KERRY NATIONAL BULL’S-EYE BID: The Grand Nationals season starts at Listowel while the St Leger meeting is launched at Doncaster. Daqman goes for bull’s-eye bets in the Kerry National, opposing Pricewise with the scores 71-15 to Daqman. His nap is at Doncaster.
FRANKIE’S CHANCE FOR ‘ME’ AND YOU
3.20 Doncaster I’d rather have jumpers in the mud a Listowel than two-year-olds in a slog at Donny, so I shall swerve the opening races of the St Leger meeting, and start with a bet on Thesme in this Listed.
Hot favourite Final Venture has won on soft, and he’s been keeping company like Take Cover, Marsha, Lady Aurelia and Battaash. Some of his opponents today will seem like old Fords to alongside an F1 car, but there can always be something unusual with sprints.
The unusual is Frankie Dettori’s forte. And, though Thesme’s form figures of 323220020033 – not a single bouquet in more than two years – are offputting, in fact she is 12lb better off with Desert Law for less than two lengths at York and, on Beverley form, Desert Law is only about a length off Final Venture. Come on, Frankie!
3.50 Doncaster (Leger Legends) Some great names from the good old bad old days but gives me a punting shudder like the Shergar Cup. For pinstickers only.
4.20 Doncaster High Acclaim beat Pillar Of Society at Sandown but was behind Lahore over shorter at Windsor. Lahore is very lightly raced and gets weight from all the leading protagonists.
All depends on whether a 10lb race stops Important Mission, and whether he will enjoy the switch from AW. Those ‘ifs’ suggest we side with Lahore until we know better.
MUD MAY SUIT THE LONE BENGALA
2.05 Listowel Layers will be wary of Butoolat, a hidden horse, better than the bare form, for a trainer who won this two years back, though the ground is a worry.
Winningmost stable in the race is the Curragh outfit of Paul Deegan, who has taken the prize three times since 2007. His Cracking Name has just hit for, and he’s scored on the soft but has been raised 11lb.
Camiyra (Johnny Murrtagh doing well right now) and Greenpanda, are both wearing cheekpieces first time and both likely to enjoy deep ground. I like Camiyra exchanging at 8.6 this morning.
Ojinjintka loves the ground and responded really well to the cheekpieces at Killarney on the last day but was behind Texas Katie and Camiyra at Roscommon since.
3.05 Listowel Dermot Weld had two Group winners in two days at the weekend and Zawraq lays down the gauntlet to Willie Mullins’ Riven Light in this Listed. But the only three-year-old runner, a filly to be saddled by John Oxx, is interesting.
Bengala has been tried from the front, tried from the rear, her education including Enable’s Irish Oaks, running on ground far too fast for a daughter of Pivotal. Very lightly raced and could be a surprise packet here in the mud at 11.5 (saver Riven Light).
DAVY TO HIT BACK IN THE NATIONAL
4.05 Listowel (Kerry National) Will there ever be a Kerry National like the one in 2015? Mouse Morris horses which finished first and third – Rogue Angel and Rule The World – went on to win the 2016 Grand Nationals of Fairyhouse and Aintree the following Spring with this column on them at 34.0 and 50.0 on BETDAQ.
So the sleuth in every punter who loves his Nationals starts here (there are 23 Nationals to come before the end of the season) on the trail of the big-hearted, big jumping potential of guts and stamina that’s needed in a grand stayer.
In this one, last year’s winning team of Gordon Elliott and Lisa O’Neill combine with a former Willie Mullins seven-year-old, Potters Point (Gigginstown owned), who has been out of the frame only once in 13 completed starts.
He’s positioned in this handicap in a near-perfect slot, with 17 of the 20 winners of the race aged seven, eight or nine, the last five carrying 10st 4lb or less.
Bay of Freedom and King Leon, last seen in a hurdle race at the Galway Festival, appears to have been laid out for today on behalf of J P McManus, though the stable has another ex-Mullins for Gigginstown in Arkrisht, a Grade-1 hurdler who has just won a beginners’ chase.
Another from the yard, Slowmotion, has some of the best form, placed in the mares’ chase at the Punchestown Festival and at Ballybrit in the Galway Plate. Also owned J P McManus, but five is very young for this slog.
Fourth in the Plate was another Gordon Elliott, A Toi Phil, who has scored four times since moving from Willie Mullins, including the Leopardstown Chase, yet is only 2lb higher than when winning the Webster Cup at Navan in March.
Mullins saddles only the disappointing Arbre De Vie, finally off the mark in his eighth chase, when only four finished at Galway. Kylecrue has won six chases but never beyond 2m 4f.
In fact, the snag with all of this analysis is that it is mainly not about 3m but about races over shorter. The only winners over today’s trip are Road To Riches, Shanpallas, Viva Steve and, as I say, King Leon. But the snag is the ground, as it is for Tempestatefloresco.
He is the real stayer of the race, surely, after taking the Uttoxeter Summer Cup (3m 2f) to complete a hat-trick but he has no form on ‘soft’ or worse. King Leon on soft: 30PUP. Potters Point 3333.
GROUND POSITIVES: A Toi Phil: 2R11101. Arbre De Vie: 3114222201. Arkwrisht: 12104U00. Bay Of Freedom: 11P. Bentelimar: 30113202020331. Slowmotion: 212F112.
Lord Scoundrel: 34043341223312F. Road To Riches: 1101P4131220. Stellar Notion: 10P03. Viva Steve: 4104220010.
VERDICT: Not to put too fine a point on it, Davy Russell would be delighted if he could give his critics a slap in the face by winning this with A Toi Phil (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning).
Stellar Notion and Viva Steve (11.0) have both been tried over long distances Both have light weights. Both go well fresh. Both yards are in good form. I just favour Steve in the mud.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 4pts win and place CAMIYRA (2.05 Listowel)
BET 2.75pts win and place BENGALA and 5pts win (stakes saver) RIVEN LIGHT (3.05 Listowel)
BET 12pts win (nap) THESME (3.20 Doncaster)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 6.5pts win A TOI PHIL, and 5pts win VIVA STEVE (4.05 Listowel)
BET 8pts win LAHORE (4.20 Doncaster)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
