BACK-TO-BACK NAPS UP! Daqman has landed back to back naps this week, his third in five days, all odds against. Let’s have More of the same!
WON 5-4 COOLEENYMORE (Tuesday nap)
WON 5-4 SHE’S GOT BOTTLE (Monday nap)
WON 2-1 PHOENIX PASSION (Friday nap)
CHESTER CLASSIC TRIALS: Back to the Classic trials and the draw bias at Chester. Can you trust it? The race is not always to the low stalls but that’s the only way to bet!
EXPONISTA IS HIGHLY REGARDED
⭕ 1.30 Chester (6f 3yo) Results by stall (winners over 10 seasons): 2, 9, 9, 5, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 1. The two in stalls higher than 5 won (from gate 9) on soft ground. Today’s going is good.
Beyond Borders (1) was a class 4 winner last season for a stable in form. Old Chums (2) is consistent and trained by Tom Dascombe, who used to be local down the road at Malpas in the Manor House Stables, where Hugo Palmer is the new master.
Palmer, who has established a 23% strike rate since taking over Manor House, saddles Auric (8) for the new world snooker champion, Kyren Wilson, but reckons he needs further.
Call Glory (3) scored over the minimum 5f for first Jack Channon then Charles Hills but has been placed without winning for Michael Appleby, so gelded.
Was it the drop in class or the heavy ground that brought Stash The Cash (4) success the last day (or both)?
I prefer a bit of BETDAQ 45.0 win and place Exponista (5), who is clearly highly regarded, tried at Group 3 and Listed level after breaking her maiden comfortably at Nottingham in August, making all the running.
FORM POINTS TO FLICKA’S GIRL
⭕ 2.05 Chester (5f 2yo Lily Agnes Stakes) This class 2 has gone to stalls 1 to 5 in the last eight renewals, as follows: 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1. It helps if your horse is favourite (4-8) or at most 6-1 in the market; no outsiders.
I am not an Ed Dunlop fan but don’t let me stop you backing Lady Lightning, the Wolverhampton winner who comes out of the one stall today.
Daisy In The Breeze (3) and Sir Geoff Morgan (2), another Dascombe runner, were one-two, pulling clear, at a fast track, Brighton, a week ago.
Flicka’s Girl (4), a Wolverhampton winner, ran fourth at Bath to one who stepped up to class 3 at Salisbury and beat a previous scorer.
Kodibeat (5) ran fast to take a novice race at Kempton, and was then put away for this, but the runner-up at Kempton was well behind Flicka’s Girl in that Bath race, so ‘Flicka’ looks value at 8.2.
STAR QUALITY IN FOREST FAIRY
⭕ 3.05 Chester (Cheshire Oaks) Joseph O’Brien’s Galileo Dame has run only on heavy. She won a Leopardstown fillies’ maiden from Aidan’s Rubies Are Red, a withdrawal this morning because of the drying ground.
Ralph Beckett’s Forest Fairy was a six-length winner on her debut at Wolverhampton, eased right down but with the runner-up scoring next time.
The daughter of an Arc winner cost only €78,000 as a yearling and this will decide whether she goes for the Oaks at Epsom or the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. BETDAQ 3.7 taken.
SOUTHWELL FORM IS LAW AGAIN
⭕ 3.40 Chester (Chester Vase) Derby winners Ruler Of The World (2013 Vase) and Wings Of Eagles (2017 runner-up) came from this trial but it also produced a colossal flop in 4-11 favourite, US Army Ranger (2016), who never won another race.
Last year’s Vase scorer, Arrest, was 4-1 Derby favourite but also flopped in 10th at Epsom.
Aidan O’Brien trained all four of those colts, and the questions pile high today: can he win this afternoon with Agenda or Grosvenor Square? Will one emerge as ruler of the world, or will he be stripped of his Chester medal at Epsom?
O’Brien’s current mediocre score is 3-23 in Ireland, 0-8 in England, so confidence is low and offers, therefore, too short.
Fresh in the mind is the car-crash performance of odds-on City Of Troy in the Guineas but, such is the O’Brien charisma that some punters have forgiven ‘Troy’ already and his Epsom odds have been cut.
Six Vase winners in 10 years have come out of stalls 2 and 3 but the one stall remains as tricky as ever, the get-go or the speed trap?
The Beresford third, Grosvenor Square, half-brother to Irish Derby winner, Santiago, is right there in one, under Mr Cool, Ryan Moore.
Next door, Godolphin hold-up horse Hidden Law (2) is meat in the sandwich between Grosvenor Square and Agenda, who is not entered at Epsom but could enhance his Curragh Derby prospects.
Hidden Law’s form would not have had a second glance before the AW successes in the Guineas, but his second at Southwell to Cadogan Place could be the key to this trial.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 9.3 Cadogan Place has been a big drifter this morning in the expectation that Hidden Law (3.15) can turn around the form. I can’t take Grosvenor Square (2.86) or Agenda (5.6) until Ballydoyle finds some form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Chester (win-50 total)
BULL’S-EYE BET 1pt win and place EXPONISTA
2.05 Chester (win 14)
BET 2pts win FLICKA’S GIRL
3.05 Chester (win 12, nap)
BET 4.4pts win FOREST FAIRY
3.40 Chester (win 10)
BET 5pts win HIDDEN LAW
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