RACING TODAY: BANKERS DOUBLE: Look out today for a double of bankers on the AW cards this afternoon and tonight, one of them napped. Daqman’s best bets stand at:
Bankers 111111132121311U
Naps 1112
RACING AHEAD: FESTIVAL DAY-2: Daqman introduces an ante-post bet for the RSA Chase, as he continues his race-by race guide to each day at the festival, a week in advance. Today is Day 2 for next Wednesday’s racing.
THEATRE CENTRE STAGE AT CHELTENHAM
1.30 Cheltenham, next Wednesday (Neptune Novices Hurdle): Some 109 possibles, up 35 on last year. But delete seven-year-olds, those without Graded win or place form, and those rated below 142 or Irish equivalent.
Then deduct failure to win at or around the 2m 5f, and only nine tick all the boxes, including Ordo Ab Chao, Parlour Games, Shaneshill and Vyta Du Roc.
Shaneshill’s trainer, Willie Mullins, still has 18 in the race, including Nichols Canyon. Seven of his last 12 Neptune runners have won (three) or been placed.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: The market on the day provides the answer: nine of the last 10 winners were 17-2 or shorter at SP.
2.05 Cheltenham, Wednesday (RSA Chase): The winner already has class and inevitably comes from the ratings band of 145-156, despite having only three to five chases under his belt.
He’s aged seven (that age group is 9-10) and he hasn’t been out of the frame on his last three starts.
Recognise him? He’s Apache Stronghold, King’s Palace or Southfield Theatre, though Kings Palace has yet to make his mark at Graded level.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: It’s 20.0 bar five, but my original bet, Apache Stronghold, is more likely to go for the JLT, and Coneygree for the Gold Cup, while the favourite for this, Don Poli, fails to tick several boxes and, in any case, has three possible engagements at the festival.
Coneygree’s runaway Kempton win followed the departure of front-runner Carraig Mor (unseated rider) who had pipped Southfield Theatre at Newbury on the soft when receiving weight.
The kudos of Southfield Theatre is growing. Now that Paul Nicholls has decided that he misses the NH Chase to go for this, we really only have one or two certain runners at the front of the BETDAQ RSA market, which suggests that we ought to wallet a bit of Southfield Theatre at 8.8.
Southfield Theatre goes well at Cheltenham (close second in last year’s Pertemps Final), clearly has stamina-plus for this test, and will enjoy the sounder surface (warmer weather sets in this weekend, according to the forecasters).
2.40 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Coral Cup): Older horses off a featherweight (five out of six with no more than 10st 3lb from 1993 to 1998) used to win this.
But, since then, as quality has increased, 12 of the last 13 winners have been aged from five to seven, with – since 2003 – seven winners racing off 10st 12lb or more.
So it is that three of the last four have been rated 141-148, in which range Paul Nicholls relies on Le Mercurey and Calipto, and Willie Mullins can choose from Pont Alexandre, Un Atout and Arbre De Vie.
Nicky Henderson also has three in the right place in the handicap: Rolling Star, Lyvius, and Hammersley Lake.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Clever placing of horses is part of the trainer’s art. Watch out when the decs come out for the selections of these three champion handlers, who have all engineered good positions at the weights.
3.20 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Champion Chase): The winner of this is aged from five to nine, must have had at least seven chase starts, finished in the first three in a Graded race and have been in the frame in all of his last four completed starts.
Those stats suggest that you look no further than Mr Mole, Simply Ned, Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: While the last two winners of this race were under a cloud, I took 5.1 Dodging Bullets but, even though Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy are back in form, ‘Dodge’ has eased only a point in the BETDAQ market. A great scrap is in prospect if all three get safely to post.
4.00 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Cross-Country): The same horses win this year on year (Spot The Difference, Garde Champetre, Balthazar King),
But the stats say you must have a runner aged eight to 12, off 10st 9lb or less (6 out of 8), which is a black mark, weights wise, against last year’s runner-up Any Currency, who heads the betting.
The race got a quality result last year when the bottomweights were finally confounded by Balthazar King from the top of the handicap, but the shape of the race is in turmoil today after Gordon Elliott last night signalled that top-weight Roi Du Mee would miss the race.
If he’d stayed in, it might have tempted 10 times (yes, TEN) French cross-country winner, Toutancarmont, to come over, nicely poised off 10st 12lb.
But a change in the weights could hike into the reckoning horses like Punchestown Grand National Trial third Are Ya Right Chief (W Mullins) and North Yorkshire Grand National winner Scotswell.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Back to the drawing-board.
4.40 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle): An official rating of 127-130 traps the winner of this four years out of five, but look at the SPs! The last three seasons have seen 40-1, 33-1 and 25-1.
Check around 11st 2lb or lower, where suitably rated are Beatabout The Bush (33.0 on BETDAQ), Sebastian Beach (27.0), Zafayan 33.0), Tarabiyn (33.0) Blue Atlantic (41.0) and Norse Legend (41.0). Mick Jazz is announced a non-runner, so the offers may be changing as I write.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Two or three of those will be weeded out, and I shall seriously consider the others on the day.
5.15 Cheltenham, Wednesday (Champion Bumper): Ireland is 8-10, five-year-olds are 5-8 and your bet must be lightly-raced: one-three runs only (8-8).
Despite top trainers winning this (W Mullins 4), the SPs have been 40-1, 33-1, 25-1, 16-1 (twice), 14-1, 12-1. It can’t be taken seriously.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Wait For Me (12.0)! I get the General Principle (15.0 offers) but De Name Escapes Me (39.0). Neatly Put (132.0), Daqman!
TRYSTER DESERVES HAT-TRICK AT KEMPTON
CATTERICK: Oh, the slow crawl to Cheltenham! They could have run these fields in just a couple of races, excepting the bumper, for which Midnight Tour (5.10) is being touted. But there are a couple of improvers on the AW.
LINGFIELD: To describe the unraced Hakam (3.30) as an ‘improver’ sounds odd but, in fact, he has been put to his work at home with older horses, and already appeared twice on the racetrack in private gallops here at Lingfield.
So he is expected to take a leap forward in his first competitive contest. Even Shiekh Hamdan would like a little bit back from his $450,000 outlay.
KEMPTON: Exposed older horses meet three four-year-old improvers in the class-2 handicap over 10 furlongs (6.45) tonight.
Tryster has won two at this level, while Beach Bar has struggled in class 3 and The Gay Cavalier has been class 4 at best.
Theoretically, the trio are weighted accordingly, but class usually tells and, in any case, the lightly-raced Tryster (five runs, three wins) is claimed off, which tips the balance.
The Gay Cavalier, a dual Kempton winner, races within seven days with a nominal 6lb penalty but, judged on those horses he’s beaten, he doesn’t merit that much.
DAQMAN (staked 1 to 9, banker 10 points; except ante-post bet)
BANKER: BET 10pts win HAKAM (3.30 Lingfield)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) TRYSTER (6.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win double HAKAM (3.30 Lingfield) and TRYSTER (6.45 Kempton) and 2pts win treble the same two with MIDNIGHT TOUR (5.10 Catterick)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 40): 5pts win SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (RSA Chase, Cheltenham, Wednesday)
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