CHESTER CUP DAY TODAY: Here’s Chester, with its draw bias on a roundabout track which needs traffic-lights at the cutaway! The opening day features the Chester Cup. Just how much does a low draw count? Daqman’s headlines tell you:
FIVE OUT OF FIVE FROM STALLS 2 TO 5
MUKAYNIS A STRONG HORSE THIS SEASON
CONCORDE FOR ANOTHER IRISH WINNER
OAKS AND DERBY TESTS: How will today’s Cheshire Oaks, plus the Chester Vase and the BETDAQ Dee Stakes later in the week, tell us about the Derby and the Oaks. Daqman’s headlines tell you:
BETDAQ DEE STAKES IN CLASSIC PICTURE
MAYBE ANOTHER BECKETT OAKS DIAMOND
FIVE OUT OF FIVE FROM STALLS 2 TO 5
Watch the draw! A left-handed roundabout track, so tight that manoeuvring from the outfield is very tricky and costs several lengths, Chester is notorious for gifting races to the low stalls.
Last year on this day in the five races below 1m 4f 66yds, the results by gate number were 2, 2, 4, 5, 3. The phrase ‘may as well have stayed at home’ is often appropriate to losers from wide berths.
Worse than that, many of them do stay at home! They find an excuse (sorry, valid reason/vet’s certificate) not to take part, particularly in sprints with double-figure-plus fields.
For example, it may be a coincidence that the three non-runners in the 3.45 Boodles Diamond sprint of 2014 were drawn in stalls 14, 13 and 10 in a (depleted) field of 15.
The worst year recently in a sprints season at Chester was 2013 when there were 12 races on the Roodeye during the summer run over 5f or so with eight or more runners.
Of the three highest drawn in each, 16 out of 36 (that’s 44%) were withdrawn.
Stalls positions at the ‘off’ can even affect the shape and pace of the Chester Cup, despite a trip of more than two-and-a-quarter miles; and that affects the result.
In the last decade the best finishing position gained in the Cup by the highest four stalls was 6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 8th, won, 6th. Often going close, but just one winner in 10 years.
In that time, victory went to stalls 4, 11, 2, 13, 1, 5, 4, 11, 16, 1. So six out of 10 from the low five stalls.
BETDAQ DEE STAKES IN CLASSIC PICTURE
Dee briefing! Though Friday’s Dee Stakes, now sponsored by BETDAQ, was dropped from Group-3 level two years ago, the Listed alternative immediately produced the runner-up in the Irish Derby.
That followed on its recent resurgence, in which one winner went on to score in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and another was third in the Epsom Derby.
Had it not been well supported by Aidan O’Brien (Ruler Of The World and Treasure Beach), the Group-3 Chester Vase on Thursday would have fared much worse. So very much depends on Ballydoyle.
In fact, O’Brien has six left in the BETDAQ Dee Stakes this week, with the obvious concern that they don’t race against his own Epsom Derby favourite, US Army Ranger, in the Vase.
So we could get the Dee Stakes biggest field for many a year, with 19 currently left in, and those trainers whose colts need a bit of cut in the ground anxious to run in the hope that the Roodeye holds some give until then.
The forecast is for warm, dry weather for the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday and the Dante Stakes at York next week, so both could be run on a sound surface.
US Army Ranger is being quoted at 4-9 for the Vase and is expected to reduce the field to a four or five runners, including his own pacemaker. Midterm is around 5-4 for the Dante.
Best to wait for BETDAQ offers on the day, in a market which will be punter-friendly, adding up to a smaller overround. That’s the only certainty of this cat-and-mouse game in the trials.
KNIGHT COPPER-BOTTOMED AFTER BOOST
2.10 Chester (Lily Agnes Stakes) One winner but four losers have come out of Fiery Character’s winning debut maiden at the Craven meeting, and she’s a filly against the colts (and geldings).
On the other hand, Copper Knight (3.6 in the BETDAQ orange as I write), was less than a length behind Tomiiy at Newmarket, getting a big boost when Tomily won six lengths at Bath yesterday
Copper Knight then ran green or would have won when runner-up at Windsor, with Awesome Alan finishing only third.
Nottingham winner Letmestopyouthere had been last of 11 at Wolverhampton to Sutter County, who won the Newmarket race in which Copper Knight was fourth.
MAYBE ANOTHER BECKETT OAKS DIAMOND
2.40 Chester (Cheshire Oaks) Aiden O’Brien has won this in the decade with a subsequent Oaks second and fourth but two others successful for him were not up to that standard.
His contender today, Somehow, is a daughter of Ballydoyle’s Alexandrova, winner of the English and Irish Oaks.
Diamonds Pour Moi runs here for a bit of cut in the ground, rather than wait for the likely sounder surface in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on Saturday.
