DAQMAN WINNING NAP WAS 3.3: Daqman had recently been finding a winning nap elusive.. until yesterday when Elusive Hawk (WON 5-4 from 3.3 morning offers on BETDAQ) swooped to score an AW win on the sand at Southwell.
BETDAQ SPECIAL AT DONCASTER: Today Daqman’s special race-by-race analysis of five consecutive BETDAQ-sponsored races at Doncaster picks up on the stats, the shape of each race, the form, his verdict and the morning offers.
The Betdaq card is a Grand National guide. Nicky Henderson uses the veterans’ chase (3.25) and the 3m handicap hurdle (3.55) as Aintree prep runs for Burton Port and Shakalakaboomboom respectively.
1.45 Doncaster (Betdaq 3% Commission Novices’ Hurdle)
STATS: The two winners of this, both trained Nicky Henderson, both carried class 4 or 5 penalties (11st 8lb) and started favourite, either after winning the previous start or running in a Graded hurdle.
SHAPE OF THE RACE: Last year’s pacesetter failed by only a short-head to hold on, and Master Dee bossed his bumper at Sedgefield last time, though this is his first hurdle race. Stellar Notion also likes to be up with the pace.
In The Rough has so far raced from behind, staying on as if he needs a handicap and further to travel. Spiculas, related to an Irish Grand National winner, may also need a distance of ground.
FORM: The 11 horses behind Stellar Notion in his successful races have all failed to win a hurdle before or since. Rhapando showed up well on his timber debut behind the classy Vaniteux at Sandown. Master Dee and Master Malt ‘could be anything’ after good form in bumpers.
VERDICT: Stellar Notion and Master Dee could open up a gap on these. Market factors should help you choose the lesser of two vulnerabilities: Stellar Notion gives away weight and, though a dual winner, has less-than-solid form. If setting the pace, Master Dee may not resist attacks from behind.
MARKET: With Stellar Notion tips on, Master Dee was a big offer at 7.8 BETDAQ to get in the wallet this morning, enabling me to play market changes later on. Others were too easy to back, with In The Rough a lonely dog on a raft at more than double his forecast price.
2.20 Doncaster (Betdaq No Premium Charge Novices’ Chase)
STATS Nicky Henderson won this with a chasing debutant last season and his Top Of The Range won first time, too.
SHAPE OF THE RACE: Top Of The Range made most of the running in a small field at Ascot. Though he again has only a handful of rivals, he is trying 3m for the first time, and the shape of the race may hang on whether he will accept restraint. He may be a reluctant leader here and, as such, looks vulnerable.
Victor Hewgo likes to come late on the scene and Holywell is a hold-up stayer. Firm Order has been reluctant to start and waits at the back but he returns to novice company and cheekpieces are applied.
FORM: Holywell had Top Of The Range a long way behind when he won the Pertemps Hurdles Final at the Cheltenham Festival and he was second to Solwhit in the Liverppool Hurdle.
VERDICT: Holywell got off the mark over fences at the fourth time of asking, and has a couple of Cheltenham festival entries (RSA and NH Chase).
McCoy can wait on Geraghty and enhance Holywell’s festival prospects. In fact, Victor Hewgo may be a bigger danger. He is on the upgrade over fences but Holywell is a two-years-younger horse with proven class who has been crying out for this trip as a chaser..
MARKET: I’m convinced that Holywell is a banker at a shade of odds against. If Top of The Range leads, the favourite will shorten in running. Victor Hewgo, 3.6 this morning, would be a bet a point or two bigger, but I can’t see him getting to Holywell and McCoy, with the trip in their favour.
2.50 Doncaster (Betdaq Free Premier League Game Saturday Juvenile Hurdle)
STATS Again, the only penalised winner (with 11st 5lb) in five years of this contest was trained by Henderson. Alan King won it four years back with a horse with similar form to Ronaldhino.
SHAPE OF THE RACE: First-time blinkers may light up Mahican. Zamoyski led early but ran flat at Market Rasen. Pearl Castle travelled strongly throughout when winning over CD a month or so ago. Ronaldhino, who led at several stages at Newbury, accepted restraint at Cheltyenham.
