10 DAQMAN BANKERS UP OUT OF 12: There were eight straight bankers in that amazing Daqman sequence of 15 winning naps from 18 selections, which included 5-1 and 6-1 winners. Yesterday Lamb Or Cod made it 10 maximum-stakes bets up from the last 12:
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT
WON 1-1 TOORMORE
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN
WON 1-1 LITTLE BIG MAN
WON 4-5 ARCTIC FIRE
2nd 7-4 Integral
0 7-4 Grasped
WON 2-13 MAGICIAN
WON 8-11 LAMB OR COD
ON THE CLASSIC TRAIL: CHESTER: Daqman, who also had Macs Superstar (WON 5-1) yesterday, and who tipped the 1,000 Guineas winner, Miss France (WON 7-1), is back on the Derby and Oaks Classics trail this week, checking out the Chester trials.
1.45 Chester (Lily Agnes) It’s Roudee on the Roodeye! Tom Dascombe is 1201 in this, and the ‘duck-egg’ was only because that year he saddled a big horse out in stall 7 which couldn’t cope with the bend.
Roudee, who has fast sprinting blood, looked professional in his winning debut and the second and fourth have both won since. He will need to get a good early position from stall 9 but the same jockey managed it last year to score from stall 8.
Roudee is penalized for winning an ordinary maiden but that extra weight has been carried twice in this in the decade. Mukhmal has a 9lb penalty because he won a class 2, and that’s been carried just the once.
Fillies have won the last twice and David Evans, who scored with the very smart Star Rover in 2009, has spotted the opening, saddling both Charlie’s Star and Cheerio Sweetie in receipt of a stone from Mukhmal.
2.15 Chester (Cheshire Oaks) Banoffee was a big Oaks disappointment after winning this last year; in fact, she didn’t go on from there; never won another race.
But Light Shift (2007) won at Epsom and Wonder Of Wonders (2011) was second in the big one for Aidan O’Brien, who has form figures in this trial of 11012.
The Galileo filly (what else) Terrific won in first-time blinkers at The Curragh last summer and they are back on here after her reappearance defeat at Navan.
I’m not keen on Classic fillies wearing aids (Anipa in the hood is only a class-5 winner), though I shan’t lay Terrific at the morning BETDAQ offers. It looks such an open market that, should she win, she will knock out the profit of maybe three successful recent lays. No deal.
‘Anything’ can win these trials but a good indication is a stable that’s already winning second-season Pattern races. I give you John Gosden, who landed the Pretty Polly at Newmarket with Taghrooda, very heavily backed.
His New Appropach filly, Bright Approach, who quickened up really well when she won at Newbury, may find Psychometry the biggest threat, with her last two races massively franked by winners since.
2.45 Chester Cup This has been won by leading hurdlers from Sea Pigeon (champion) to Top Cees (County Hurdle) and Overturn (Galway Hurdle and, subsequently, the Fighting Fifth).
But it’s a below-par field this year. Whereas we’ve had the equivalent of a 97 winning off 9st., such a weight corresponds to only a 90 on today’s card.
Stalls 1, 2, 4 and 5 have won four years out of the last five and, with that quality missing, I doubt there’s a power horse capable of making a surge up the straight from a bad position.
And the low draw looks particularly strong: Paul Hanagan’s on Pitman’s Derby third, Mubaraza, though I just wonder if this track is right for him. Chester lover Communicator, third in the Group 3 Ormonde here, is claimed off by Oisin Murphy.
Marwan Koukash has secured Ryan Moore for the consistent but hard to win with Suegioo (stall 4), whose trainer reckons he’s better on a galloping track.
Montaser (out of the frame three times at Chester), Duke Of Clarence (so far, class 3 at best), Gabrial’s King (Chester form of 234222) and Angel Gabrial (a come-from-behind horse who beat Mubaraza 11 days ago) are all running for Team Koukash.
In the end I’ve gone for Communicator (10.0 on BETDAQ), whose form is disguised, as his last four runs have been on AW – at least that gives him a fitness edge – and he has a poor win strike-rate
But he is a different horse at Chester, where his form is 1234. He’s also been second to Josses Hill in a hurdle and fifth in the November Handicap.
Older horses do well in this bruising Palio of a horserace – five of the last six winners have been aged six and seven – but the other older horse, Body Language, usually needs a run back and the stable is 0-17 on turf this year.
3.15 Chester Results by draw in the decade – 4, 6, 2, 6, 7, 4, 3, 7, 2, 3 – suggest that horses in double-figure stalls may as well stay home.
Some trainers have thought so over the years in big-field Chester sprints and, once the draw has been published, have withdrawn their runners (following the correct procedure, of course; did I say otherwise).
If you also delete ‘the coffin box’ (stall 1), as looks even more feasible this year, since the top weight is ensconced there, you have a six-horse race.
Form and stats are not rocket science: the race is not always to the swift, nor to the strong (thankyou Damon; they should have called you Matt). But it’s the only way to bet.
A high stall may win but not with my money on it. Unfortunately, most punters feel the same and the first five in the BETDAQ market this morning are among the first seven in the draw.
But – vive la difference – that BETDAQ market, in the beautiful glow of the orange, is only 104% in total this morning if you translate all the odds into percentages.
Compare that with the 125% and 123% Total SPs that the bookmakers have managed to foist upon us, if we had foolishly bet at SP in this race over the last two seasons.
So, heh folks, you’re betting on only half the field in a punter-friendly 104%! In fact, the first seven horses are, of course, in underround (100-74).
If the stats don’t work out, they will in another Chester sprint. That’s the beauty of betting at this May meeting (the draw doesn’t remain so biased later in the year; and they keep putting things in, like cutaways in the rails; it feels like they just want to spoil the punters’ edge).
Of the draw pick, Sir Maximilian, Go Nani and Top Boy have won only in class 4, and Caspian Prince needs cut.
For me, then, it must be Ballista (8.4 this morning), another disguised – but fit – from an AW campaign, and a conditions-race winner at Chester at the same May meeting a year ago.
3.50 Chester It’s a half-life fact that Sir Michael Stoute does well in this, but very relevant that John Gosden’s form in the race is 11211. His Sea The Stars colt, Prince Of Stars, is the buzz.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win and place ROUDEE (1.45 Chester)
BET 8pts win BRIGHT APPROACH and 3pts win PSYCHOMETRY (2.15 Chester)
BET 2pts win and place COMMUNICATOR (2.45 Chester)
BET 2.7pts win BALLISTA (3.15 Chester)
BET 10pts win (nap) PRINCE OF STARS (3.50 Chester)
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