8-1 START TO THE CRAVEN MEETING: Daqman launched the Craven Meeting at Newmarket with four winning returns from five races yesterday, including an 8-1 outsider of five, for a profit on the day of 36 points:
WON 8-1 Thikriyaat (win and place)
WON 5-4 Nathra (win)
3rd 11-1 Golden Reign (place)
HE LANDS THE FIRST CLASSIC TRIAL: It took his score over Pricewise to 6-4 this season, 303-120 overall, with their clashes today in the 3.35 Cheltenham, and in the 3.55 and 4.30 Newmarket. Daqman’s score in the Classic trials is one from one (1-1) through Nathra in the Nell Gwyn Stakes. The next one is tomorrow’s Craven Stakes.
‘LOSERS CAN BE WINNERS’ SYSTEM: Stats and stable facts are only contributory but you need them on your side, and Daqman today explores two old-as-the-hills systems whereby losers become seemingly-guaranteed winners.
DOUBLE OF NAPS UNDER BOTH RULES: With Flat (turf) and Jumps overlapping during April, Daqman attempts a double of naps on appropriate days, one for each discipline. Starting today.
FOLLOW-THE-LOSERS GAME FOR BIG PROFIT
2.10 Newmarket (Wood Ditton Stakes) In the good old bad old days, you just put in a standing-order bet, stop at a winner, on the future races of all Wood Ditton losers and then sat back to wait for your winnings.
The idea fell out of favour after one or two poor Wood Dittons and, therefore, blank years with few or no winners from the losers (‘system doing well; send more money’).
I’ve just checked back and the ‘winners from losers’ Wood Ditton method seems to be on the rampage again.
In 2012, the first five home all won after the next three starts (I include the winner here because it was disqualified).
In 2013 second, third and fourth quickly found the winners’ enclosure and, the following year, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth were all winners.
In 2015, the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh all won one of their next few races.
John Gosden, my Mr Godsend, landed a hat-trick yesterday and has six runners on the second-day card, unfortunately making life difficult in this opener with three. Sir Michael Stoute has two.
The last time Gosden and Stoute fought out the finish, Gosden’s beat Stoute’s, but the runner-up that day was a slow learner called Harbinger, who would become one of Stoute’s great improvers, taking four Group races in a row the following season, culminating in the King George.
What lurks here today? Well, Muntahaa (hooded by Gosden) is by Harbinger’s sire and his dam was half-sister to a 1,000 Guineas winner.
Stoute’s Shraaoh, by Sea The Stars, is also related to Guineas winners on the dam’s side. Western Prince (another Gosden) is by Sea The Stars’ sire.
And the third Gosden is a 100,000-dollar first foal, Heart of Lions, who is being saddled for the boys in blue, Godolphin, winners of the race three times in the last five years.
I’ll have a silly pound on Heart Of Lions (9.4 BETDAQ offers early mouse) but I’ll be more interested in what is second, third, fourth, fifth.. won’t you!
MALIK LOOKS SET FOR THE YELLOW JERSEY
3.20 and 3.55 Newmarket (Free Handicap) I was telling you only yesterday how we needed to beef up the week and make it a moveable feast of Flat and jumps.
But, after three races which are simply not betting races – including the £100,000 Sprint (3.20) with just five runners – here we go again with a virtually obsolete race, the Free Handicap, which has now had only five or six runners for three years in succession.
Ibn Malik has been gelded and it will be interesting to see whether it’s shot him forward, as it did Gifted Master, who looks a hub for your Daq Multiples in the Sprint.
Punters usually know what’s going to win the Free, with five favourites up in the decade, and none of the 10 bigger than 11-2 SP.
Adventurous is likely to set them a target, and there may be trade possibilities, but he’s bred to be a middle-distance horse (related to hurdlers) and his early career smacks of instilling some speed into him.
Kachy looks a genuine speed horse but they have to test their limits at this time of year and he’s Group entered up to a mile. Ditto Raucous.
I’m napping to Ibn Malilk (4.4 in the BETDAQ orange this morning), simply because he looks the only 7f specialist in the race and it’s no surprise that Charles Hills nominates the Jersey Stakes for him.
4.30 Newmarket (Earl Of Sefton Stakes) One of John Gosden’s favourite races – form 11022213 – and he’s already in the money at the meeting with a hat-trick yesterday.
This is shorter than Mahsoob’s winning trips of last season but Gosden is obviouly banking on a strong pace in the wide open spaces of the heath, and is even talking about bringing him back to a mile.
I’d say that’s the confidence of a man in form, and 8.2 looks tasty in the BETDAQ orange offers.
