HOW TO FOLLOW SMART STABLES: Daqman today checks out some ideas behind following consistent stables. He picks two trainers, James Fanshawe and Roger Charlton, and examines their records over the last 14 days.
STUNNER ON THE CARD TONIGHT: He naps a ‘Stunner’ at Fairyhouse tonight, hoping for better luck than yesterday when one horse started with its leg trapped in the stalls and another lost its action during the race and tailed off. Says Daqman: No jokes please about the first leg of a double!
ECLIPSE STAKES ABC TOMORROW: Tomorrow don’t miss Daqman’s ABC guide of stats, facts and form in his focus on Saturday’s Eclipse Stakes at Sandown.
HOW TO FOLLOW SMART STABLES
I can’t follow trainers because of too many runners. So says my reader in Margate in an old-fashioned e-mail (whatever he is, he’s not a tweet).
The answer is that you can’t follow anything – horses, favourites, trainers, stats – unless you have a second (preferably third and fourth) reason for backing a horse that qualifies.
That’s why I’m doing an ABC guide on the Eclipse tomorrow, to try to find several logical supports to a selection in the race. Or not.
But, in the matter of trainers, I suggest that Tweetless of Margate tries following the yards with fewer runners as a first step to setting up a method of elimination and staking.
I can think of two trainers who are selective with their entries and you can usually make enough assumptions to know when to back their horses.
JAMES FANSHAWE: His results over the last fortnight have been 23301300320134004133. Not at first glance particularly promising.
But, if you delete all the rank outsiders (at 66-1 and 25-1) and those that drifted in the betting (12-1 and 11-2) and treat his favourites as savers only, you end up with 233103014413, with his winners (9-2, 8-1 and 11-2).
Win singles on those gave you nine points profit to a level stake, and place bets produced returns eight times out of 12.
I leave out favourites because I wanted a value test. In any case, they require a different inquiry and staking plan, all of which we’ll come to another tine.
There are other ploys I use for different trainers. In Fanshawe’s case, I wouldn’t back a winner last time out. He goes for a winning peak with his horses, not a plateau, unless they are very high class. Similarly with my next man.
ROGER CHARLTON: 20100110321023131420 which, with those eliminations, comes down to 132231320.
Even though most of winners were favourites (at 4-6, evens, 5-6, and evens again) we ended up on two at 4-1 and 7-1 which gave us a profit of four points overall and place bets produced eight returns out of nine.
This is just a guide to the kind of weeding you need when you assess stables with a view to making a profit (form figures correct up to end of racing July 3).
For instance, those four favourites up out of five raise a green flag. Could it be that you can make even more by following Charlton jollys?
I recommend that, instead of just studying form blind, you come to each race preprepared with selective trainers.
Try to spot what to back and what not to back, and when. Be a predator. Hunt down the winners that matter.
I’m not giving away all my secrets. And You don’t have to adopt my particular tick-boxes. Invent some of your own and check them out.
Remember trainers are creatures of habit. You might find tracks where they excel, races they farm. You might turn up a yard which wins with ‘hidden horses’, disguised as to trip and ground.
With such a vast range of opportunities on BETDAQ , you’ve never had it so good. There’s no reason why we shouldn’t all make money, esxchanging our dieas as bets in an almost level-playing.
STUNNER ON THE CARD TONIGHT
4.30 Thirsk Whichever quality race you look at today, you’ll find Roger Varian on the card. He’s ‘doing the business’, and has ‘laid his stall out,’ as the old racing writers used to say.
But, just as I was contemplating his Commander in this one, he was scrubbed out. So I quickly grabbed a bit of 15.0 Thomas Cranmer, as a Royal Ascot runner now likely to return to front-running tactics, as so many Mark Johnston’s do.
6.50 Fairyhouse Roger Varian raided The Curragh on Sunday and bagged the Pretty Polly Stakes with Nezwaah.
He is joined by Ralph Beckett today for a crack at another Irish Group race, the Brownstown Stakes, both trainers saddling older horses.
Three-year-olds have certainly struggled here, with just two winners in the last eight years, and their favourite in this, Rehana, is quirky.
Reinstating her Athasi Stakes winning jockey, Shane Foley, could help. So, too, a first-time hood. But, beaten in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial and then in the Curragh Guineas itself, she hasn’t improved a pound this year. In fact, officially, she’s down a pound.
Asking had to be dropped to a handicap to score and Elusive Beauty looks exposed after eight races this year.
Varian’s Realtra has underperformed since winning the Sceptre Stakes as a three-year-old, blinkers first time reviving her at Lingfield but they are left off now.
Beckett’s Golden Stunner is just about the only progressive sort in the race, up 11lb this year, and value for an exchange at around 3-1 this morning.
7.30 Bath Trainer Varian might get the travel money back via Fujaira Bridge who was overfaced in the Dee Stakes behind Cliffs Of Moher and then suffered from the slow pace at Yarmouth.
He has front-running I’vegotthepower to keep them honest, and the ground seems too firm for Pillar Of Society on what we know.
7.40 Kempton Roger Varian’s runner here, Gibbs Hill, is blinkered first time with Ryan Moore up, taken on again by Marmajuke Bay, who ran up to him at Wolverhampton.
I prefer a bit each way on James Fanshawe’s Regicide, ligjtly raced so a possible improver, particularly with the step up in trip: nice 7.0 offers on BETDAQ. Yes, we’re back with Fanshawe.. and Charlton, too!
8.10 Kempton Roger Charlton admits to a speculative entry for Clowance One, hoping the extra distance suits. That doesn’t read like a hot favourite and, indeed, he’s being challenged at the front of the market by CD-winner King Calypso as I write.
But surely the progressive filly Multigifted deserves a punt at 8.2, up in grade but claimed off and getting between 11lb and 19lb from the older horses who are not going to find much on the form we know.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 1.5pts win and place THOMAS CRANMER (4.30 Thirsk)
BET 7pts win (nap) GOLDEN STUNNER (6.50 Fairyhouse)
BET 8.5pts win FUJAIRA BRIDGE (7.30 Bath)
BET 3.3pts win and place REGICIDE (7.40 Kempton)
BET 2.75pts win and place MULTIGIFTED (8.10 Kempton)
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