Look Here, Talent and Simple Verse have been filly superstars for ‘Diamonds’ trainer, Ralph Beckett, who has won the Lingfield Oaks Trial three times in eight years.
I have backed his last three winners, and Diamonds Pour Moi was a first-rate win-and-place bet at 9.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, second in the market behind Somehow and likely they will share the top two positions in the race.
But Diamonds Pour Moi as a better price for a place, with three chances of a return, than Somehow is for the win.
CONCORDE FOR ANOTHER IRISH WINNER
3.10 Chester Cup Tony Martin, who finally bagged a big race in the jumps season at Punchestown last week, sends out of his Galway Hurdle winner of 2015, Quick Jack, pipped at the post for this Chester Cup last season by the subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner.
Jack is aiming at the same two targets again but has a setback in this one, drawn 16. I can see his late run getting a place without winning.
And stablemate Heartbreak City, a big fancy for the Cesarewicth last backenbed, has been severely punished by the handicapper for winning a Cork handicap 12 lengths.
In fact, Silver Concorde – three from four on the Flat – was backed this morning to be best of the Irish for Dermot Weld.
Weld has made a checquered start to the season but Concorde, the Irish November Handicap winner, is best when fresh (has won three times after long absences).
The Koukash-Fahey quartet have Duke Of Clarence best placed in the draw but he has failed twice in this before now.
Gabrial The Hero has thus far preferred fast ground. Gabrial’s King was fourth in this last year but also has a wide draw, out on the castle ramparts.
I can see No Heretic taking them along but, at eight years old, it’s not easy to also see him quickening again from the front, as he tried in the Goodwood Cup of 2013.
Don McCain had back-to-back success in this (2011-12) but William Of Orange has a bad draw and Venue hasn’t scored on the Flat since 2013.
Steve Rogers looks the obvious bet, an improver, a recent winner well drawn but you have to take less than 7-2 in this rough-and-tumble race. I shall rely on Silver Concorde (9.8), with a saver on Steve Rogers.
MUKAYNIS A STRONG HORSE THIS SEASON
3.45 Chester Marwan Koukash and Richard Fahey, who win this last year with today’s 12.0 BETDAQ offer Lexi’s Hero from stall 4, have Growl gifted the same stall today.
But it will need all of Paul Hanagan’s powers of persuasion to win this, with Growl’s only success coming first time in his maiden, way back in July, 2014. That’s always a bad sign.
Growl, who ran in top company last Spring, has changed stables and Fahey seems to have got it right, dropping him back to 5f.
But, oddly enough, stall 8 might benefit Lexi. Though he came out of gate 4, he was knocked back last year, which seemed to suit his late run.
Mukaynis (7.6 on BETDAQ) is likely to get off the grid fast, and his recent Kempton run will have brought him on. Kevin Ryan, a master trainer of sprinters, reports that he is a stronger horse this year.
Tom Dascombe has two well drawn: CD-winner Roudee would be an appropriate winner but is up in the handicap and probably needs it even softer; Seve broke his maiden here but has been disappointing.
MULK A LAY AFTER WOOD DITTON FLOPS
4.55 Chester Remember my facts and figures on the benefits of following the Wood Ditton Stakes losers (see Archive). Mulk represents the race today. He was second.
But the signs are not good this year. The winner, Sky Kingdom, was only third, beaten favourite, on his second run.
The fourth, Heart Of Lions, was fourth again next time, another beaten favourite.
Then on Monday, a third favourite to come out of the race, the wayward Western Prince – he almost ran out, fighting his jockey away from the action at Windsor – trailed in last but one of 13.
If you oppose Mulk, you have Derby entry Exoteric and the Marwan Koukash runner, Monaco Rose, on your side.
The lay in the BETDAQ green was 5-2 on when the market had settled down. Could Mulk become the fourth consecutive losing favourite from the Wood Ditton? It’s worth a bet.
On the evidence, I certainly have to disagree with the Racing Post Spotlight, which claims that (the) Wood Ditton.. looked ‘a decent renewal.’ Mulk may win but you lose ‘nothing’ opposing him. I’ll have a pound on Exoteric at 4.4.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points, except the Bull’s Eye Bet)
BET 7.6pts win COPPER KNIGHT (2.10 Chester)
BET 2.5pts win and place DIAMONDS POUR MOI (2.40 Chester)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5.6pts win SILVER CONCORDE and (to win 20) 5.7pts win STEVE ROGERS (3.10 Chester)
BET 3pts win (nap) MUKAYNIS, and 1.8pts win and place LEXI’S HERO (3.45 Chester)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts MULK and 6pts win EXOTERIC (4.55 Chester)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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