FORM: Dual Flat winner Pearl Castle was impressive over hurdles over CD in late January. Ronaldhino drops back to juvenile class after running well in a conditions race and a Graded hurdle. Big chance on better ground here.
She’s Late does not wear the cheekpieces that brought him a 12f victory on the Flat at Windsor. Probably needs further but the better ground helps.
VERDICT: Triumph Hurdle contender Pearl Castle is odds on this morning after a 16-length rout of a novice field over CD but the only winner in that field was a stable companion and he now has to give 7lb to Ronaldhino, who looks much better than the bare form and is top rated by the Racing Post.
MARKET: I could get a ‘too big’ 6.8 Ronaldhino on BETDAQ this morning, intending to save on Pearl Castle with a similar stake.
3.25 Doncaster (Betdaq £25 No Lose Mobile Bet Doncaster Veterans’ Handicap Chase)
STATS Neither top nor bottom of the handicap fare well: a 10-year-old with a middleweight has been the solution. Look for a horse with Graded-race form.
SHAPE OF THE RACE: Massini’s Maguire, Time For Rupert and Fruity O’Rooney go with the pace. ‘Fruity’ has won at this trip only when two horses racing with him both fell.
Aaachen can be handy. Big Fella Thanks used to lie up, but has hunted round at the back on heavy and over the Grand National fences. Tranquil Sea and Burton Port can get behind and could be much bigger in running.
FORM: Aachen is 0004 at this kind of trip. Back to form latest but that was only his second win in five years. Burton Port hasn’t won for nearly four years and hasn’t finished nearer than 51 lengths off the winner in his last four starts since April 2012.
But Davy Russell makes a one-off trip to ride and the stable is capable of injecting new life into its old boys.
Tranquil Sea, Son of Flicka, McMurrough and Aachen have never won at this 3m but Son of Flicka, a winner of the Coral Cup over hurdles, ran well in only his third chase at 3m 2f last time out, a nice confidence booster for his jumping round here today.
VERDICT: It’s anybody’s guess which of the old boys can take advantage of their drop in the ratings: Big Fella Thanks down 9lb and Tranquil Sea 12lb this season; Burton Port 13lb since November, Time For Rupert 16lb since December.
MARKET: If, as I suspect, this is a slow-run race, Son of Flicka, who has come late to fences and has his ground today, could make his light weight and stamina tell, and the one-time 3m hurdle winner at the Cheltenham festival seems to have a bit of speed left in his frame: 13.0 ON BETDAQ this morning in a 105% list of offers.
3.55 Doncaster (Betdaq £500 In Free Bets Handicap Hurdle)
STATS The favourite has never won this in all seven seasons of the race, and the last three years have seen success for 10-1 and 20-1 shots and a 28-1 outsider for Jonjo O’Neill.
SHAPE OF THE RACE: Potters Cross leads or is a van runner, and Grand national preppie Shakalakaboomboom likes to see daylight. Both could be shorter in running.
Lookout Mountain dominated a field at Huntingdon in November but is still 20lb higher and has been hunted round in the rear since then.
FORM: Better ground suits Matthew Riley, second in this grade at Haydock, though the form has taken some knocks. The sounder surface was the making of Kaysersberg, impressive despite the small field over CD in January.
Dundee and Potters Cross have yet to step out of the novice ranks. The same applies to Make Me A Fortune but, like Dundee, he has been crying out for this step up in trip.
VERDICT: The bottom two are worth a punt. The in-form Steve Gollings, who books a decent jockey when the chips are down, has Daryl Jacob aboard Make Me A Fortune at 22.0 on BETDAQ.
Alan King’s horses are just now recovering their form and Dundee (8.0 as I write) is better than the bare results, with the step up to 3m certain to suit.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win on each MASTER DEE and (stakes saver) STELLAR NOTION (1.45 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 20pts win HOLYWELL (2.20 Doncaster)
BET 3.5pts win RONALDHINO and 5pts win (stakes saver) PEARL CASTLE (2.50 Doncaster)
PLACE LAY: 10pts AACHEN and BET 1.6pts win and place SON OF FLICKA (3.25 Doncaster)
BET 3pts win DUNDEE, and 1pt win and place (Outsider Of The Day) MAKE ME A FORTUNE (3.55 Doncaster)
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