Top Moon.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE: 7.8 Saint Felicien, 12.0 Gowel Road
LAYS LOGIC: 17 of the last 18 favourites have been beaten but the favourite’s odds could be too big today.
The Racing Post anoraks claim that, since 2010, only one horse has won at Cheltenham after running in a chase the last day: that seems to shunt last year’s Plate winner The Shunter into a siding.
IT’S SHISHKIN’S COURSE
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Chase)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 9th)
RATINGS: Shishkin 177, Chacun Pour Soi 176, Energumene 175, Nube Negra 168, Politologue 165.
FORTUNE COOKIES Trying to avoid a clash of the giants here by having too many Cookies I’ve end up without any.
FORM: I’ve left it to the handicapper and he rates last year’s Arkle winner, Shishkin (12 wins in a row, still standing) 2lb clear of the new kid on the block (but the same age), Energumene, because beaten narrowly in their first face-off, the Clarence House at Ascot in January.
This is Cheltenham, which favours Shishkin (at around evens this morning), but there are two previous Champion Chase winners in this field, Politologue and Put The Kettle on, to inject their style and try to confuse.
They are behind in the ratings now but old-timers aged 10 have won this, too (Special Tiara and Sprinter Sacre 2016-17), so you can’t leave out Chacun Pour Soi who, in fact, is second in on the official ratings.
ON GUARD, TIGER ROLL!
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Cross-Country)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 10)
RATINGS: Tiger Roll 161, Delta Work 160, Brahma Bull and Easysland 157
FORM This is Tiger Roll’s swansong at twice the age of J P McManus’s debutant Prengarde, impressive in France and now under the guidance of one-time king of the cross-country and banks scene, Enda Bolger.
I picked Tiger Roll for the first of his three cross-country wins at the festival and for his first of two Grand National triumphs, but he’s not had plain sailing in the constant tacking between going for a third National or not.
Horses aged 11+ had failed in 11 years out of 12, when Tiger Roll, the winner in both 2018 and 2019, broke that hoodoo and now tries for a fourth success aged 12.
He was second in 2020 at 11-8 on favourite when the winner was McManus’s Easysland, who was making it seven wins in a row on his CV. But Prengarde means ‘watch out’; so on guard, Tiger Roll!
BETDAQ value: 8.8 Prengarde
SKY: PIRATE OR AMARILLO
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, (Grand Annual Challenge Cup)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 9)
ANTE-POST 11.0 Amarillo Sky
LAYS LOGIC: Two favourites have won in this in the last 11 years with most winners have been enormous prices: 66-1, 40-1, 28-1, 20-1, but they will probably bet around 6-1 the field.
FORM: Embittered was favourite last year but fell, going easily though the stable was out of form.
The winner that day, Sky Pirate, has had some tough tasks since in Grade 2, against Shishkin for instance but remains 4lb higher.
Thyme White is 7lb better off with Amarillo Sky on their one two at Wincanon in November, separated by a length and a half. Botch wewnt up for this with last-day success.
NOT-SO-FACILE FAVOURITE
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Wednesday, March 9)
RATINGS: American Mike and Facile Vega 138, Viva Devito 128, Top Dog 127, Redemption Day 126.
FORTUNE COOKIE: Redemption Day
ANTE-POST 17.0 James’s Gate
FORM: Four of the top five rated are trained Willie Mullins. Different owners means that he runs them all.. and more!
Redemption Day hasn’t raced since winning at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting but the runner-up that day, Music Drive, and the collateral form, has been boosting the winner since.
But you could argue that’s also a boost for American Mike, since Music Drive is from the same stable.
American Mike, Madmansgame and James Gate all have bags of stamina and I’d expect them to make the others work hard for this.
LAYS LOGIC: If you think the cohort of Mullins runners means that he doesn’t have full faith in Facile Vega, then the obvious thing at the very short price is to lay it.
In fact, Closutton’s bumper winners in the decade have not been favourite but have started 85-40, 11-1, 16-1 and 25-1 (twice).
American Mike is also short and, if we are still waiting for a Gordon Elliott winner, I shall lay Mike, too.
A sprinkling of maiden hurdle winners preceded Cheltenham but Elliott sent out 14 losers – including two favourites – on the first day of the festival, with four of them that were 4-1 or shorter returning: 0022
DAQMAN’S FESTIVAL BETS
1.30 Cheltenham
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win STAGE STAR
ANTE-POST
BET 3pts win I AM MAXIMUS
BET 2.5pts win WHATDEAWANT
2.10 Cheltenham
FORTUNE COOKIES
BET 10pts win BRAVEMANSGAME
BET 10pts win L’HOMME PRESSE
ANTE-POST
BET 2.5pts win FAROUK D’ALENE
2.50 Cheltenham (2 x win-50 bull’s-eye bets, win 30)
BET (ante-post) 4pts win GRAND ROI
BET 4.5pts win GOWEL ROAD
BET 4.4pts win SAINT FELICIEN
3.30 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win SHISHKIN
4.10 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win PRENGARDE
4.50 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win AMARILLO SKY
5.30 Cheltenham
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win REDEMPTION DAY
BET 5pts win (ante-post) JAMES’S GATE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