Dutch Connection, who has been placed in a Group 1 at 7f, is another trying a new trip, this time stepping up. He needs the track to dry out.
Custom Cut likes to be up with the pace. His bid to win first time for the second year running was foiled at Doncaster by the appalling ground.
He’s a Group-2 Rowley Mile winner but faces late-developer Air Pilot, who stepped up 29lb from handicap company and got within three lengths or so of a Champion Stakes last season. He must have a favourite’s chance, primed for this with a racecourse gallop.
HEY, MISTER! HERE ARE MORE WINNING LOSERS
Follow the losers at.. Fill in the missing word (Cheltenham) or words (Royal Ascot) for what has been a reliable system over the years.
All stats, facts and figures, are only contributory to picking winners (and losers), but some – like the Wood Ditton scenario – can pan out year on year.
And it makes sense that big-meeting losers who were trained cherry-ripe to face the best of their generation are likely to pick up a consolation, dropped in class next time out.
1.50 Cheltenham The intriguing return to Cheltenham is by festival loser Mister Miyagi. After four consecutive wins over the minimum, Mister Miyagi ran sixth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, despite a long lay-off, finishing like a Douvan.
With next March in mind trainer Dan Skelton takes the earliest opportunity to see whether Miyagi can step up to today’s 2m 4f.
The snag with the exercise is that this is a mini-Neptune of eight winners of 22 races, including occasional front-runners Rock On Oscar, Whataknight and Never Equalled.
But the Supreme is usually a seam of pure gold, and it has already been mined successfully since March: the third and eighth horses home, Buveur d’Air and Petit Mouchoir, were first and second, eight lengths clear of Cheltenham winner, Limini, on the Friday of Aintree.
And Bellshill, though only 13 of 14 in the Supreme, was narrowly beaten in the Sefton (Grade 1) at Liverpool, with the rest 13 lengths in rear.
HANDICAP CREEPER HOBBS IN WISHFULL PLOT
3.35 Cheltenham (Silver Trophy) Backers usually get this one right, punishing the layers with eight winners out of 10 between 11-10 and 4-1.
Drying ground is against Tenor Nivernais, who in any case must overcome moderate recent stable form.
In fact, Venetia Williams has been missing strike badly, with form figures surrounding a sole success at Chepstow on Saturday which show a massive 17 in the first four without winning among 34 losers since the last day of March.
Wishfull Thinking hasn’t won since 2014 but has run some good races and the handicapper refuses to budge, with his rating higher than it was two Cheltenhams ago, despite his age.
Stabelmate Cloud Creeper benefits from his presence. Though also battling with the handicapper after a hat-trick completed a year ago, he is, in fact, well in, weight wise because of Wishfull Thinking’s compression of the handicap.
It’s the first time he’s carried around 10st 8lb since November, 2013. Trip, track and ground will suit.
The same can be said of Johns Spirit, but he is without a win since October, 2014, and hasn’t finished nearer than 23 lengths behind the winner in seven starts over the last year.
Voix d’Eau emerged from the novice stage with a smooth success at Doncaster in November but has been seen only once since something went wrong at Kempton in December. Has it to prove now.
Last year’s Grand Annual winner, Next Sensation, hasn’t dropped a pound for six lamentable efforts since. But Splash of Ginge has been allowed 8lb for nine poor attempts to repeat his success in a Grade 3 here more than 15 months back.
Art Mauresque was a good sixth in the PP Gold Cup in November but had failed four times at Graded level after scoring here at Cheltenham as a novice.
VERDICT: Philip Hobbs had an amazing handicap run before Christmas but Santa seemed to take away his toys, and he struggled badly through Cheltenham.
The positioning of Wishfull Thinking and Cloud Creeper here smacks of an old fashioned handicap heist, and Hobbs deserves to come away with the prize.
Any one of the also-rans could bounce back, but I was happy with my 8.0 Cloud Creeper.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes limited to win 20)
BET 10pts win (Jumps nap) MISTER MIYAGI (1.50 Cheltenham)
BET 2.3pts win and place HEART OF LIONS (2.10 Newmarket)
BET 2.8pts win CLOUD CREEPER (3.35 Cheltenham)
BET 5.8pts win (Flat nap) IBN MALIK (3.55 Newmarket)
BET 2.7pts win and place MAHSOOB, and 3pts win (stakes saver) AIR PILOT (4.30 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Mister Miyagi (1.50 Cheltenham), Gifted Master (3.20 Newmarket) and Ibn Malik (3.55 Newmarket)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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