BULL’S-EYE BETS FOR THE KERRY NATIONAL: Daqman launches the Doncaster St Leger meeting today before an analysis of the form and facts about the Kerry National at Listowel, which rates two win-50 bull’s-eye bets. The headlines:
🔹 LAZULI THE OPENING GEM AT DONNY
🔹 BRAVO! FAHEY BEST IN THE NURSERY
🔹 I’M TAKING EQUILATERAL’S SIDE..
🔹 PLACEBO LOOKS GOOD MEDICINE..
🔹 ALL THE ANSWERS AT BETDAQ 10.0
WINNING GAMBLE NO MYSTERY TO DAQMAN: Daqman latched on to a late gamble at Leicester yesterday, landing Sea Of Mystery (WON 3-1), which had morning 6.0 offers in the BETDAQ orange. It was his fifth return in three days. Here’s how the Daqman accounts stand:
Daqman 67, Pricewise 31 (678pts separate them to 10pts level stakes)
Bulls-eye naps (7-15) 46% (252 points profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (20-30) 66% (98pts profit to 20-point stakes)
LAZULI THE OPENING GEM AT DONNY
DONCASTER TRAINERS (St Leger meeting only): Saeed bin Suroor 14, John Gosden 13, Richard Fahey 9, William Haggas 9, Roger Varian 9, Richard Hannon 7, Aidan O’Brien 7, David Simcock 7, Sir Michael Stoute 6, Charles Hills 5, Mark Johnston 5, Ralph Beckett 4, Charlie Appleby 3, Brian Meehan 3, John Oxx 3, Paul Cole 3, James Fanshawe 3, Kevin Ryan 3, Hugo Palmer 3, Andrew Balding 2, David Barron 2, Karl Burke 2, Simon Crisford 2, Mick Channon 2, Clive Cox 2, Peter Chapple-Hyam 2, David Elsworth 2, Edward Lynam 2, David Marnane 2, Marcus Tregoning 2.
FAVOURITES 1.50 30%; 2.25 50%; 4.10 66%; 3.00, 3.35 and 4.45: 40% DRAW: 3.35 stalls 1 to 5 (50%). GOING: Good to firm (showers)
1.50 Doncaster (6f, 2yo) Charlie Appleby and Tom Dascombe (Brad The Brief) have both won this with an odds-on shot in the last five years.
Looking forward to the ride, William Buick described July Course winner Lazuli (Appleby), as ‘quick; a typical Dubawi.’ His debut form has been boosted.
Lampang’s turn of foot was lethal at Carlisle when disposing of Panic Room, a winner since. Misty Grey has experience at the highest level (Gimcrack, Norfolk Stakes).
BRAVO! FAHEY BEST IN THE NURSERY
2.25 Doncaster (7f nursery) Hariboux, a proper top-of-the-ground horse (quote unquote Hugo Palmer), keeps on improving but has to pay the penalty, giving away up to 20lb here.
Iffraaz is in and out (form 1010) and made no show in the Gimcrack; now Frankie Dettori tries to get a tune out of him.
Owney Madden likewise runs one good, one moderate race. Maybe Goodwood, and the ground, were both too quick for him in between wins at Newbury and York (where Hurstwood was well behind). Ethic was disappointing there in the Acomb Stakes.
Modern British Art beat nothing well at Bath. I’m talking about a two-year-old racehorse, not Boris Johnson’s unmade bed wheeled into the Tate Modern.
Richard Fahey’s Bravo Faisal is a tough Kodiac colt, unlucky when bumped at Newcastle not to make it two runs two wins on the course. Couldn’t cope with three Group horses here at Doncaster at level weights; no shame in that. BETDAQ 10.0 offers.
I’M TAKING EQUILATERAL’S SIDE..
3.00 Doncaster (5f Listed) Attacking early as usual, El Astronaute was beaten a head in this last year. Come-from-behind Duke of Firenze is neck and neck with Dark Shot on York form.
Tis Marvellous has been hot this summer in big fields at Ascot but his Doncaster form is 000. Behind Queens Gift in the Beverley Bullet after failing to get a clear run.
Three-year-olds won this three years running (2014-16) and Archer’s Dream, already a Listed winner, should find it easier than the York Group 3 on the last day.
