FREEDOM TO WIN MONEY AT FAIRYHOUSE: Ludlow, Carlisle and Fakenham have all gone, leaving Daqman with no hope of starting his Premier League naps, or even attempting a Supernap. It’s all down to AW in England again – Chelmsford and Wolverhampton – but Fairyhouse has a bit of class running loose with a horse called Freedom that might land a decent-priced nap.
BIG CHANCE FOR CLASSY BAY
3.50 Fairyhouse Best race on the card but with four of the stables badly out of form, struggling on a total of 688 days without a single winner among them, including the trainer of Call It Magic, which last won in October (He Rock’s well beaten off).
Connections of Drumacoo, Portrait King and Westerner Point are also in the doldrums, and with all three horses dubious on form, something with a touch of class could be value.
Kerry National third Bay of Freedom, has been raced at a much higher level, including Graded contests, since winning a Listed at Listowel.
It was very close at the front of the market with 0.65 points separating three horses but, thanks to the low, low overround of 106%, BETDAQ could offer me 4.0 Bay of Freedom. Thankyou guys.
A few minutes later, I could get a similar price in a similar market situation about Captain Lars. Let me explain. Let me suggest a little double. Or five.
CAPTAIN CONDITIONS RIGHT
4.00 Chelmsford Archie Watson is in great form, particularly up to a mile. The returns for his last 11 runners of 41124121200 become 41241210 at the shorter distances and, with today’s jockey on board, read 12212.
Captain Lars is blinkered first time for his stable debut and back to 6f, for which his form since November is 101, the first of those wins here at Chelmsford.
Inexplicably, he’s been dropped 2lb below his last winning form of only a fortnight ago. The blinds are back on today, albeit blinkers as opposed to a visor, which has helped him to all his success in the last two years or so.
Captain Lars has been ridden in his last five starts by 7lb claimers, but has a senior jockey on board today.
Excellent George’s two AW wins have been in class 5 – one of them here at Chelmsford – and his class 4 AW form is 0002043.
Dutiful Son’s recent success has been in class 5 and 6, and Simon Dow has let him go. Now with Emma Owen.
Tavener is 000032000 when raced above class 5, and is paying for his last success (7lb higher). Duke Cosimo’s two AW wins have come 54 months apart; Bernie Boy’s 22 months.
UNFORGIVING STALLS BIAS ..
6.25 Wolverhampton A class-3 race, an island of some quality in the dross of the day. But the stats say that it isn’t worth the hours of study, pouring over each horse’s form.
We will have a close look anyway, but no horse has taken this over the age of five and none not drawn in the first two stalls!
That’s only a four-year sample but, since we have a young horse in stall 2 for a trainer who won it in 2016, we are quickly backed up against The Great Wall.
Very lightly raced, so unexposed, Wall won a mile at Southwell; 19 lengths, in fact, beating nothing well, towards the turn of the year.
But his subsequent flop when even-money favourite on the same course five days later should not be held against him, since it is always possible that he was out again too soon.
Hayadh is best drawn of the five-year-olds (in 4) and has the best form of the entire race, a Group-2 contender in the summer and an autumn winner (gelded) for John Gosden at class-2 level. But we’re talking about 2015. He’s been absent 840 days, now switched to Rebecca Bastiman.
Gelding Tom Dascombe’s Mickey (be careful how your phrase that, Daqman!) did not have the desired effect on the last day, and cheekpieces are brought in for added coercion.
Six times a Southwell winner on the ‘sand’, Custard The Dragon (stall 10) has form much less inspiring on Tapeta: 200220.
Of the older horses, Right Touch (stall 3), often thereabouts at this level and even higher, hasn’t won since July 2016 but the switch to Tapeta could make the difference.
He may win it but trainer Richard Fahey is missing strike badly, throwing his arrows from the oche as if they are flightless. Form figures a desperate 020443022433 since the last day of the old year, including two losing favourites, one at odds on. No wins from 35 starters in 26 days on AW.
Exchequer, a winner for Richard Hannon and David Brown, has gone close for David O’Meara, including over CD on today’s course, when he was hampered from gate 9. He’s now in 8.
The winner that day was Twin Appeal, who had a better stall in 3. But he is worse off at the weights and in the draw positions today (races from 6). Stable out of form.
Dougan is a winner here over 6f and a close second over 7f, and returns after a break with Adam Kirby booked. Can he overcome trap 12.
Unforgiving Minute, huge at 10.5 on BETFDAQ early mouse, won twice in lower class last autumn, including here from stall 3.
He’s in the one stall today off the same mark and was the ‘moral’ here over CD in December (from gate 5), giving more than a stone to the grand old campaigner Tatlisu, beaten only a neck.
VERDICT: Though his stable is 0-27 in the last month or so, the freegoing Unforgiving Minute looks a flagbearer im the yard and couldn’t be better placed to go for it here. The Great Wall, in the adjacent stall, may well bounce back after a holiday, and 8.6 is a very decent offer.
DAQMAN BETS (each to win 20 points)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) BAY OF FREEDOM (3.50 Fairyhouse)
BET 6.5pts win CAPTAIN LARS (4.00 Chelmsford)
BET 2.75pts win and place THE GREAT WALL and 2pts win and place UNFORGIVING MINUTE (6.25 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1 win trebles the horses above.
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