My idea of the winner is Equilateral, who has taken on the likes of Mabs Cross, Blue Point and Invincible Army in the Pattern from Abernant to Palace House Stakes and Kings Stand. A winner and Listed third here at Doncaster. I asked for 4.0.
PLACEBO LOOKS GOOD MEDICINE..
3.35 Doncaster (Leger Legends Stakes) If you got a committee of bookmakers together to devise the trickiest race for punters, they might well decide on a field of 16 rated only 3lb apart and ridden by retired jockeys: I can’t wait to see the overround!
Try this for size: a horse aged three or four (7-9 say the stats), drawn low, winner last time out, trained and ridden by the man who knows him in his yard every day. It gives you that Placebo Effect: BETDAQ 38.0.
5.20 Doncaster Roundhay Park (BETDAQ 7.6 taken), a runner in the Portland here a year back rated 94, will run in this today off 76. Placed at this level on this course from a higher mark in June.
ALL THE ANSWERS AT BETDAQ 10.0
4.15 Listowel (Kerry National) Fourth and fifth last year, Dell’Arca and Shantou Village, and fifth the year before, A Toi Phil, are all three back for more, with A Toi Phil 7lb lower and equipped with first-time cheekpieces.
Dell’Arca is 6lb lower and reappears after wind surgery. Shantou Village hasn’t been seen since the Cheltenham festival but has won five times after a break and Robbie Power has been booked.
The market claims to have All The Answers! Jumped brilliantly at Ballybrit. Though the trip was only 2m 2f, and his dam’s side features 2m 4f winners, he should stay further, as a son of Kayf Tara, sire of such as Thistlecrack and Tea For Two.
His Galway winning jockey, hot claimer Darragh O’Keefe, opposes him today on Movewiththetimes, who will therefore get 9lb from All The Answers.
Movewiththetimes had completed only once in five starts, until scoring on the last day. Switched to Enda Bolger from Paul Nicholls, he had shown enough at home to make him joint favourite for the Galway Plate (fell early) and then got off the mark over fences at Killarney last month, often a springboard meeting for Listowel. Could be a stand-out, if he stands up!
Another Kayf Tara, Internal Transfer, is two out of two over fences for Eric McNamara, who is going for a record-breaking fourth Kerry National, which would cap a great revival for the Limerick yard.
Internal Transfer has jumping worries but his stablemate, reserve Black Scorpion, prepped at Killarney in the same race before he won at this meeting last year, needs one to come out.
Willie Mullins’ Pravalaguna also returned to form on the last day, after a hard race at Galway, fading on the run-in for the Plate. He’s the right age.
Willie always used to bring a young horse to this, and he won it with seven-year-olds in 2005-6. His other runners today, Yorkhill (now nine) and Some Neck, were one-two at Galway. Some Neck is the one he’s tried as a stayer (sixth in the Punchestown Grand National Trial).
The showers have come for Poker Party, a very decent novice who seemed to have got his jumping together until unseating in the Plate.
Gordon Elliott, who has won two of the last three Kerry Nationals with a claimer in the saddle, runs the mare Barra (Hugh Morgan 7lb), a final-fence faller with the (Kilbeggan) Midlands National ‘won’. Stablemate Ravenhill might have been placed in the Galway Plate but for jumping errors.
Verdict: Some well fancied here have jumping worries – Movewiththetimes – and Poker Party is a genius over fences at home but not always on the track.
Others have ground concerns: it was too soft for Shantou Village last year, and Black Scorpion may also prefer that there is no more rain, whereas the softer the better for Internal Transfer.
All The Answers could be a hidden horse, campaigned over shorter, faster trips to get him jumping well, but with a stamina-potent sire. Ravenhill is jumping better and posted notice for this when staying on in the Galway Plate. Both around 10.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 10pts win LAZULI
2.25 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place BRAVO FAISAL
3.00 Doncaster (win 30)
BET 10pts win (nap) EQUILATERAL
3.35 Doncaster (bull’s-eye bets to win 50 points)
BET 1.35pts win and place PLACEBO EFFECT
4.15 Listowel (bull’s-eye bets to win 50 points)
BET 5pts win ALL THE ANSWERS
BET 5pts win RAVENHILL
5.20 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 3pts win ROUNDHAY PARK
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